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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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College Football Picks: Wisconsin, Ohio State and San Diego State



(307) Oregon St. (308) Wisconsin (odds: -21 ½) 12:00 PM EST
: Following a highly disappointing 5-7 SU season in 2010 it would not surprise that Oregon St. returned to the winning side of the ledger in 2011. There’s little question it will be an uphill battle as highly respected HC Riley figures to be 0-2 SU following this visit to Wisconsin in which his Beavers will be suiting up at 10:00AM body time. The dichotomous results of week 1 combined with early public money to push this line 10 points higher than what it would have been last week. It may not matter. State suffered the humiliation of a 29-28 OT loss to Sac St. Despite outgaining the Hornets overland 266-71 and turning in a balanced offensive performance in which they passed for 230 yards. In that defeat they suffered costly losses to both defensive tackles. Clearly that is a negative against a Wisconsin ground attack led by NC State transfer QB Wilson. They led outmanned UNLV 51-3 mid-third quarter before pulling the starters. The end result, a 51-17 victory (-1 AFP) was far worse than the final score as the Badgers ran and passed for 241+ yards. Remember, this is a Wisconsin team that finished the season 7-0 ATS in 2010 with a net +105 AFP in those contests. Lots of negatives for the Beavers in this one, not the least of which is that HC Riley cares little about these pre-season contest. Witness his 2-12 ATS mark in September road games. Free College Football Pick: Wisconsin Badgers

(311) Central Michigan vs. (312) Kentucky (odds: -12 ½) 12:00PM EST ESPN-U: These two are off miserable offensive performances in week 1, in which they both won but did not cover as favorite. In winning 21-6 vs. South Carolina St. the Chips had a yardage edge of 256-137. Kentucky struggled vs. in –state foe Western Kentucky winning 14-3, but being outgained 234-190 by the ‘Toppers. Strongest unit on the field, however, will be a Kentucky defense that returns 10 yet the offense is so lethargic that it is hard to recommend a play on them as double-digit home favorite, despite the obvious class difference between the SEC and MAC.

(313) San Diego St. (odds: -9 ½) vs. (314) Army 12:00 PM EST CBSC: New SD St. HC Rocky Long brings his minions 3,000 miles to play at 9:00 AM body time on the Banks of the Hudson. A fundamental case can be made for Aztecs success as Long is a veteran defensive oriented coach. He has the advantage of coaching a defense who in the last season has faced the option attacks of Air Force (27-25), Navy (35-14) in a Bowl and CAL POLY SLO in week 1, whom he defeated 49-21. In that contest he outrushed the Mustangs 289-137 and put up a balanced 203 PY. In short, despite retuning only 5 on defense they will be well prepared for the Army attack. The Cadets 49-26 loss at NIU was phony in so many ways. Army had 3 fumbles and a blocked punt in the first half resulting in an eventual 39-6 half-time hole they eventually trailed 49-6 before meaningless late game scores. The reality is, however, this offense was never going to make up that margin. Aztec backers will further point to the fact that Army is just 3-12 ATS HD. Again this week they may struggle with a high power passing attack, this time led by veteran QB Lindley. None the less, the divergent results of last week has led to an adjustment of over a TD in this line. Following a game 1 embarrassing loss, look for Army to play with far more focus coming in under this inflated number vs. a team who is far from home at a unique football playing time.

(315) Toledo vs. (316) Ohio St (odds: -19) 12:00PM EST  BIG10: The Luke Fickell era got off to a positive start with a 42-0 whipping of Akron (+9 AFP). They outgained the Zip’s 517-90 to push their recent record to 10-0 ATS vs. non-con foes. It will be an easy leap to believe they will likewise destroy another MAC rep, in-state foe Toledo. As MAC followers will attest it is a long leap from Akron to Toledo who is quit possibly the worst and best this league has to offer. Yet, despite Toledo’s week 1 thumping of New Hampshire 58-22(+26 AFP) this line has actually been adjusted by nearly a TD in OHIO ST. favor. That’s just wrong! The Rockets ran and passed for 287+ yards in that win as well as profiting from a +5 in the turnover column. Should Ohio St. be looking past this foe, they need only to inquire of Purdue and Michigan. Each of whom have lost to the Rockets in the last 3 years. And you know this Toledo team who with 18 RS, is one of the most experienced in the land, will be bringing all of their weapons vs. Big brother.

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I was born in Oakmont, PA – a couple blocks from the world famous Oakmont Country Club, before it became world famous. I attended Denison University in Granville, Ohio, where I played varsity basketball... Read more

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