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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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College Football Picks: Michigan State, Penn State and Miami (FL)




Free College Football Pick for Eastern Michigan at Penn State (-29) 12:00 PM EST ESPN2: After 3 weeks, who would have expected to look at the stats and find Eastern Michigan averaging 290/6.4 overland while Penn State was averaging just 148/3.9 overland.  I am fully aware of the SOS difference including early season EMU romps vs. outmanned Howard and Alabama State in which they rushed for 662 yards.  Though the Michigan defense is still improving from the debacle of the Rich Rod season, EMU was able to run for 202 yards against them in an ATS win last week.  Remember, there is a lot of value playing on this team who in 2 previous seasons under HC English was -14 net TOs and – accumulative 180 AFP in going 8-15-1 ATS.  Yet, we get full value despite the Lions 0-3 ATS record because of the perception reality scenario.  The Paternos have just been off a pair of meat grinders vs. Alabama and Temple in which they could score only 25 combined points.  But even against lowly Indiana State in Game #1, a 41-7 win as -36, they could only put up 359 yards.  With the Big 10 season directly ahead, the Lions may want to get some confidence for their QB tandem.  But just a little bit of ball control by EMU will be enough to bring this under the number.  This is confirmed by history which shows Penn State on a 5-10 ATS slide, 3-7 ATS home of late, and 1-6 ATS -10 or more on this field vs. NC foes. 

College Football Picks for Kansas State at Miami (FL) (-12-) 12:30 PM EST ESPNU: I am well aware of the SOS diff in this game as K State has beaten EKU and Kent State by a combined 47-7 while Miami has been battling Maryland and Ohio State.  Yet, there must be a bit of a letdown factor involved here for Miami following their National TV revenge victory vs. Ohio State last Saturday.  That win was for real as they outgained OSU 363-209.  Despite the weak SOS, it may be the improved Kansas State defense which is the better stop unit on the field.  They have allowed just 165 YPG and 3.5 PPG.  Road dogs following a shut out win are a long term profitable situation in CFB.  Please also note the strong success of the Wild Cats in this role (9-3 ATS as underdog) while Miami has long underachieved at 12-22 ATS at this site. New HC Golden enters on just a 7-6 ATS run in this role while at Temple.  With 83 rush attempts and just 51 pass attempts, it is clear that Golden wants to install a ball control offense.  I see that for the greater good in the long term but against this tough Kansas State defensive front allowing just 64/2.1, it may play right into the Wild Cats philosophy. 

Football Pick for Central Michigan at Michigan State (-24) 12:00 PM EST ESPNU: CMU had some great seasons under the coaching tandem of Brian Kelly and Butch Jones.  But the Dan Enos era will have a tough time matching that success.  After covering his first 3 games in 2010, Enos is now 2-9 ATS on the run including 0-3 ATS this season.  A microcosm of that decline came in last week’s loss at Western Michigan, a rival whom they had beaten 5 consecutive times.  But the 44-14 Western final said it all.  After 5 consecutive winning seasons and 4 Bowl games, the Chips fell to 3-9 SU in 2010.  Please note that Enos is a former assistant at Michigan State.  In fact, he was on the sidelines when the Chips upset the Spartans 29-27 in 2009. Despite this being sandwiched between Notre Dame and Ohio State, I don’t see State HC Dantonio taking this game lightly.  They are 6-2 ATS following battles with the Irish including 3-1 ATS under Dantonio.  The 31-13 loss last week was a bit misleading as the Spartans actually outgained Notre Dame 358-275.  Unlikely the impotent CMU offense at 16 PPG will challenge the highly ranked Spartan defense.  That leaves the cover at the whim of Dantonio who may decide to take no prisoners. 

 Movie  Free Picks:  -- Best Bet from Marco D'Angelo
What college football bettors need to know about Vanderbilt at South Carolina (Saturday, September 24, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including a free best bet from Marco D'Angelo and analysis from host RJ Bell.