Free College Football Pick for Eastern
Michigan at Penn State (-29) 12:00 PM EST ESPN2: After 3 weeks, who would have expected
to look at the stats and find Eastern Michigan averaging 290/6.4 overland while
Penn State was averaging just 148/3.9 overland. I am fully aware of the SOS difference including early
season EMU romps vs. outmanned Howard and Alabama State in which they rushed
for 662 yards. Though the Michigan
defense is still improving from the debacle of the Rich Rod season, EMU was
able to run for 202 yards against them in an ATS win last week. Remember, there is a lot of value playing
on this team who in 2 previous seasons under HC English was -14 net TOs and –
accumulative 180 AFP in going 8-15-1 ATS.
Yet, we get full value despite the Lions 0-3 ATS record because of the
perception reality scenario. The
Paternos have just been off a pair of meat grinders vs. Alabama and Temple in
which they could score only 25 combined points. But even against lowly Indiana State in Game #1, a 41-7 win
as -36, they could only put up 359 yards.
With the Big 10 season directly ahead, the Lions may want to get some
confidence for their QB tandem.
But just a little bit of ball control by EMU will be enough to bring
this under the number. This is
confirmed by history which shows Penn State on a 5-10 ATS slide, 3-7 ATS home
of late, and 1-6 ATS -10 or more on this field vs. NC foes.
College Football Picks for Kansas
State at Miami (FL) (-12-) 12:30 PM EST ESPNU: I am well aware of the SOS diff in this
game as K State has beaten EKU and Kent State by a combined 47-7 while Miami
has been battling Maryland and Ohio State. Yet, there must be a bit of a letdown factor involved here
for Miami following their National TV revenge victory vs. Ohio State last
Saturday. That win was for real as
they outgained OSU 363-209.
Despite the weak SOS, it may be the improved Kansas State defense which
is the better stop unit on the field.
They have allowed just 165 YPG and 3.5 PPG. Road dogs following a shut out win are a long term
profitable situation in CFB.
Please also note the strong success of the Wild Cats in this role (9-3
ATS as underdog) while Miami has long underachieved at 12-22 ATS at this site. New
HC Golden enters on just a 7-6 ATS run in this role while at Temple. With 83 rush attempts and just 51 pass
attempts, it is clear that Golden wants to install a ball control offense. I see that for the greater good in the
long term but against this tough Kansas State defensive front allowing just
64/2.1, it may play right into the Wild Cats philosophy.
Football Pick for Central
Michigan at Michigan State (-24) 12:00 PM EST ESPNU: CMU had some great seasons under the
coaching tandem of Brian Kelly and Butch Jones. But the Dan Enos era will have a tough time matching that
success. After covering his first
3 games in 2010, Enos is now 2-9 ATS on the run including 0-3 ATS this
season. A microcosm of that
decline came in last week’s loss at Western Michigan, a rival whom they had
beaten 5 consecutive times. But
the 44-14 Western final said it all.
After 5 consecutive winning seasons and 4 Bowl games, the Chips fell to
3-9 SU in 2010. Please note that
Enos is a former assistant at Michigan State. In fact, he was on the sidelines when the Chips upset the
Spartans 29-27 in 2009. Despite this being sandwiched between Notre Dame and
Ohio State, I don’t see State HC Dantonio taking this game lightly. They are 6-2 ATS following battles with
the Irish including 3-1 ATS under Dantonio. The 31-13 loss last week was a bit misleading as the
Spartans actually outgained Notre Dame 358-275. Unlikely the impotent CMU offense at 16 PPG will challenge
the highly ranked Spartan defense.
That leaves the cover at the whim of Dantonio who may decide to take no
Free Picks: -- Best Bet from Marco D'Angelo
What college football bettors need to know about Vanderbilt at South Carolina (Saturday, September 24, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including a free best bet from Marco D'Angelo and analysis from host RJ Bell.