Texas A&M (odds -4 1/2) at Kansas State 3:30PM ABC: The technicians will be all over the home-standing Wildcats and HC Snyder. They realize that K State is now 13-6 ATS as underdog since Snyder's return. Already they have beaten Baylor and Missouri in this role this season. They enter at 7-2 SU, on a 7-1 ATS run. But in their last opportunity on this field, they allowed Oklahoma to ring up 58 points against them. That defensive effort was followed last week by an allowance of 52 points in a 7 point loss at Ok State. That happened despite the fact that Kansas State succeeded in their "four corners offense" by winning the clock 41/19, running 51 times for 276 yards, while holding the Cowboys to just 73 yards overland. But they got torched through the airways for 502 yards. Enter A&M, a 25-41 loser at Oklahoma last week to drop to 5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS. Those ATS failures have resulted in a greatly over adjusted line. IN LW's game at Oklahoma, they actually outgained the Sooners 527-404. They passed for 379 yards. Again this week, they will succeed through the airways against this Kansas State secondary that allows 303 PY. And the Wildcats, who average just 142 PYPG, will do little to prosper against the secondary of A&M which is their Achilles' heel. But the real reason this selection succeeds is that a Kansas State ground game 216/4.5 will not succeed against an Aggie defensive front allowing just 110/3.0. Free College Football Pick: The combination of the above makes this a far easier than expected double digit victory for an A&M team who is in dire need of a win following consecutive losses.
West Virginia at Cincinnati (odds -3 1/2) Noon ABC Paul Brown Stadium: The key to this selection is the progression of these programs. After years of dominance in the Big East, the Mounties are struggling for consistency under first year HC Holgorsen. Their pass offense is prolific at 361 PYPG. But the defense has under-performed, allowing 27 PPG. Already, they have lost to Louisville and Syracuse as double digit favorite. None of their six victories are against a team as good as Cincinnati. After some big years under former HC Kelly, the Bearcats regressed to 4-8 SUATS last year in HC Jones first season. But Cincinnati has been on a MISSION this year, standing 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 3-0 in Big East play and winners of six straight. Follow the better balanced offense led by QB Collaros and a defense that has allowed just 20 PPG.
Notre Dame (odds -20) vs Maryland 7:30PM NBC FedEx Field: Not even the sight of Notre Dame on NBC Saturday night at FedEx field can save the Turtle from their TOWEL TOSSING season. It is clear that this is a lost season for first year HC Edsall, at the helm of Maryland. I identified them three weeks ago as a TOWEL TOSSER after their gut-wrenching 56-45 home loss to Clemson, a game they led by 18 points. Since that time, they have gone 0-3 SUATS, losing by 43 points ATS. Last week, on their home field, they laid down for us in our 31-13 STEAMROLLER GOY with Virginia. This is an explosive Notre Dame offense averaging 32 PPG and 428 yards against defenses that are way better than this one. We can only lay the inflated number against the team that will once again be hard-pressed to come with a competitive effort.
Free Picks: TCU at Boise State - Best Bet from Bryan Leonard
Boise State home field over valued and Both teams have played historically close games plus other factors college football bettors need to know about Oregon at Stanford (Saturday, November 12, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including a free best bet from Bryan Leonard and analysis from Vegas Runner.