157 UCLA vs.158 Houston (betting odds:-3) 3:30 PM
EST FSN
Behind QB Keenum
Houston will be an improved team from their 5-7 SU 3-9 ATS team of LY. They
will be plenty focused for this 31-13
season opening revenge game on their home turf. In that meeting LY both
QB Kennum and his back up QB Turner were lost in the first half. The Houston
offense will be complemented by solid ground threat. But this figures to be
even a bigger turn around season for the Bruins, who were 4-8 SU ATS in 2010.
Much of that came courtesy of a -11 net turnover margin leading to a -59 AAFP
for the season. But 17 RS , including 8+ on each side of the ball make the
Bruins one of my top 5 experienced teams. Neither of these coaches has
performed particularly well in the role, as Neuheisel is just 7-16 ATS as dog,
while Sumlin is just 7-13 ATS as fav. It must be noted, however, that most of
these records are amassed against conference foes. Of greater note is UCLAs
recent record of 8-2 ATS vs. NC. UCLA has a far superior defense and should be
much more consistent on offense in the second year of their switch to the
Pistol offense. Live dog, wrong team favored.
159 Western Michigan vs.160 Michigan
(betting odds:-14) 3:30 PM EST ABC
The Rich Rod years
were a disaster for Michigan. He was 10-27 ATS, 0-9 ATS to end 2010. He was an
equally poor 5-15 ATS his favorite. Only a part of that ATS log can be
attributed to the fact they were -10 turnovers LY. The bottom line is this was
a disastrous defensive team that allowed 36 PPG in 2010. The sad part is this
is a once proud defense that allowed 28 + points in each of the two previous
years. In short it will take new HC Brady Hoke a couple of years to rebuild the
talent on the defensive side of the ball. In the long-term he will accomplish
this goal, making money for us along the way. His 21-14 ATS log L3Y at Ball
State and S.D State attest to that. For now, however, he is faced with a home
opener against a rival underdog with a look ahead to Notre Dame next week.
Though Western Mich. is just 10-16 ATS away of late this is a rivalry road dog
who will be playing with super emotion against Big Brother. The Broncos have a
potentially explosive offense behind QB Carder and a greatly improved defense.
WMU coach Cubit is familiar with Hoke from his years at Ball St. No doubt, there will be a bit of
contempt. Rivalry dog is the way to play here if you are tuning into ABC for
this.
161 Minnesota vs. 162 USC (betting odds: -23) 3:30 PM
EST ABC
Each of these teams
in on my play against list. The Gophers take to the highway for game 1 with a
new HC, Jerry Kill, and virgin QB who is a converted wide receiver. Hard to
believe there will be immediate success. But for the Trojans it is "Air in haste,
repent at leisure." Their 8-5 record of 2010 may be the best they do with the
probation years still ahead of them. Find it highly doubtful that HC Kiffin is
the man to guide them through these troubled waters. And his dad, a renowned
defensive guru, did little to support that reputation last season. He authored
a stop unit that allowed 27 PPG and 400 YPG. Yet the mental seems to be all on
their side as there are few expectations for the Gopher while there is plenty
to prove for the home team.
163 South Florida vs.164 Notre Dame
(betting odds: -10) 3:30 P EST NBC
As always the line
maker is showing Notre Dame plenty of love. This year he can back it up as the
Irish feature 17 RS for second year HC Brian Kelly. He guided Dame to an 8-5 SU
mark in his maiden voyage. That included 4 consecutive wins to close the
season. Key intangible in their return to national significance is a loosening
of the reins by an administration that seems to once again have made football a
priority( note: hand slaps for indiscretions that would have previously resulted
in much harsher punishments). On the opposing bench is second year HC Skip Holtz
who will be celebrating his home coming on a field where he both played and
coached some 20 years ago. Look for vast improvement in the USF offense now
that QB Thomas is maturing into the Bulls leader. Holtz has a long term history
of success in this role, logging a 27-10 ATS mark as underdog at ECU and USF,
including 4-2 ATS LY. As many of the Big East teams have learned S. Florida has
one dominant advantage against many northern teams. Expect this speed advantage to be on display this afternoon
making USF the odds on play to do no worse than come through the back door.
Free Picks: South Florida at Notre Dame Betting
What college football bettors need to know about South Florida at Notre
Dame (Saturday, September 3rd, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including
predictions from Marco D'Angelo and analysis from host RJ Bell.