Force at Navy (-2-) 12:00 PM EST CBS: Each of these teams is again running
the option with aplomb this season.
And each of the defenses has again proven to be a bit problematic. That may be slightly more true for Air
Force who has allowed 184 RYPG to each of 2 opponents. And they didn’t even sniff their only
true opponent in a 35-19 loss to TCU.
The bottom line numbers show the Fly Boys at 0-3 ATS. When compared to Navy’s 3-0 ATS record,
it favors Air Force with a -75 net AFP diff. That would normally be an automatic play for us on Air
Force. But this line has barely
been adjusted since opening week meaning the AFP, in this case, has not done
its job of creating value. As a
result, we will favor a Navy team who played far better in their only true test
at South Carolina, a 24-21 loss as plus 15. And clearly favor the revenge factor for the home team for a
14-6 loss at Air Force which snapped their 7 game winning streak against the
Fly Boys, and 7th consecutive year in which they captured the CIC
Forest (-2-) at Boston College 12:30 PM EST: Following a 3-9 SU season of 2010, some
may consider Wake’s 2-1 SU, ATS start to imply a turnaround with 17 RS. Yet, those results have been phony at
best. The first week was a road
loss at Syracuse in which they choked the game. Week #2 was a home win vs. injured NC State and Week #3 is
G. Webb, who is awful. This team
is still not going anywhere. Their downfall begins today. Under HC Spaziani, the Eagles have been
grounded on their home field. They
are 1-9 ATS of late. With 3
losses already to NW, UCF and Duke, it may appear a lost season for a BC team
who has posted a winning record every year of this millennium. But that start
was without RB Harris who returned for limited duty in a 45-17 victory vs. U.
Mass LW. With Harris returning to
full strength this week, The Eagles will have the better running game and
clearly the better defense. Plus
they have the advantage of history and value on their side. They stand 4-0 SU, ATS vs. Wake
including 23-13 LY. Though they do
not officially qualify for our contrarian play, the -36 net AFP plus public
money on Wake have resulted in 10 points of line value since opening week. This is a nice hidden winner for you.
State (-16) at Indiana 12:00 PM EST ESPNU: This was not the beginning that first
year HC Wilson had hoped for when he gave
up his job as OC at Oklahoma to become a Head Coach in the Big 10. Now, he knows why this Indiana program
has had just 1 winning season this millennium. His 1-3 Su record is characterized by a Game #1 loss to Ball
State and the Game #4 loss last week at lowly North Texas where his Hoosiers
failed to score in the 1st half. That hardly bodes well when facing the upper echelon of the
Big 10. But Penn State, with their
rotating QB system, has failed to show any offensive polish in going 0-4 ATS
for the season with an offense that is averaging only 349 YPG and 5.1 YPPL
including home outings against Indiana State and E. Michigan. They will no doubt win this game with
their “Defensive Dandy” numbers.
But despite Penn State’s failure to cover a game this season, this line
has been inflated by nearly a touchdown for the ineptitude shown by Indiana
last week. In short, this line has
been overinflated for the perception of Penn State as opposed to the reality
that this team is on a 5-13 ATS slide including 1-4 ATS away..
Free Picks - Air Force at Navy Betting
What CFB bettors need to know about Air Force at Navy (Saturday, October 1, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including predictions from Bryan Leonard and analysis from host Vegas Runner.