College football week 9 and the North Carolina Tar Heels will travel to Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. The game has a start time of 12:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on the ACC Network. Current Vegas odds have the Cavaliers listed as 6.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 65.  

Analysis:  The North Carolina Tar Heels have had a wild year so far mainly because they are all offense and no defense, which has made for some fun games. The Heels come in at 3-4 on the year including 0-3 on the road and they are 1-2 in the ACC, after being picked by by many to face the Noles in the ACC Title game. The Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a spread win, but they are also just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs a team with a winning home record. The Heels are a solid offensive team as they come in ranked 40th in total yards, 23rd in passing, 78th in rushing and 17th in scoring (38.7 ppg). The defense for the Heels has been very poor as they come in ranked 122nd overall, 122nd vs the pass, 109th vs the run and 127th in points allowed (43.3 ppg).  

The Virginia Cavaliers come in at 4-3 on the year, which includes a 4-1 mark at home. The Cavaliers have been tough all year as their 3 losses have come by 8 points or less, including last week's 20-13 loss at Duke. The Cavaliers are 9-2 ATS the last 11 in this series and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home overall, but they are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs the Heels. Virginia is not a strong offensive squad as they come in ranked 71st in total yards, 64th in passing, 58th in rushing and 73rd in scoring (29 ppg). On the defensive side of the ball they have been very solid as they come in ranked 25th in total yards allowed, 65th vs the pass, 9th vs the run and 41st in points allowed, giving up just 22.1 ppg.

Pick: A few weeks ago I played an under involving North Carolina when they played Virginia Tech and that was an easy winner. A Big reason I played that was because of the defense of Virginia Tech, and I like the same scenario here with the defense of Virginia being able to slow the Heels offense down. Virginia can also look to slow the Heels offense down with their slow paced offense that will just eat clock and keep the Heels offense on the sidelines. The Heels do give up a ton of points, but this is not a big play Virginia offense and I will look for them to dink an dunk their way down the field. This one should be played under 55 points.  

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