College football week 13 and the Arkansas State Red Wolves will travel to Bobcat Stadium to take on the Texas State Bobcats. The game has a start time of 9:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN U. Current Vegas odds have the Red Wolves listed as 7 point favorites, while the total is set at 58.
Analysis: The Red Wolves had won 5 of 6 games, but last night they too a shocking home loss to Appalachian State, in a game that the Red Wolves were 15 point favorites. Overall the Red Wolves are 6-4, which includes a 4-2 mark in the Sun Belt. Arkansas State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, but also 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. Arkansas State has been a good offensive team, ranking 40th in total yards, 65th in passing, 29th in rushing and 37th in scoring (33.8 ppg). The defense for the Red Wolves has been very average, ranking 61st in yards allowed, 43rd vs the pass, 83rd vs the run and 55th in point allowed (25.3 ppg).
Texas State is one win away from bowl eligibility as they are 5-5 on the year overall and 3-3 within the Sun Belt Conference. The have lost their last 2 games in a row, but by a total of just 7 points and they are 7-3 ATS this year. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games and 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Texas State has been a decent offensive squad this year, ranking 47th in total yards, 71st in passing, 31st in rushing and 58th in scoring (30.8 ppg). The defense has not been all that good as they rank 92nd in yards allowed, 56th vs the pass, 108th vs the run and 71st in points allowed (27.4 ppg).
Pick: Im going to look at the Over in this one. Sun Belt teams don’t get the national spotlight too often, but when they do they like to put on a good show and I expect that tonight. Arkansas State has a very good offensive team as they have averaged 34 ppg overall and 40 ppg within the SBC, while in their last 5 games they have put up 42.6 ppg. The Texas State offense has not been great this year, but they have scored 31 ppg on their homefield and will be taking on an Arkansas State squad that has allowed 34 ppg on the road this year. These teams do run more than they throw, but still the offenses are more than capable of putting up 30 or more points vs a couple of defenses that have struggled of late.
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