College football week 7 and the Air Force Falcons will travel to Merlin Olsen Field in Logan, Utah to take on the Utah State Aggies. The game has a start time of 10:15 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN U. Current Vegas odds have the Aggies listed as 7 point favorites, while the total is set at 50.5.
Analysis: The Air Force Falcons come in off back-to-back big wins as they took out Boise State by 14 points and Navy by 9 points the last 2 weeks. The Falcons are now 4-1 on the year so far, while going 4-1 ATS and having 4 of their 5 games this year go under the total. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and they are 1-13 vs a conference opponent off a non-conf game. The Falcons are led by Kale Pearson, who has thrown for 629 yards and 6 TDs, while also rushing for 261 yards and 3 TDs. RB Jacobi Owens leads the team in rushing with 617 yards and 4 TDs. Overall the Air force offense is 53rd in total yards, 120th in passing, 11th in rushing and 58th in scoring (32.6 ppg). The defense has been solid for the Falcons, as they rank 72nd in yards allowed 111th vs the pass, 32nd vs the run and 40th in points allowed (21.2 ppg).
The Utah State Aggies come off a huge 15 point win as a 21 point dog at BYU last Friday night. The Aggies are now 3-2 on the year, including a 2-0 mark at home. The Aggies are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs a team with a winning record and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs conference opponents. Chuckie Keeton is gone for the year, but Darell Garretson had a very good game vs BYU, hitting 76% of his passes for 321 yards and 3 TDs in that huge win, so they may be fine at the QB spot. Garretson has hit 65.5% of his passes for 710 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. Overall Utah State comes in ranked 90th in total offense, 62nd in passing, 82nd in rushing and 83rd in scoring, while the defense has been very solid, ranking 37th in yards allowed, 90th vs the pass, 8th vs the run and 40th in points allowed (24.6 ppg).
Pick: I love the Falcons here. At the beginning of the year I had this team as a surprise contender in the MWC conference and they haven’t disappointed so far. They have already won a road game at Wyoming and have a 14 point home victory over Boise State, plus they beat a very good navy squad last week. Now they travel to Utah State, who is in a flat spot for them as they are coming off a huge 15 point road win at BYU, as 21 point dogs. Letdown here. Utah State QB Garretson had a big game vs BYU last week, but as we have seen in recent weeks that BYU defense is down. Air Force can Struggle vs the Pass, but they also have allowed just 21.2 ppg on the year and will find a way to contain the Utah State passing game here. The Aggies are 8 th in the nation vs the run, but they haven’t faced a ground attack like this one yet, plus Air Force has added more passing this year, which makes them even tougher and the Aggies are 90th vs the pass. I look for the Falcons to continue to surprise and pull the outright win here, as this is just a bad spot for Utah State.
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