at Wisconsin (-9) 8:00 PM EST ABC: This is why the Big 10 welcomes
Nebraska. Camp Randall on a
Saturday night on National TV with Game Day in attendance would normally be a
sea of Wisconsin Red. Watch the
Nebraska faithful show up en masse wearing black, to support their beloved
Huskers in their inaugural Big 10 road show. Each team qualifies as a “Steamroller” with Wisconsin having
the added attraction of being a member of our “200 Club” and “Defensive Dandy”. Credit NC State transfer QB Wilson for
the former as he has balanced the Badger offense by completing 75% of his
passes for an 11.7 OYPA. Dating to
last season, the Badgers enter on a 9-2 ATS run including 3.1 ATS this year in
beating the spread by a combined 57 points the last 3 weeks. Nebraska, conversely, has
underperformed by failing to cover their 1st 3 games of the season
to enter with a -20 AFP. The
combination of the 2 numbers gives Nebraska a -66 net AFP number and a full
touchdown more value than what they would have gotten opening week. Look for the Black shirt defense to
step up, Nebraska QB Martinez to showcase his legs and arm, and Nebraska to
take advantage of the extra value in taking this game to the final gun. Note: HC Pallini 5-0 ATS MRT when
installed as underdog.
Dame (-12-) at Purdue 8:00 PM EST ESPN: The amazing perception of Notre Dame
has them favored by a TD more than opening week despite the fact they are 1-3
ATS and are a -28 net AFP. Maybe
it is because this is our SOS (strength of schedule) game of the week. The Irish are 2-2 SU against USF,
Michigan, Michigan State and Pitt.
Not bad considering they are a -10 net turnovers and lead the Nation
with -15 lost turnovers. Purdue,
meanwhile, has gone 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS vs. Mid Tenn, Rice (a loss) and SE MO
State. But in so doing, they have
become a part of the “200 Club” and are a “Steamroller” with overland numbers
of 255/5.6. Along with the return
of QB Marve (Miami transfer), and the extra value in this game accorded to the
Boilers, we line up with this live home dog in what will be a highly emotional
event for the Purdue faithful.
at Fresno State (-3-) 9:15 PM EST ESPN2: We all know that Fresno HC Hill lives
for these BCS opponents. Yet, he
usually faces them in the preferred role of road dog. In fact, his Bulldogs are just 5-15-1 ATS at home of
late. In his only 2 meetings vs.
BCS teams this year, he lost by 15 to California and 13 to Nebraska. QB Carr has been a pleasant
surprise. He leads an offense that
averages 31 PPG. Tonight, however,
Fresno becomes the hunted rather than the hunter. It is a rare role as he faces a BCS opponent who needs this
win to perhaps save the job of HC Nutt.
Yes, the Rebs may be the bottom of the SEC barrel. It was just 2 weeks ago they lost at
Vandy 30-7. But remember this is a
member of the strongest conference in the country, the SEC, who, as a unit,
have gone 25-3 SU vs. non-con foes this season.
Free Picks: Alabama at Florida Betting:
What CFB bettors need to know about Alabama at Florida (Saturday, October 1, 2011) from Pregame.com - Including predictions from Bryan Leonard and analysis from host Vegas Runner.