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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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    06/23/2022 11:28 AM

College Football Betting for Nebraska, Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Alabama

Nebraska at Wisconsin (-9) 8:00 PM EST ABC: This is why the Big 10 welcomes Nebraska.  Camp Randall on a Saturday night on National TV with Game Day in attendance would normally be a sea of Wisconsin Red.  Watch the Nebraska faithful show up en masse wearing black, to support their beloved Huskers in their inaugural Big 10 road show.  Each team qualifies as a “Steamroller” with Wisconsin having the added attraction of being a member of our “200 Club” and “Defensive Dandy”.  Credit NC State transfer QB Wilson for the former as he has balanced the Badger offense by completing 75% of his passes for an 11.7 OYPA.  Dating to last season, the Badgers enter on a 9-2 ATS run including 3.1 ATS this year in beating the spread by a combined 57 points the last 3 weeks.  Nebraska, conversely, has underperformed by failing to cover their 1st 3 games of the season to enter with a -20 AFP.  The combination of the 2 numbers gives Nebraska a -66 net AFP number and a full touchdown more value than what they would have gotten opening week.  Look for the Black shirt defense to step up, Nebraska QB Martinez to showcase his legs and arm, and Nebraska to take advantage of the extra value in taking this game to the final gun.   Note: HC Pallini 5-0 ATS MRT when installed as underdog. 

Notre Dame (-12-) at Purdue 8:00 PM EST ESPN: The amazing perception of Notre Dame has them favored by a TD more than opening week despite the fact they are 1-3 ATS and are a -28 net AFP.  Maybe it is because this is our SOS (strength of schedule) game of the week.  The Irish are 2-2 SU against USF, Michigan, Michigan State and Pitt.  Not bad considering they are a -10 net turnovers and lead the Nation with -15 lost turnovers.  Purdue, meanwhile, has gone 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS vs. Mid Tenn, Rice (a loss) and SE MO State.  But in so doing, they have become a part of the “200 Club” and are a “Steamroller” with overland numbers of 255/5.6.  Along with the return of QB Marve (Miami transfer), and the extra value in this game accorded to the Boilers, we line up with this live home dog in what will be a highly emotional event for the Purdue faithful. 

Mississippi at Fresno State (-3-) 9:15 PM EST ESPN2: We all know that Fresno HC Hill lives for these BCS opponents.  Yet, he usually faces them in the preferred role of road dog.  In fact, his Bulldogs are just 5-15-1 ATS at home of late.  In his only 2 meetings vs. BCS teams this year, he lost by 15 to California and 13 to Nebraska.  QB Carr has been a pleasant surprise.  He leads an offense that averages 31 PPG.  Tonight, however, Fresno becomes the hunted rather than the hunter.  It is a rare role as he faces a BCS opponent who needs this win to perhaps save the job of HC Nutt.  Yes, the Rebs may be the bottom of the SEC barrel.  It was just 2 weeks ago they lost at Vandy 30-7.  But remember this is a member of the strongest conference in the country, the SEC, who, as a unit, have gone 25-3 SU vs. non-con foes this season.  

Movie  Free Picks: Alabama at Florida Betting:
What CFB bettors need to know about Alabama at Florida (Saturday, October 1, 2011) from - Including predictions from Bryan Leonard and analysis from host Vegas Runner.