Saturday afternoon in CBB will see the 5th ranked Missouri Tigers travel to Waco, Texas to take on the 3rd ranked Baylor Bears. The game is scheduled for a 2:00 pm tipoff and will be televised live on Espn. Currently Baylor is favored by 4.5 points with the total being set at 148.5 for this game. Both teams sport identical 17-1 overall records and 4-1 marks in Big 12 play, and both will want a victory to keep pace with 5-0 Kansas atop the conference standings.
Free Analysis: Missouri responded to its only loss of the season, 75-59 at then-No. 23 Kansas State on Jan. 7, with three consecutive wins. The Tigers beat visiting Texas A&M 70-51 on Monday but nearly let the Aggies back in with a slow start to the second half. Missouri is 62-3 at home over the past four seasons but has lost in eight of its last 11 away games. The Tigers have also dropped eight straight on the road to Top 25 opponents and 21 in a row to top-10 teams since an 81-74 win over No. 4 Kansas on Feb. 20, 1994. Missouri faced a 24th-ranked Baylor team during its previous trip to Waco on Feb. 13, 2010, and fell 64-62 on a basket with 1.6 seconds left. The then-No. 20 Tigers got a team-best 20 points and nine rebounds from Laurence Bowers during last season’s 77-59 home win over the Bears, but they won’t have the 6-foot-8 senior forward for this game. Bowers has missed this season because of a knee injury, but Missouri has outrebounded 11 of its opponents despite the 6-8 Ratliffe being the only regular starter listed at taller than 6-6. The Tigers, though, could have a problem with a Baylor frontcourt that lists three starters at 6-7 or taller with the 6-11 Jones, averaging a team-best 14.2 points and 7.5 rebounds, as the tallest. Senior Ricardo Ratliffe has shot 70 percent or better in nine straight games and leads the nation at 77.1 percent shooting, but he’ll have his work cut out for him dealing with all of Baylor’s length inside. The Tigers are led by guards Marcus Denmon (17.8 points per game) and Phil Pressey (5.9 assists per game), while Michael Dixon (12.6 points per game) has been a big contributor, as he has led the team in scoring four times this season despite having zero starts. The Tigers have been solid at both ends of the floor this year as they have averaged 83.1 ppg (4th) on 50.7 % shooting (2nd), while allowing teams 62.3 ppg (65th) on 41.3% shooting. Baylor (17-1, 4-1 Big 12) couldn’t deal with vaunted Allen Fieldhouse during a 92-74 loss Monday to No. 7 Kansas that ended the best start and longest overall win streak in program history. The Bears’ obvious strength is in the interior, where they lead the conference in blocked shots (6.33 per game) and are second in field-goal percentage (.489). Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller — two big NBA draft prospects — average a combined 26.2 points and 12.6 rebounds. Baylor has a deep team with five double-figure scorers overall. Perry Jones III leads the team in both points (14.2 PPG) and rebounds (7.5 RPG) and shoots a high percentage (55% FG) with most of his attempts close to the basket. Jones is averaging 18.0 PPG on 59% FG in his past three games. Quincy Acy (12.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) is second on the team in both points and boards, and he has loved facing Missouri in his career. He had a double-double (12 pts, 11 reb) in the home win two seasons ago, and was Baylor’s best player in last year’s loss, scoring 13 points and grabbing nine boards. Brady Haslip (10.1 ppg), Quincy Miller (12.0ppg and Pierre Jackson (12.2 ppg), round out the DD scoring for the Bears. The Bears have averaged 77.7 ppg overall (27th), while allowing just 61.4 ppg (47th). From 2002 to 2008, Baylor had an eight-game ATS win streak in this series. But Missouri has won the past four meetings ATS, including three of those wins straight up. The home team has prevailed five straight times (4-1 ATS). That one non-cover was in February 2010 when Baylor beat Missouri 64-62 in Waco on a tip-in with less than two seconds to play.
Free Pick: Baylor is the pick here. They were just embarrassed on National TV at Kansas in their last game and will look to get back on track with a solid win here. They also have some added incentive after getting blown out by Missouri last February. Despite their loss to the the Jayhawks, the Bears are still outscoring opponents by 16.2 PPG this season, and that margin rises to 24.7 PPG at home. They have shot 49% FG or better 10 times already, while holding 12 opponents below 40% FG. The Tigers’ potent offense has been limited on the road (70.0 PPG) compared to at home this season (86.2 ppg) and that is not good for them as Baylor has permitted teams just 56.8 ppg on a mere 34.1% shooting on their home floor this year. They Tiger's also rebound poorly (34.4 rpg, 203rd in nation), while Baylor’s massive frontcourt is a big reason the team pulls down 38.0 rpg. That size advantage for the Bears (3 starters at 6' 6" or taller) should really come into play vs a Missouri team that uses a guard heavy set and has just one regular starter listed at taller than 6-6 (Ricardo Ratliffe 6'8"). Missouri is a different team away from home and the home team has won the last 5 SU (4-1 ATS), an I look for the trend continue here. Missouri's guards are quick, but Baylor just has too much size on the inside for them to handle here. Baylor will pull away late.
Betting Strategies - College Basketball Home Court Value
Host Vegas Runner and Pregame Pro Bryan Leonard discuss that not all home courts created equal and every conference has different values.