Today the Temple Owls will take on the SMU Mustangs in the semifinals of the American Athletic Conference Tournament which will take place at the XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut. The game has a start time of 3:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN 2. Current Vegas betting odds have the Mustangs listed as 4 point favorites, while the total is set at 126.5.
Analysis: The Temple Owls have quietly had a solid year and came into this tournament as the 3rd seed with a 13-5 AAC record and a 22-9 overall record. Now they are 23-9 for the year after dispatching of the Memphis Tigers 80-75 in the quarterfinals yesterday. Temple has gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Owls have not been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 234th in scoring (65.1 ppg), 340th in shooting (38.7%), 309th in 3 point shooting (30.8%) and 220th in FT shooting (68.1%). Defensively the Owls have been very good this year, ranking 36th in points allowed (60.3 ppg), 29th in defensive FG% (39.3%) and 26th in 3 point defense (30.6%).
The SMU Mustangs went into the last game of the regular season tied with Tulsa atop the AAC standings, but a 67-62 win over the Golden Hurricane gave them the regular season title and the top seed in the ACC Tournament. SMU is now 25-6 overall and has gone 16-3 vs AAC competition this year after they beat East Carolina 74-68 in the quarterfinals. SMU has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, but just 5-21 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. The Mustangs have been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 112th in scoring (69.7 ppg), 17th in shooting (48.3%), 86th in 3 point shooting (36.2%) and 123rd in FT shooting (70.5%). The defense for this team has been very good this year, ranking 27th in points allowed (60.1 ppg), 13th in defensive FG% (38.4%) and 110th in 3 point defense (32.9%).
Pick: Both teams played high scoring games yesterday and both can't be pleased with the defense that was played, so I will look Under in this game. These are two of the best defensive teams in the AAC and giving up 75 and 68 points just won't do for these teams, especially Temple, who has allowed just 60.3 ppg on the year, yet allowed 75 points to Memphis yesterday. In their previous 7 games the Owls had allowed just 58.1 ppg. For SMU, they allowed 68 points to a poor ECU team. For the year the Mustangs have held many teams to under 60 points and have allowed just 60 ppg on the year overall. The Owls have allowed just 62.2 ppg away from home, while the Mustangs have allowed just 61.4 ppg in their games away from home. The Owls are the worst shooting team in the AAC and while the Mustangs can shoot we note that the Owls allow teams just 39.3% shooting for the year. The Owls and Mustangs put up just 125 and 115 points in their 2 meetings this year and I see this one being played closer to the 115 than the 125.
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Handicapping Tips: Betting Conference Tournaments
Steve Fezzik and Teddy Covers give some tips and insight on how the pros bet the NCAA Conference tournaments.