CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks: Expert Breakdown from TPC Craig Ranch
Broadcasting live from a drenched TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, golf analyst Will Doctor delivers a data-driven preview of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson on the Golf Preview Podcast. With continuous rain turning the already score-friendly course into a soaked scoring fest, Doctor emphasizes the importance of distance off the tee, long iron precision, and the ability to reach 30-under by week's end. The course has undergone changes—wide fairways now sport ryegrass, and the rough could be trimmed before Thursday to manage regrowth from the storm.
World number one Scottie Scheffler opens as the favorite at +305. Despite not winning yet this season, he’s consistently contended—T2 in Houston, T4 at the Masters, and T8 at the Heritage. Scheffler’s elite ball control, especially around the greens, makes him dangerous, but Doctor avoids betting him pre-tournament due to better Sunday odds in recent weeks. Jordan Spieth, a 13-time Nelson participant, is at 20/1 with three straight top-20s, but his erratic iron play keeps Doctor off him. Sungjae Im, listed at 25/1, missed the cut at the Korean PGA and has never played Craig Ranch. His recent ball-striking doesn’t justify the number.
Byung Hun An sits at 28/1, but poor putting and inconsistent driving rule him out. Sam Burns is a master putter and former runner-up here but has lost strokes on approach in seven straight events, making his 30/1 odds unattractive. Siwoo Kim, working with coach Sean Foley, shows promise after a T2 and T13 here the past two years, but ranks 80th in approach and 123rd in putting—metrics that don’t support his 33/1 number. Taylor Pendrith, the defending champion at 35/1, hasn’t placed better than 38th in six of his last seven starts and showed weak iron form in practice. Zurich Classic winner Ben Griffin is 40/1, but his middling stats (54th in approach, 102nd in putting) suggest he lacks solo event upside.
Doctor’s featured matchup is Sammy Vallamaki (-105) over Nico Echevarria. Vallamaki’s ball-striking and five straight events gaining on the greens give him the edge. Echevarria, though a strong putter, has dropped strokes on approach in back-to-back events and remains an unreliable driver.
Top placement picks include Isaiah Salinda to top 20 at +280. He’s among the best drivers on tour and had strong Zurich and Houston performances. Despite switching caddies, Salinda’s form is compelling. Thomas Rosenmueller is Doctor’s headline value—picked to top 40 at +220 and win outright at 270/1. The big-hitting German has been flawless tee-to-green his last two starts and won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. Cam Davis is another outright at 100/1. A two-time PGA Tour winner, Davis combines elite distance and a strong bentgrass putting history with recent top-15 form.
Alejandro Tosti is the sleeper to top 20 at +280. Despite missing the cut at Zurich due to his partner’s struggles, Tosti’s long game and sharp iron play make him a threat, though his putter remains shaky under pressure.
For Thursday, Jaeger is picked to top 10 after round one at +400 due to elite recent iron play and past fast starts. Vallamaki, fourth in round-one scoring average (68.1), is also selected to top 10 at +550.
Doctor’s DraftKings lineup includes Scheffler, Salinda, Vallamaki, Tosti, Davis, and Rosenmueller. His PGA Tour fantasy roster names Scheffler captain, with Salinda, Davis, and Rosenmueller starting; Tosti and Vallamaki fill the bench.
With continued rain in the forecast, Doctor predicts a winning score of 28-under and selects Scheffler to be top American finisher at +200—his best bet of the week. He wraps the episode with plans to cover the Truist Championship next from Philadelphia Cricket Club.