The much-anticipated Week 4 college football matchup between the USC Trojans and the Michigan Wolverines is filled with excitement, storylines, and betting intrigue. As USC prepares to head to Ann Arbor as a six-point favorite, fans and analysts are debating what could happen in this high-stakes game. Both teams are at pivotal points in their seasons: USC is looking to continue their success on the offensive side of the ball, while Michigan is desperately trying to right the ship after a string of disappointing performances. This article delves into the players, team dynamics, key moments from the experts, and betting insights to give you a complete understanding of the game.

Michigan’s Quarterback Shake-Up: Alex Orji’s Time to Shine?

The biggest storyline going into this game revolves around Michigan’s decision to switch quarterbacks. [Big East Ben (0:22 - 2:03)] was quick to emphasize this shift, as Michigan benched Davis Warren, their former walk-on quarterback, in favor of five-star dual-threat prospect Alex Orji. Orji’s inclusion adds a sense of uncertainty and excitement to the game, as Michigan fans hope his mobility and playmaking abilities will provide a much-needed spark to an otherwise stagnant offense.

But there are clear concerns about Orji’s readiness. He has thrown just six passes this season, and one of those resulted in an interception. While his potential is clear, his lack of experience may make him a liability against a USC team that thrives on capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes. Ben notes that Michigan’s decision to start Orji is a gamble, a necessary one given their current position. "Michigan’s season is on life support," Ben remarks, underscoring the dire state of the Wolverines’ campaign thus far.

Michigan’s Offensive Struggles

Orji’s arrival comes after a series of underwhelming performances by Michigan’s offense. [Griffin Warner (0:00 - 0:21)] points out that Michigan’s offensive woes started in Week 1 when they struggled against Fresno. The game against Texas, where they were “creamed,” revealed just how vulnerable Michigan is against top-tier competition. The following week’s narrow victory over Arkansas State, a team they should have dominated, further exposed Michigan’s offensive problems.

One of the central issues with Michigan’s offense has been their inability to establish a rhythm. Whether it’s been poor quarterback play, inconsistent blocking, or a lack of explosive plays from their running game, the Wolverines have yet to find their identity on offense. Ben mentions that Michigan’s defense has carried the team to whatever small successes they’ve had this season. With Orji now under center, the Wolverines will hope that his dual-threat capabilities can make their offense more dynamic, but it remains to be seen if he can handle the pressure.

The Pressure on Michigan’s Defense

Michigan’s defense, on the other hand, has been the silver lining in an otherwise disappointing season. [Big East Ben (0:22 - 2:03)] believes that Michigan’s defense is the team’s biggest hope going into this game. "They know they have to carry this team," he says, adding that the defense will “sell out” in an effort to stop USC’s offense.

Michigan’s defense has been strong in certain aspects, especially in their ability to limit big plays. They will need to be at their best against USC’s explosive offense, which has consistently put up points this season. However, the defense faces a tall order in containing USC’s quarterback, Miller Moss, and his arsenal of weapons. The key for Michigan will be to pressure Moss early and often, forcing him to make quick decisions and limiting his ability to connect on deep passes.

Ben stresses that Michigan’s defense will need to execute a near-flawless game plan to give the Wolverines a chance. USC’s offense, while potent, can be disrupted if Michigan can generate enough pressure and force turnovers. Whether Michigan can do that consistently for four quarters is another question entirely.

USC’s Offensive Momentum

In stark contrast to Michigan’s offensive struggles, USC enters this game with one of the most dangerous offenses in college football. [Griffin Warner (0:00 - 0:21)] highlights USC’s offensive prowess, pointing out that the Trojans are averaging over 30 points per game. Led by quarterback Miller Moss, USC has shown they can score against even the toughest defenses. Warner underscores USC’s ability to put up points, noting that they scored 27 against LSU, a game many viewed as a test for USC’s offense.

However, [Big East Ben (1:45)] tempers expectations for USC’s offense, reminding us that LSU’s defense may not be as formidable as in previous years. "I think LSU is the same old LSU team judging by that defensive performance against South Carolina," Ben says, suggesting that USC’s 27 points might not be as impressive as it first appeared. Still, USC’s offense has consistently been able to move the ball and put points on the board, something Michigan has struggled to do all season.

Miller Moss has been a standout for USC this season, showing poise in the pocket and the ability to make big plays down the field. With a balanced attack that includes a potent running game, USC can attack defenses in multiple ways. For Michigan to have a chance, they will need to disrupt Moss’s timing and force USC into predictable situations.

Betting the Under: A Focus on Defense

With a total set at 46.5 points, both experts agree that the under is the most sensible play for this game. [Big East Ben (0:22 - 2:03)] outlines his reasoning, pointing to Michigan’s offensive struggles and their reliance on the defense to keep games close. Ben has significant concerns about Michigan’s ability to generate enough points, particularly with a new, inexperienced quarterback in Alex Orji. With so many questions surrounding Michigan’s offense, the likelihood of a low-scoring game seems high.

[Griffin Warner (2:03 - 2:12)] also backs the under, citing the matchup between Michigan’s defense and USC’s offense as a key factor. Warner believes Michigan’s defense will focus on limiting USC’s big plays, which could lead to longer, more methodical drives. If Michigan can slow down the pace of the game and keep the score close, the under is likely to hit.

Warner adds a bit of humor to his analysis, joking about Orji’s name and the Trojan mascot: "Always concerned about Orji’s with a bunch of Trojans coming into town." While the banter keeps the mood light, both Warner and Ben agree that the under 46.5 is the best bet for this matchup.

The Key Matchup: Michigan Defense vs. USC Offense

The game’s outcome will likely hinge on the battle between Michigan’s defense and USC’s offense. Michigan’s defense has been their strongest unit this season, and they will need to play their best game yet to stop USC’s high-powered offense. If Michigan can get consistent pressure on Miller Moss and force him into bad decisions, they could keep the game within reach.

However, Michigan’s defense can only do so much. Eventually, their offense will need to produce points if they want to win. This is where the uncertainty around Alex Orji comes into play. Will Orji be able to manage the game effectively and avoid costly turnovers? Will his dual-threat ability allow Michigan to generate enough big plays to stay competitive? These are the questions that will ultimately determine Michigan’s fate.

USC’s Road to Victory: Consistency on Offense

For USC, the path to victory is relatively clear. If they can maintain their offensive consistency and avoid mistakes, they should be able to take control of the game. Miller Moss has shown that he can lead the Trojans offense to success, but he’ll need to be aware of Michigan’s defensive schemes, which are likely to focus on pressuring him and forcing turnovers.

The key for USC will be to establish the run early, forcing Michigan’s defense to respect both the run and the pass. If Moss can get into a rhythm early and spread the ball around to his playmakers, USC should be able to move the ball effectively. Additionally, USC’s defense will need to capitalize on any mistakes made by Michigan’s offense, particularly with Orji making his first start of the season.

USC’s defensive strategy should focus on containing Orji’s scrambling ability and forcing him to beat them through the air. Given Orji’s limited experience, this could result in turnovers or stalled drives, allowing USC to build a lead and control the tempo of the game.

The X-Factor: Alex Orji’s Performance

One of the biggest unknowns in this matchup is how Alex Orji will perform as Michigan’s starting quarterback. Orji’s dual-threat ability gives Michigan a new dimension on offense, but his inexperience could also be a major liability. If Orji can manage the game, avoid turnovers, and make a few big plays with his legs, he could give Michigan’s offense the spark it desperately needs.

However, if Orji struggles under pressure or makes costly mistakes, Michigan’s offense could be in for a long day. [Big East Ben (0:22 - 2:03)] acknowledges that Orji’s lack of game experience makes him a wild card in this matchup. While his athleticism is undeniable, the mental side of the game will be crucial in determining how well he performs against USC’s defense.

Conclusion

The Week 4 matchup between USC and Michigan has all the makings of a fascinating game. Michigan’s quarterback change to Alex Orji brings uncertainty and intrigue, while USC’s offensive firepower, led by Miller Moss, presents a significant challenge for the Wolverines’ defense. Michigan’s defense will need to play at a high level to keep the game close, but even then, their offense will need to find ways to score points.

From a betting perspective, both experts favor the under 46.5 points, given Michigan’s offensive struggles and the expected defensive intensity. USC enters the game as a six-point favorite, and their ability to maintain consistency on offense will be crucial. Michigan, on the other hand, faces an uphill battle as they try to find their identity on offense with a new quarterback at the helm.

In the end, the outcome of this game will hinge on whether Michigan’s defense can contain USC’s offense and whether Alex Orji can rise to the occasion. Regardless of the result, this game promises to be a pivotal moment in both teams’ seasons.