College Football is right around the corner and I will look to continue my College Previews with a look at West Division of the Southeastern Conference. Here are the current Odds (Courtesy of BetUS) for teams to win the West Division this year. LSU (+150); Alabama (+150); Arkansas (+350); Mississippi State (+800); Auburn (+1000); Texas A&M (+2500); Mississippi (+3000). Below is how I see this division stacking up this year.
LSU: The Tigers have some unfinished business this year, after going 13-0 in the regular season last year, but losing to Alabama in the Title game. A big problem for the Tigers was the play at the QB spot, but that should be shored up this year with strong armed Zach Mettenberger (32 TD’s, 4 INT’s at Junior College) taking over. The WR corps has talent and speed but just couldn’t show it last year with the Lee/ Jefferson combo at the helm. All top four running backs return, led by Michael Ford (756 rush yds, 7 TD) and Spencer Ware (707 rush yds, 8 TD) and the OL is one of the best in the league. This offense should be better than last year’s edition. The Tigers did lose some key players on defense, including first-round NFL draft picks Michael Brockers and Morris Claiborne, plus Tyrann Mathieu (suspension), but this unit is still loaded with talent. The DL and DB are among the nation’s best, while the LB corps is middle of the pack in the SEC. The Defense will be top 5 in the country this year, but what will make the Tigers a better overall team is an offense that will be able to drive the ball down and score, rather than expecting their defense to give them a short field all the time. LSU also gets a great scheduling break as they have an off week before their home date with Bama, while the Tide will be on their 3 road game in 4 weeks. LSU will be a player again in the hunt for the National title.
Alabama: The Tide are National Champs and are once again in the chase for another National title, but I feel they will take a very slight step back. Bama had sort of the same problem as LSU last year and that was great defense and below average QB play, but one thing that Bama did have last year that helped was Trent Richardson, and this year he is gone. Now while LSU has upgraded at the QB slot, Bama has stayed the same with AJ McCarron (2,615 yards and 16 TD last year). AJ does have a year under his belt and the top OL in the SEC to work behind, but he doesn’t have the same running game to take the pressure off and he will have to make plays and will have to do so without his top 3 targets from last year. I really see this offense taking a step back this year. The Defense allowed just 8.2 ppg last year, but just 5 starters return to that unit so I do not see them allowing under 10 ppg like last year. I see a step back from this unit as well. Bama was pretty solid on special teams last year, but this year they rate as one of the worst in the SEC and that may cost them a game or two. Bama recruits well and will plug their holes, but this team is not as good as last year and with a road game at LSU I will call for a second place finish in the SEC West for them this year.
Arkansas: Here is a team that may have had had a chance at taking the West away from LSU or Bama, but losing Petrino (scandal) in favor of John L. Smith has me picking them here. The Hogs have averaged 36+ppg the last 3 rand will really miss Petrino’s play calling ability. They still have a potent offense led by QB Tyler Wilson, who threw for 3,638 yards and 24 TD last season The team also has a very good running game that sees a number of RBs get touches, though All-America candidate Knile Davis will lead the way if he’s fully recovered from a knee injury that kept him out in 2011. Wilson’s top target from last year is gone (Jarius Wright), but the WR corps is still loaded with talent. The team also has a very good running game that sees a number of RBs get touches, though All-America candidate Knile Davis will lead the way if he’s fully recovered from a knee injury that kept him out in 2011. The OL will be an issue, but this will still be a good offensive team. A potent offense was able to hide a mediocre defense that allowed 28+ points 6 times last year. Smith is a defensive minded coach and couple that with a few key returning starters and this should be an improved unit. Arkansas gets LSU and Bama at home and a win in one of those games may give them a shot at playing for the SEC title game.
Auburn: After a year of rebuilding, the Tigers return 16 starters and 48 lettermen making them a very solid team this year. A lot of their success, however, will depend on the performance of the winner of the QB battle between Clint Moseley and Kiehl Frazier and their ability to adapt to the Pro Style offense that the Tigers will use this year. The Tigers do get back their top 4 pass catchers back from a year ago, which should help the passing game that had their fewest yards since 1985. Star RB Michael Dyer followed offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn to Arkansas State, leaving undersized Onterio McCalebb as Auburn’s only proven runner and he will be running behind a shaky OL. Overall I look for an improved offense. On defense the Tigers have a shot at being a real special group as they have 26 of 31 lettermen back from last year, including 9 starters. This defense had just 3 starters back last year and struggled, allowing 28.9 ppg, but those guys are all a year older and I expect BIG improvements from that side of the ball. Their schedule is tough, but a lot of their tough games are at home (Georgia, LSU and Arkansas). The do have a road date vs Bama, but could be favored in road games vs Miss State, Ole Miss and Vandy. Look for a very good year for the Tigers this year.
Mississippi State: Although the Bulldogs have made improvements over the past couple of years, they have failed to break through in the SEC. This season Tyler Russell will take over as QB after a year of splitting time. He should be able to handle the job as long as his offensive line holds up. MSU returns their top 4 pass catchers from last year, but they lose 100 yrd rusher in Vick Ballard. Overall just 5 starters return to this offense and topping last year’s 25.3 ppg may be a bit tough. On defense, Mississippi State won’t be as good as last season when it allowed 19.7 PPG (16th in nation). The Bulldogs have lost their anchor, DT Fletcher Cox, and their secondary is very inconsistent, finishing 11th in the SEC in passing defense (197 YPG). Overall the Bulldogs should be bowl eligible, but with all they lost on both sides of the ball it will be hard for them to move up in the standings.
Texas A&M: Both the Aggies and Tigers were able to put up big points in the Big 12, but both teams wil learn that the SEC does not have too many soft defenses like the Big 12 has. Former Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin’s toughest job is going to be finding a quarterback to run his high-octane offense. Jameill Showers, who attempted just five passes as a freshman, or redshirt freshmen Johnny Manziel will likely be behind center when the season opens, while Senior WR Ryan Swope remains the top target in the passing game (89 rec, 1,207 yds, 11 TD). The Running game loses a 1000 yrd rusher in Cyrus Gray, but SR Christine Michael is ready to take over and he will run behind the 2nd rated OL in the league. DE Damontre Moore (8.5 sacks) is going to be a crucial part of the defense. A&M is going to have a lot of trouble covering wideouts after losing three important DBs in a secondary that allowed 276 passing YPG last year (109th in FBS). There will be a freshmen QB running this offense and that is not good news when going up against the SEC defenses they will face. The Aggies may just be on the outside looking in during the bowl season.
Mississippi: Ole Miss had a lot of trouble on both sides of the ball last year, and that could be the case again in 2012. The Rebels averaged 16.1 ppg on offense, while allowing 32.1 ppg on defense on their way to an 0-8 record in the SEC and being outgained by 174 ypg in conference play. This year the Rebels have all f their skill people back on offense, but a weak OL and no clear cut choice for QB will hinder them this year. The defense returns 8 starters, but they have a lot of work to do after finishing last in te SEC in tackles for loss and sacks, while allowing 36.5 ppg and 438 ypg in SEC play, which were both last in the league as well. The secondary is strong, but with a weak front 7 they could struggle to stop the run again after allowing 224 ypg on the ground last year. Still too many holes in this team to think they can’t come close to a winning record this year.
All in all I expect a rematch of last years SEC title game, but in a surprise I expect the Bulldogs to walk away with the Title this year in a tight game vs LSU. Here are the current overall Odds to win the SEC Title this year (Courtesy of BetUS). LSU (+190)... Alabama (+190)... Georgia (500)...Arkansas (+600)... South Carolina (+900)... Florida (+1000)... Auburn (+1600)... Mississippi State (+2500)... Tennessee (+3000)... Missouri (+4000).... Texas A&M (+5000)...Vanderbilt (+5000)... Mississippi (+10000)... Kentucky (+10000).
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