College Football Week 1 continues tonight and we will see the Western Michigan Broncos travel to East Lansing, Michigan to take on the Michigan State Spartans. The start time is 8:00 pm (Eastern) and the game will be televised on the Big 10 Network. Current Odds have Michigan State listed as 28 point favorites, while the total sits at 45.
Analysis: An injury to QB Alex Carder derailed the Broncos last year and they stumbled to a 4-8 season. Bill Cubit was fired in the off-season and in steps P.J Fleck, but with no Carder this year and just 12 starters overall back it may be hard improving on that record from last year. Senior Van Tubbergen now takes over as the starter and he has the Broncos top two wide receivers back from last year in Jamie Wilson (67 catches, 792 yards, six TDs) and Josh Schaffer (43 rec). He does have just 1 starters back on the OL, so protection may be an issues, especially vs this tough Spartans defense. The Western Michigan defense has a few key members to replace from last year's unit that finished fifth in the MAC in total defense (395.9 ypg) and seventh in scoring defense (29.7 ppg). The Broncos are hoping for improved play from their experienced secondary, after picking off just 8 passes a year ago.
Michigan State had a down year for them last year as they wen just 7-6 overall. They did beat TCU in the bowl game, so they have some momentum coming into this year year. They were hit very hard in the offseason, with NFL draftees and early departures, but with 15 starters back this year, they just may be a much better team than year. Michigan State's offense returns most of its key parts, but they did lose 1700 yard back Le'Veon Bell. The Spartans will rotate running backs in an effort to replace. Junior Jeremy Langford will start at tailback on tonight, but freshman Riley Bullough and junior Nick Hill also should receive plenty of chances. Andrew Maxwell is back at QB, but will need to improve upon his 52.5% completions. He does have top returning wideouts Keith Mumphery (42 receptions, 515 yards, TD) and Bennie Fowler (41 rec, 524 yds, 4 TDs) back from last year, so that should help his productivity. The Spartans’ defense has led the Big Ten each of the past two seasons, and this years unit could be even better, with 7 starters back, including senior linebacker Max Bullough. Michigan State leads the all-time series 10-2, including a 7-0 mark in games played in Spartan Stadium.
Pick: I am going with the under in this one. The Broncos lost QB Carder from last year and have a weak OL, so I look for them to struggle on offense in the early going this year. Making them struggle even more on offense will be a very stout Michigan State defense that is primed for a big year. The Spartans offense has struggled over the year and are mostly just a ground it out type of team that plays the field position game and then relies on their defense to win the games. I just don't see WMU getting many points vs this efense, while MSU will not score a whole lot because of their style of play. High 30's at best here.
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Football Tips from Vegas Professional Sports Bettor Chuck Edel
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