College Football is right around the corner and I will look to continue my College Previews with a look at West Division of Conference USA. Here are the current Odds (Courtesy of BetOnline) for teams to win the West Division of Conference USA this year. Houston (+175); SMU (+190); Tulsa (+200); UTEP (+750); Rice (+900); Tulane (+1000). Below is how I see the West Division shaping up this year.
Houston: Last year the Cougars had a dream season as they went 13-1 and were just a loss to Southern Miss in the Conference USA title game away from playing in a BCS bowl game. This year the Cougars do not have Case Keenum under center, but I do not think that will be much of a problem for them. Back in 2010, when Case was injured, David Piland filed in nicely throwing for 2641 yards with 24 TD’s in 8 games. Leading rusher Charles Sims (821 rush yds, 7.5 YPC, 9 TD; 575 rec yds, 4 TD) returns behind an experienced o-line, but all of the receiving weapons Keenum had last year are gone. 5 of their top 6 receivers from last year are gone so they have some work to do in that area. Don’t expect 49 ppg from this team this year, but their system does mean that they will still flirt with around 40 ppg. Defensively, Houston was a solid team last year, allowing just 22.4 PPG, and now they switch back to a 4-3 with new defensive coordinator Brian Stewart. 24 of 31 lettermen return overall to the defense, which includes 7 starters. This is a unit with some good depth and one of the most dynamic set of linebackers in the conference. They do have to face SMU on the road, but the Cougars get Tulsa at home and avoid both S. Miss and UCF from the East, so even without Case this year I still expect them to get back to the Conference USA Title game.
SMU: Gonna take a shot with the Mustangs In this spot. SMU does return just 3 starters to offense, but this is a June Jones offensive system so I expect them to be just fine. QB Garrett Gilbert (Texas Transfer) will run June Jones offense and he did throw for 2700 yards in 12 starts for Texas a few years back. The Mustangs do have their top 3 RB and top WR from last year back, so Gilbert does have some weapons at his disposal. TH OL must be rebuilt, but I still feel this offense does have a the capabilities of at least equaling the 25.8 ppg they averaged last year. The Mustangs will be returning six starters from a defensive unit that was second in C-USA last season (340 total YPG). They get back all of their linebackers, but must replace two talented defensive ends. The secondary will return a decent number of reliable starters, including CB Kenneth Acker (49 solo tackles, 4 PD) and S Ryan Smith (65 tackles, 4 PD). Despite just 3 starters back on offense June Jones may finally have the perfect pieces for his run & shoot offense, while the defense will be one of the best in the league. The have to travel to UCF, but get Tulsa, S. Miss and Houston at home and they may just have enough to unseat the Cougars in the West Division.
Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane must replace super QB GJ Kinne, but unlike Houston and SMU, they don’t have a signal caller to step in with much experience. Cody Green should win the job and did have 5 starts for Nebraska, but hit just 54% of his passes for 657 yards. He’ll have WR Bryan Burnham (850 yds) and WR Willie Carter (868 yds) to throw to, while RBs Trey Watts and Ja’Terian Douglas, both of whom rushed for over 800 yards last season, will also make Green’s job easier. However, the O-line lost three starters and lacks depth. Still this team could put up 30+ points like they did the last 2 years. They have a lot of speed on their defense, so it’ll be very tough to move the ball on the Golden Hurricane, especially in a conference full of uncertainty at the quarterback position. Tulsa returns 22 lettermen and 7 starters back from a team that struggled on defense last year as they allowed 27.3 ppg. This group does have talent and the aforementioned speed, so I expect big improvements from them. Tulsa could be 8-0 when they head to their last 4 games of the year, but those games include road dates at Arkansas Houston and SMU, plus a home game vs UCF. They will make it to a bowl, but will not overtake SMU or Houston in the West.
UTEP: In Mike Price’s first year here the Miners had an 8-4 record, but they have since endured 7 losing years in a row. Needless to say, Price is on the hotseat. The pressure will be on QB Nick Lamaison (1,718 pass yds, 12 TD, 10 INT) who was derailed by a few injuries. This year he’ll get back his two top targets in WRs Mike Edwards (657 rec yds, 3 TD) and Jordan Leslie (430 rec yds, 2 TD). RB Nathan Jeffery averaged 6.4 YPC last season and shows a lot of promise, especially with four starting OLs returning. While the Offense should be solid, it’s the defense that will struggle and could ultimately cost Price his job. The Miners defense struggled last year, allowing 442 YPG (104th in nation) and 49+ points three times. But the defensive line returns three quality starters and their linebackers are above average. The secondary could also be better with CB Drew Thomas (42 tackles, 5 PD) and S DeShawn Grayson (67 tackles, 2 INT) returning. The schedule is not favorable as they draw the top 6 teams in the league and must face Tulsa, Houston and Southern Miss on the road. Mike may be looking for a new job after this year.
Tulane: Tulane was actually pretty competitive last year as they were just -51.7 ypg in conference play, despite their 1-7 record. This year they should be much improved, with 7 starters back on both sides of the ball. New HC Curtis Johnson loves QB Ryan Griffin (2,502 pass yds, 13 TD, 10 INT), and expects much bigger things from him. The Green Wave will also get back their star RB, Orleans Darkwa (924 rush yds, 13 TD) and their top 4 pass catchers from a year ago. The OL is weak, but they should still top the 21 ppg they put up last year. Defensively they have allot of work to do, after allowing 37.5 ppg last year, but 7 starters do return and they are very solid in the back 7, so I expect a big improvement from this group. With home dates vs Rice and UAB, plus a winnable road game at Memphis, Tulane should be able to improve on last year 1-7 conference mark and get out of the basement in the West.
Rice: The Owls were just 4-8 last year and this year may not be all that much better as they have just 5 starters back on both sides of the ball. For them to get back to respectability, junior QB Taylor McHargue (1,072 pass yds, 8 TD, 5 INT) needs to play better. He does have weapons in WR Vance McDonald (532 rec yds, 5 TD) and TE Luke Wilson (313 yds, 3 TD), both of whom are legitimate targets. They lose top RB Tyler Smith, but they get back playmaking RB/WR Sam McGuffie after his season was cut short by an ankle injury. On defense, two stars return in CB Bryce Callahan (6 INT) and LB Cameron Nwosu (108 tackles). Outside of those two, Rice is full of young, inexperienced Players. Just 2 of their top 5 tacklers are back and it could make it hard for this unit to improve on the 33 ppg they allowed last year. The trenches are very important to a team’s success, but the Owls do not have a lot of talent on either side of the ball along the lines. I don’t expect Rice to improve on last year’s 4-8 mark.
Overall I expect Houston and Central Florida to meet up in the Conference USA Title game, with the Knights taking the title. Here are the current overall odds to take the Conference Title this year.(Courtesy of BetOnline). UCF (+250); Houston (+450); SMU (+475), Southern Miss (+475); Tulsa(+500); East Carolina (+800); Marshall (+1000); UTEP (+1500); Rice (+2500), UAB (+2500); Tulane(+3000); Memphis (+4000).
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