Troy Murphy, who was bought out by the Golden State Warriors recently, has reportedly signed with the Boston Celtics. Interesting move here as I thought he might end up in Miami to play with the so-called "Super Team."
Here's what I'm taking from this scenario: the Miami Heat are seriously overvalued.
Obviously a team like this is going to garner a lot of public attention with two of the three most popular players in the league. But what does it tell us from a betting value perspective?
I think the Oklahoma City Thunder REALLY got a good deal with moving Jeff Green to Boston for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson. Interesting to see where Mike Bibby ends up too, as he gave up $6 million next season to be bought out by the Washington Wizards. I think he could end up in Miami or with the Lakers.
Today we will look at three Eastern Conference teams that will be affected by these buyout terms with guys like Murphy and Mike Bibby.
Miami Heat
Opinion: Overvalued. Why? Because they're currently the odds-on favorites, including 2.25/1 (9/4) at bodog. At a very square book, SIA the Heat are currently +250 to win the NBA title outright and only +125 to win the Eastern Conference. I think a lot of people would have liked these odds at the beginning of the season with the knee-jerk reactions from all the books and the public. The books obviously knew what they were doing as they were able to give less than good odds for the Heat. That changed as the season went on and now, even though they are the favorites to win, you're getting plus money (which you should be getting anyway on a prop).
I think Mike Bibby could have an impact on this team. He's not at the same level he has been in his past but if he can play some defense and knock down some 3's he will help improve this team. Interesting stat here: the Miami Heat have a 2-6 record against the other Top 3 seeds in the Eastern Conference, including 0-3 against both Boston and Chicago. I think the Heat are overvalued.
Boston Celtics
Opinion: Just about right. +325 to win the NBA crown at SIA and just +165 to win the East. I like Boston. While guys like Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett aren't getting any younger, they're still a veteran team that gets the job done. Extremely good home team and adding a guy like Troy Murphy to the group is going to help them with some inside help. While Murphy isn't a guy that's going to be a banger for 48 minutes, he is going to give them VALUE minutes. Boston needs guys like Shaq to play really just one quarter and provide some defensive presence. Definitely like them to be in the mix for the East.
Chicago Bulls
Opinion: Undervalued. Are you kidding me? 5.5/1 odds to win the Eastern Conference. I like those odds. The Baby Bulls can flat out play. They're 3-0 this season against Miami and have tied the Heat in the loss column at 17 defeats this season. I'm not a Bulls fan by any means but when you sign Carlos Boozer to a huge deal and he's only your second leading scorer, you're in a good spot. Derrick Rose SHOULD win the MVP award (currently an EVEN odds bet at some online books). I don't think there's any question he's the MVP. He has led the Bulls team to a No. 3 seed in the East and they could get better as they move on this year. If we're getting +550 odds for Chicago to win the East, we like that as the Bulls are undervalued in the long run. However, it will be interesting to see what the oddsmakers do with this team from night to night.
Related reading: Troy Murphy Adds Rebounding, Scoring Range, Bench Depth to Celtics [FOX Sports]
Comment . . .
Who do you think are the most under and over valued teams in the East?