CBB Free Pick Wednesday w/ Dave Essler
Introduction
In this episode of CBB Free Pick Wednesday, Dave Essler dives into a Northeast Conference matchup between Long Island University (LIU) and Chicago State, sharing his betting analysis and strategy. While betting on lower-tier teams can be unpredictable, he identifies a strong edge in the under for total points based on past performances and team efficiencies.
Game Breakdown & Betting Strategy
Why Lower-Tier Games Can Be Unpredictable
- Essler acknowledges that marginal teams tend to produce unexpected results.
- Double-digit underdogs have a chance to win outright, although this is less likely in tournament play.
- Despite the volatility, statistical edges can still be found, making these games valuable for bettors.
LIU vs. Chicago State: Historical Matchups & Total Points
Essler projects the total to be set around 130 points, which he believes is too high based on:
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Previous matchups this season:
- One game ended with 140 points, but it went to overtime.
- The other game, played at the same venue in January, finished at 92 points, with Chicago State scoring only 39.
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LIU’s Playing Style:
- Expected to be 11-12 point favorites.
- More focused on defense rather than high-scoring plays.
- Preparing for a potential championship matchup against Central Connecticut, which may impact their approach.
Team Performance & Efficiency Ratings
Chicago State
- Least efficient offense in the Northeast Conference.
- Prefers to play at a faster pace, but playing on the road limits their control over tempo.
LIU
- Most efficient defense in the conference, which is why they have won so many games.
- Offense is not significantly better than Chicago State’s in terms of efficiency.
- Worst team in conference at ball protection, leading to frequent turnovers and fewer scoring opportunities.
Final Betting Pick & Conclusion
- The only argument for an over would be Chicago State’s fast-paced playstyle, but LIU’s control of tempo outweighs this factor.
- Given the defensive strengths and turnover rates, the game is likely to stay low-scoring.
- Final Pick: Bet the Under on total points in LIU vs. Chicago State.
Closing Thought:
Essler signs off with a simple message: Good luck, guys!
Key Takeaways for Bettors
Lower-tier college basketball games can be unpredictable, but there are betting edges.
Historical matchups indicate a lower-scoring game (140 in OT, 92 in regulation).
Projected total: 130 points, which is likely too high.
LIU expected to be 11-12 point favorites but won't push the score.
Chicago State has the worst offense in the conference, making high scoring unlikely.
LIU has the most efficient defense in the Northeast Conference.
High turnover rates from LIU reduce total scoring opportunities.
Chicago State prefers fast play, but LIU will control tempo.
Best bet: Under on total points for LIU vs. Chicago State.
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