College football bowl season begins today and we will see the South Alabama Jaguars take on the Bowling Green Falcons in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl at the Crampton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. The game has a start time of 9:15 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN. Current Vegas odds have the Jaguars listed as 3 point favorites, while the total is set at 54.
Analysis: The South Alabama Jaguars finished the year winning just 1 of their last 5 games, but their 6-6 mark overall and 5-3 mark in the Sun Belt Conference was enough to get them a bowl invite. The Jags are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, but just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. We also note that the Under is 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record and 20-8-1 in Jaguars last 29 games overall. South Alabama was not a good offensive team this year, ranking 90th in total yards, 100th in passing, 49th in rushing and 107th in scoring (22.1 ppg). Defensively they have been rather average, ranking 62nd in yards allowed, 32nd vs the pass, 90th vs the run and 58th in points allowed (25.8 ppg).
The Bowling Green Falcons also had a rough close to their year, as they lost their last 3 games, including a 51-17 loss to Northern Illinois in the MAC Title game. Overall the Falcons were 7-6, including 5-3 in the MAC. The Falcons are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss, but just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games. The Over is 6-0 in the Falcons last 6 games in December, but the Under is 16-5 in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. Bowling Green has been a decent offensive team this year, ranking 49th in total yards, 45th in passing, 54th in rushing and 63rd in scoring (29.8 ppg). The defense has been horrible this year, ranking 122nd in yards allowed, 126th vs the pass, 104th vs the run and 109th in points allowed (33.9 ppg).
Pick: Going to look at the Over in this one. The Jaguars were not a great offensive squad this year, but they are trying to change that for this bowl game as they have Fired their OC and are implementing a new fast paced offense for this game. That will do 2 things.First it will create more plays in the game and second it should mean that an already weak Bowling Green will be very much in the dark here as they will have no film on the new offense. That Bowling Green defense was horrible this year, allowing 499.6 ypg overall, 292.4 ypg passing and 33.9 ppg. Even worse is when they played away from home this year as they allowed 564.7 ypg, 320.1 ypg passing and 38.6 ppg. Even this new offense of the Jags should have no problems scoring on this defense. The Falcon offense already runs at a fast pace and they have averaged 29.8 ppg on the year, including 27.1 ppg away from home. The South Alabama defense was not all that bad this year, but they did wear down the stretch as they allowed 36 ppg in their last 4 games. With two fast paced offenses going up against a horrible defense and a tired one I just don't see how both teams don't score at least 27 points each in this game.
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College Football Free Picks: Bowling Green vs South Alabama
What college football bettors need to know about betting Bowling Green Falcons vs South Alabama Jaguars in the Camellia Bowl on Saturday (12/20/14) - a free pick from Pregame.com's Dave Cokin with added insight from Ken Thomson.