In a shocking turn of events, both the Eastern and Western Conference Finals teeter on the precipice of a sweep. The Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets are each just one victory away from sealing their respective Conference Finals. In this article, we take a look at how these scenarios in the NBA playoffs historically trend to play out, as well as how we arrived at this imminent Finals showdown between Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jokic.
Key 3-0 Betting Trends
Historically, NBA teams that hold a 3-0 advantage in a best-of-7 series have an impeccable record, winning the series 149 out of 149 times previously.
But chances are you are not itching to risk $2,500 to win a hundred bucks that the Nuggets will take care of business at some point in the next week and advance to their first-ever NBA Finals. How can we take advantage as bettors?
Since 2002, the team leading 3-0 has a 57% ATS record in Game 4 (45-34-3 ATS). Moreover, Game 4s have also tilted slightly towards the Over's in these scenarios with an O/U (Over/Under) record of 41-36-5. Both these trends seem to suggest a potential decrease in defensive play in these games, potentially indicating a lack of motivation from teams like the Celtics & the Lakers, finding themselves on the brink of elimination. (1-2-3 CANCUN!)
Of the 149 previous 3-0 scenarios, three teams have pushed the series to a Game 7, the New York Knicks in 1951, the Denver Nuggets in 1994, and the Portland Trail Blazers in 2003 all managed this feat, but ultimately fell short of pulling a full 2004 Boston Red Sox.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, there have been 5 sweeps in the last 53 years, the latest occurring in 2015 when the Cleveland Cavaliers, coached by David Blatt, topped the Atlanta Hawks in four games.
In contrast, the Western Conference Finals have witnessed 11 sweeps, the most recent one in 2019 when the Golden State Warriors dispatched the Portland Trail Blazers in four straight games.
How Butler & Adebayo Won The East
Yes, for the purposes of this article, we are acting under the pretense that these series are in fact over. (Until the 149-0 trend is snapped.) (Heat are actually -1200, Celtics +800 to advance).
So how did it happen? How did an 8th-seed win the East for the first time since the 1998/1999 NY Knicks?
Something must be learned from history here. Something is different in Miami.
When it comes to thumbing their nose at Vegas and NBA history, Jimmy Butler & Erik Spoelstra have been the common denominator.
In recorded NBA betting history, exactly 2 NBA teams have started a series by winning three consecutive games in which they were 4-point or greater underdogs in each. Those teams are 1.) the 2019-2020 Miami Heat (who used those underdog-victories to topple the MIL Bucks in the 2nd round of the Bubble Playoffs), and these 2022 Miami Heat, who are now -1200 to advance to the NBA Finals. (For masochistic Celtics fans looking to lose money, the odds on the Celtics to advance are now +750.)
Over the last four seasons, the Heat will have won series in which they entered as +700 underdogs (2023 vs. MIL), +400 underdogs (2023 vs. BOS), and +350 underdogs (2020 vs. MIL) respectively. The Heat were also +140 underdogs in the 2nd round this season vs. the NY Knicks, who they dispatched in five games.
While Jimmy Butler & the Heat may have expected to be back in this position, on the Celtics side this result comes as a shock.
When asked about the team's impressive performance away from home in the past two postseasons, Boston Celtics top-scorer, Jayson Tatum suggested, "We've had no other choice. It was either win, or the season was over."
Sadly, for the Celtics, they couldn't secure a win in Game 3, and as a result, found themselves in the uncomfortable position of an 0-3 series deficit, a situation that 149 teams before them have failed to overcome.
After the Miami Heat dominated the Celtics in Game 3, leading by as many as 22 points in the first half and 33 in the game to secure a 128-102 victory, Tatum and the Celtics are now faced with the herculean task of turning the series around to prevent the eighth-seeded Heat from advancing.
Post-game, a visibly disheartened Jaylen Brown said, "I don't even know where to start."
"We came out flat," Brown continued, "We needed this game, and we didn't play like it. We weren't aggressive, we weren't connected, and it showed. Now we've got to regroup and come out fighting for Game 4."
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra, however, seemed satisfied with his team's effort. "Our guys are competitive," he said. "We know that we have to improve from game to game. But we also understand that the other team is going to come with a desperate sense of urgency. That's what this is all about."
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been nothing short of exceptional for the Miami Heat. Butler's all-around offensive and defensive brilliance, combined with Adebayo's interior presence and versatility, have been instrumental in propelling the Heat to this commanding lead.
In the West, Jokic Champions Team Basketball
Like the Heat, the Denver Nuggets illustrated throughout the season, and now in the playoffs, that a well-constructed, connected team can rival the most glittering assemblages of talent.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the Nuggets' standout stars, have led the team with exceptional performances in the series against the Los Angeles Lakers. But the Nuggets' depth, commitment to sharing the ball, and their collective strength have proven pivotal in their victories.
“I love it just because then you can see everybody is moving,” Jokic, often hailed as the world's favorite point-center, told reporters after the Nuggets' 119-108 win over the Lakers in Game 3. “I think that’s hard to guard when we are passing the ball. … It’s so, I think it’s, I say, we’re like poison.”
In the third quarter of Game 3, Jokic was forced to sit with four fouls and the Lakers trailed just 68-64. This could have been a dangerous moment for Denver, but the supporting cast stepped up, showcasing the depth that Denver has displayed all season.
“I mean, I never doubted my team,” Jokic said. “I know they’re capable. You see it in the third quarter. … We have some really good players that can step up in the right moment, and that’s what we did.”
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who scored 17 points in just over 34 minutes, asserted his belief in the team's potential from the start, "We’re No. 1 in the West for a reason. I believed it from the jump that we could win a championship."
As the Nuggets stand on the brink of their first ever NBA Finals, they face a monumental task - attempting to complete a playoff series sweep against LeBron James prior to the NBA Finals. A feat never before accomplished.
“It's like you can't continue to give him life. The more life you give him, the more confidence he gains and the more confidence he instills in his teammates. So for me, it has to end [Monday]," said Nuggets veteran forward Jeff Green, while guard Bruce Brown emphasized, "We want to give them no hope," Brown said. "No confidence."
Despite leading the series 3-0, the Nuggets understand the gravity of the situation, especially with an all-time great like LeBron fighting to keep the Lakers' season alive. "I'm not going to say that I'm scared," Jokic confessed, "But I'm worried because they have LeBron on the other side and he is capable of doing everything."
In their attempt to rewrite history, the Nuggets stand united, embodying the spirit of a true team, showing that the sum of the parts can be as potent, if not more so, than the individual stars.