Having both the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay lose on the NFC side really put Super Bowl projections upside down. Friday Super Bowl line? NFC -3.5. Monday Super Bowl line? AFC -4.0. Right now, the New England Patriots are the team to beat and only would pay a $100.00 bet to win the Super Bowl back $120.00 profit (Ravens $600.00 and Giants/49ers both $325.00). Offshore opened the Ravens and Patriots total at 48.0. Already up to 50.5, while the Giants & 49ers total went from 44.0 to 43.0/42.5. As of now the public is pretty much split on side and total in the 49ers/Giants game but leaning Patriots and the Over by about a 60-40% margin. So how did the weekend treat the bookmakers and we take a look into what they predict the Super Bowl line will be.
Look ahead:
"This week I think the public will be on the Giants and Patriots. I believe the wiseguys will play the 49ers. If they hold off they will get them at a good number like -1 or pick. I don't think the wiseguys will jump in on the Ravens until it gets to at least 9. One man's humble opinion."
-Chris Andrews from Cal Neva
How did the NFL Playoffs treat you over the weekend?
"The best result of the week was Texans covering by ½ point over the Ravens. Our worst loss was Patriots slaughtering of Tim Tebow. Handle for the weekend was above average. I was in Reno for weekend and it was wall-to-wall people rooting for the 49ers. I’ve never seen so many people coming up the counter to place $10 money line bets on their team. It’s great for city of Reno to have 49ers relevant again. If the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl the state of Nevada will handle more bets on the game than any of the past five years. It would be a great shot in the arm for Nevada, specifically Northern Nevada going to back the Montana-Rice years."
-Jimmy Vaccaro from Lucky's Race and Sports Book
"We had good days both Saturday and Sunday. The totals both hurt us on Sunday, however. It looked like the Raven game was a dead over (which we needed) and it stayed under. The Giants game was on an under pace until the TD on the last play of the half."
-Chris Andrews from Cal Neva
Any exposure on open futures or props you are concerned about?
"One of our big players made a large bet a few weeks ago on the Giants to win the conference and the Super Bowl. Other than that we are in pretty good shape with the futures."
-Chris Andrews from Cal Neva
"We’re in great shape all around our Super Bowl futures."
-Jimmy Vaccaro from Lucky's Race and Sports Book
Line predictions for possible Super Bowl matchups:
"SF vs. BAL, NE: NE -4, Pick em and NYG vs. BAL, NE: NE -4, Pick ‘em"
-Jimmy Vaccaro from Lucky's Race and Sports Book
"SF -1 vs. Baltimore, NE-4 vs. SF, NE-2 vs. NYG, NYG -3 vs.Ravens"
-Chris Andrews from Cal Neva
Have always heard the lines for CBB toughen up (especially the totals) once conference play begins, thoughts on this?
"College hoop number definitely get much tougher now that we are in conference play. Most of these teams have a long history against one another despite the fact that there is so much turnover. It makes number making much easier."
-Chris Andrews from Cal Neva
Lenny Del Genio Talks Unbeatable Wiseguys
Lenny Del Genio talks about the wiseguys that will beat any book, including The Computer Group with Billy Walters, Billy Baxter - the sharpest totals player Lenny every saw - and Steve Wynn's strong history of supporting sports book innovation. And how the lack of "gamble" of modern day casinos extends even to table game.
More tidbits from Las Vegas, Nevada and RJ Bell of Pregame.com (follow RJ on twitter):
Super Bowl odds
($100 on team wins . . . )
Patriots +$120 (44% chance)
49ers +$350 (21% chance)
Giants +$350 (21% chance)
Ravens +$600 (14% chance)
Patriots 7.5-point favorites over Ravens (over/under total 51)
FIRST time since 2007 season Ravens underdogs of more than a touchdown.
FORTH Conference Championship favorite of over a TD in last 10 seasons (20 games).
SECOND time Conference Championship over/under total is bigger than 50 in last 10 seasons (20 games).
49ers 2.5-point favorites over Giants (over/under total 44)
FIRST time Conference Championship favorite is favored by less than a field goal in last 10 seasons (20 games).
Odds of EXACT Super Bowl results (in order of likelihood)
* from Cal-Neva sportsbooks
($100 on result wins . . . )
Patriots beat 49ers: +$220 (26%)
Patriots beat Giants: +$350 (19%)
49ers beat Patriots: +$500 (14%)
Giants beat Patriots: +$600 (12%)
Ravens beat 49ers: +$1000 (8%)
49ers beat Ravens: $1000 (8%)
Ravens beat Giants: $1200 (6.5%)
Giants beat Ravens: $1200 (6.5%)
Super Bowl line:
Before this weekend, NFC was favored by 4-points over AFC.
AFC is now favored by 4-points over NFC.
Las Vegas Contributors:
-Chris Andrews from Cal Neva: Las Vegas bookmaker at Cal Neva working directly with legendary oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich. Cal Neva has 35 locations throughout Nevada, including the Las Vegas strip, Henderson, Mesquite, Reno, Sparks, Carson City, South Lake Tahoe, Jackpot, and Gardnerville. You can catch Chris on ESPN945.com and follow him on twitter at @andrewssports.
-Jimmy Vaccaro from Lucky's Race and Sports Book: Legendary Las Vegas bookmaker and Director of Sports Operations and Public Relations. Lucky’s Race & Sports Book has 17 locations, including the Riviera Hotel & Casino, Fitzgeralds Casino & Hotel, Plaza Hotel & Casino and Terrible's Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, the Grand Sierra Resort & Casino in Reno, John Ascuaga's Nugget in Sparks, Pioneer Hotel & Gambling Hall and River Palms Resort Casino in Laughlin. Follow Jimmy V and Lucky’s on twitter at @JimmyVaccaro and @betatluckys.
Offshore Contributors:
-Oddsmakers from BetOnline: BetOnline operates out of Panama City, Panama, which has been referred to as "the banking capital of Latin America". Panama is a reliable and secure business environment, providing a solid infrastructure, cutting-edge Internet bandwidth and a government that strictly regulates and monitors offshore gaming activity. @DaveMasonBOL
-Phill Gray the Line Management Supervisor from Sports Interaction: Sports Interaction, the first online sportsbook licensed and regulated in North America, has been the No 1 choice in the online gambling market for more than ten years. Sports Interaction is overseen and regulated by the Kanhawake Gaming Commission