The Australian Open men's finals will see World No. 1 Novak Djokovic take on rival and World No. 2 Rafael Nadal. The match is scheduled for a 3:30 a.m. EST start time on Sunday morning and it will be televised nationally on ESPN2. Currently the odds have Djokovic favored on the moneyline at -150, which means he has a 60% chance to win the title. Nadal's odds currently sit +130 on the moneyline, which means he has a 40% chance to win outright.
Free Analysis: Both of these living legends have had a great run to the finals of the Australian Open. Each has been ranked in the Top 3 in the World for several years and starting the season participating in a Grand Slam finals is what nearly everyone expected to happen. In looking at recent action, it has to be noted that Djokovic has a clear advantage. In the 2011 Djokovic flat out dominated Nadal is every match they played. The Joker and Rafa met up six times last season, all of which came in the finals, which isn't surprising as the two clear-cut best players in the world. Nadal finished 0-6 against the Joker and lost twice in Grand Slam Finals. "I know that I maybe have a mental edge because I've won six finals the five or six times we played in 2011 and I've had lots of success against him," Djokovic said. "On the other hand, it's a new year. It's a new challenge. It's a different situation. As I said, he has maybe a day advantage over me for recovery and for getting ready for the finals. That's going to be my main priority and concern the next day and a half, to physically be able to perform my best and be ready to play five sets. If I am able to do that, then I can believe that I can win." Djokovic was able to pick up wins at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open to flex his supremacy on the court. However, if we look at the overall body of work, we see that Nadal holds a pretty decent 16-13 record over the World's No. 1. Of those wins by Nadal, 14 of them came prior to the 2010 season. That in itself has shown that this rivalry has gone full-blown tilt toward Djokovic, who will be looking to win his second straight Australian Open. Both have had good tournament so far and are coming off extremely tough matches in the semifinals. Nadal played against longtime rival Roger Federer in a four-set match a few nights ago and will have one more day of rest, but at this point on their lives, I really don't think it will be much of an issue. Djokovic was able to fend off Andy Murray in a five-set marathon 6-3, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 7-5 that lasted nearly five hours. They combined for 345 points, totaling 96 winners and 155 unforced errors in a match that got to a point where it was exhausting just to watch. “You have to find strength in those moments and energy, and that keeps you going, I guess,” Djokovic said. “At this level, very few points decide the winner, as it was the case tonight." The question will be how much will Joker be able to bring on Sunday morning (EST) after a match that seemed to continue to go on and on. Given his recent success overall and against Nadal, my guess is that he'll be ready and just fine.
Free Pick: I don't have a problem laying -150 on a guy like Joker, even in a match where he's playing one of the best players ever in Rafa. Sure, Nadal is getting some extra hours of down-time, but both guys are under the age of 25, so conditioning at this point, especially with the two best players in the world, shouldn't be an issue. Nadal enters the finals as an underdog in his second straight match, which is hard to believe given how good he is. However, oddsmakers have made him a dog in this matchup for a reason. Joker has beaten Nadal six straight times in tournament finals and I think that continues again Sunday.