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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
  • Last Update:
    06/26/2022 4:05 PM

Auburn Tigers Basketball Point Shaving Examined

RJ Bell from Pregame based in Las Vegas has examined the Auburn Tigers basketball team point shaving allegations. Data analysis on the two specific games mentioned in the Auburn point-shaving allegations. Corrupt games typically share two tendencies: 1) There is lopsided betting action AGAINST the team paid to lose. One way to measure betting action is the percentage of bets made on each team.

Arkansas 66% | Auburn 34%

Alabama 36% | Auburn 64%

Conclusion: Auburn received less bets in one game, and more bets in the other  – by about the same margin. A second way to measure lopsided action is movement in the odds. When one team receives a disproportionate amount of action, the odds for that team are made worse (to discourage additional action).

Arkansas started as a 10.5-point favorite over Auburn, and closed as a 9.5-point favorite (implying lopsided action ON Auburn).

Alabama started as a 5-point favorite over Auburn, and closed as a 5-point favorite (implying even action).

Conclusion: Neither game had lopsided action against Auburn  – and one game had exactly the opposite (i.e., lopsided action ON Auburn)

Second tendency of corrupt games: 2) The team paid to lose actually loses the game against the Vegas spread.

Betting against Auburn (and on Arkansas) LOST vs. the Vegas spread.

Betting against Auburn (and on Alabama) WON vs. the Vegas spread.

Conclusion: 1-1 record would have resulted in any point-shavers LOSING money overall (after accounting for sportsbook commissions) 

RJ Bell of said: “Las Vegas data on the two specific games named in the Auburn investigation is inconsistent with point-shaving” As an example of data consistent with point-shaving, consider the notorious case of Tim Donaghy (as reported by at the time): The first 15 games of the 2006-07 NBA season refereed by Tim Donaghy that had lopsided enough betting to move the point spread by at least 1.5 points were UNDEFEATED against Las Vegas - meaning that the big money gamblers won a perfect 15 of 15 times on his games. The odds of that happening randomly were 32,767 to 1.

MovieSports Betting - Is It Fixed? Pregame's own Johnny Detroit discusses with Vegas Runner the past situations where sports betting was fixed and also discuss the inevitable question of "Is Sports Betting Fixed?"