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Sports news with a Vegas perspective.

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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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Atlantic 10 Title Odds VCU Rams vs Dayton Flyers Free Pick

Today the VCU Rams will take on the Dayton Flyers in the Finals of the Atlantic-10 Tournament, which is being played at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The game has a start time of 1:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on CBS. Current Vegas betting odds have the Rams listed as 2.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 129.5. 

Analysis:  The VCU Rams did not finish the regular season on a strong note as hey had won just 1 of their final 4 games, but they have turned it around in the A-10 Tourney in beating Fordham, Richmond and then Davidson by 20 points yesterday to advance to the finals. Overall the Rams have gone 25-9 on the year. The Rams have gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. VCU has been a good offensive team this year, as they come in ranked 54th in scoring (72.5 ppg), 261st in shooting (42.0%), 189th in 3 point shooting (34.1%) and 293rd in FT shooting (65.7%). Defensively the Rams have not been rather average this year, ranking 144th in points allowed (65.5 ppg), 193rd in defensive FG% (43.4%) and 207th in 3 point defense (34.7%).

The Dayton Flyers came into the A-10 tournament w as the number two see, so seeing them in the Title game is no shock here. The Flyers are a solid 25-7 on the year overall and have advanced to the finals by beating St Bonaventure and Rhode Island. Dayton has gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games. The Flyers have been a very average offensive squad this year, ranking 153rd in scoring (68.3 ppg), 50th in shooting (46.6%), 119th in 3 point shooting (35.5%) and 229th in FT shooting (67.9%). The defense for this team has been solid, ranking 41st in points allowed (60.6 ppg), 126th in defensive FG% (42.1%) and 47th in 3 point defense (31.5%).  

Pick: I will be going with the Under in this one. The Rams played a high scoring game vs Davidson yesterday, but games vs the Wildcats are usually high scoring. With the way the Flyers have played defense of late I don't feel this one will get high scoring. The Flyers have been a solid defensive team all year, but even better of late as they have allowed just 58.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Rams are not a great defensive team and their havoc defense will speed games up, but Dayton has solid ball handlers that should combat that. Still the Rams have allowed just 63.4 ppg away from home this year. The Flyers are not an uptempo team and  have averaged just 63.4 ppg away from home and just 63.6 ppg in their last 5 games. The earlier matchup this year saw a 59-55 final and this one may not put up a whole lot more than that as championship games are usually played close to the vest. Let's call for a 61-58 final.    

 

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