Aldrich Potgieter's Breakthrough and 2025 John Deere Classic Preview
The Rocket Mortgage Classic concluded with one of the most thrilling finishes of the PGA season as 20-year-old Aldrich Potgieter captured victory in a five-hole playoff, defeating Max Gray Sherman and Chris Kirk. Potgieter, who opened with a blistering 62, followed up with rounds of 70, 65, and 69 to secure the win. Golf analyst Will Doctor, who had backed Potgieter pre-tournament at 125-1 odds, marked the victory as a game-changer—turning a -72.9 unit losing season into a +52.8 unit profit week with a 125.8 unit gain.
Chris Kirk, a six-time tour winner, opened with consecutive 65s and had two chances to seal the win with birdies on the 18th in regulation and the first playoff hole, both missed. Despite a strong showing and emotional post-match interview, he was eliminated in the second playoff round. Max Gray Sherman demonstrated major composure, birdieing holes 16 and 18 to force the playoff. His putting under pressure was noteworthy, although several near-makes during the playoff didn’t fall.
Potgieter’s scrambling and short game were key. He ranked fifth in strokes gained around the greens in round three and gained over a stroke total in that stat across the event. Doctor defended criticisms of Potgieter's third round being front-loaded with birdies, highlighting key up-and-downs and poise under pressure. The winning 17-foot birdie at the fifth playoff hole on the par-3 15th secured his place among the youngest winners since 1983, joining elite names like Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth.
Doctor praised CBS for its emotionally resonant broadcast and advocated for restoring full 156-player fields on the PGA Tour, noting the compelling range of ages in the playoff (20s, 30s, 40s) and underdog stories like Will Gordon saving his card and Brett White making the cut as a Monday qualifier.
In betting recaps, Doctor’s highlights included winning top-20 bets on Potgieter, Sherman, and Cam Champ. Failing picks included Stephen Jaeger, who had his worst driving stats in 25 starts, and Lee Hodges, who dropped out of contention with a poor Saturday. Keegan Bradley and Denny McCarthy also failed to convert.
Turning to the John Deere Classic, Doctor previews TPC Deere Run as a course suiting bombers, elite wedge players under 125 yards, and strong bentgrass putters. He passes on Ben Griffin due to fatigue, McCarthy due to inconsistent third rounds and poor wedge stats, and JT Poston and Si Woo Kim for weak recent form. Jason Day is a top-10 pick thanks to fresh legs and great short iron stats. Michael Thorbjornsen, ranked second in total driving, is the top outright pick at 33-1, backed by improved putting and strong recent finishes.
Additional outrights include Thriston Lawrence (80-1), praised for his DP World Tour wins and top-12 at Oakmont, and Cam Champ (80-1), who has shown across-the-board statistical improvement and past success at Deere Run. Doctor also recommends Jason Day over Si Woo Kim and Jackson Koivun over Quade Cummins in matchups.
Top-10 and top-20 placements include Day (+225), Champ (+320), and Thorbjornsen (+137), with Thorbjornsen’s top-20 listed as the best bet. First-round specials feature Thorbjornsen, Pearson Cootie, and Champ to finish in the top 10. DFS picks span two lineups across DraftKings and PGA Tour Fantasy, with Doctor predicting a winning score of 23-under. His insights blend strong statistical foundations with timely betting strategies, solidifying his comeback on the PGA betting scene.