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    09/07/2011 10:47 PM
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College Basketball Betting Odds North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Cavaliers Free Pick

Tonight the North Carolina Tar Heels will take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the Semifinals of the ACC Tournament, which will be played at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina. The game has a start time of 7:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN and the ACC Network. Current Vegas betting odds have the Cavaliers listed as 4.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 123. 

Analysis:  The North Carolina Tar Heels had been a real inconsistent team down the stretch as they had lost 6 of their last 10 games, with two of those losses coming at the hands of the Duke Blue Devils. They started off their quest for the ACC Title with a solid 81-63 over Boston College and then followed that up with a nice 70-6 win over Louisville yesterday. The Heels are now at 23-10 overall for the year. North Carolina has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, but just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Carolina has been a very good offensive team this year, as they come in ranked 18th in scoring (78.0 ppg), 30th in shooting (47.2%), 175th in 3 point shooting (34.3%) and 130th in FT shooting (70.2%). Defensively the Heels have not been so good, ranking 218th in points allowed (67.8 ppg), 29th in defensive FG% (39.3%) and 9th in 3 point defense (29.2%).

The Virginia Cavaliers had their 9 game win streak snapped on the last day of the regular season in a hard fought 59-57 road loss to Louisville. They got back on track yesterday with a 58-44 win over Florida State. The Cavs are now 29-2 overall and have gone 17-2 vs ACC competition this year. UVA has gone 30-11-2 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, but just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. The Cavaliers have not been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 232nd in scoring (65.3 ppg), 54th in shooting (46.4%), 94th in 3 point shooting (36.3%) and 78th in FT shooting (72.0%). Defensively the Cavs have been excellent this year, ranking 1st in points allowed (50.1 ppg), 3rd in defensive FG% (35.7%) and 19th in 3 point defense (30.0%).

Pick: Going with the Over in this one. I know how tough this Virginia defense is and how slow they play on offense, but I still feel that we can get to at least 124 points in this one, especially since these teams put up 139 points in an earlier matchup this year. The Heels are clicking on offense right now as they have averaged 76 ppg in their last 5 games and I fully expect them to push tempo here because they do not want to face this Cavs half court defense. Virginia is not a strong offensive team, but this is a Carolina team that will give up points and I feel that Virginia will score their share. I look for 130+ in this one.  

 

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