Today the Florida State Seminoles will take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, which will be played at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina. The game has a start time of 12:00 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN and the ACC Network. Current Vegas betting odds have the Cavaliers listed as 11.5 point favorites, while the total is set at 113.5.
Analysis: The Florida State Seminoles snapped a 3 game losing on the last day of the regular season with a 9 point win over Pittsburgh and then followed that up with a 3 point win over Clemson in the 2nd round of the tournament. The Noles are now 17-15 on the year and will clearly need to win the ACC Tournament for a date in the Big Dance. The Noles have gone 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Seminoles have been a very average offensive team this year, ranking 181st in scoring (67.3 ppg), 61st in shooting (46.1%), 280th in 3 point shooting (31.4%) and 254th in FT shooting (67.0%). The defense for this team has not been that good as they come in ranked 195th in points allowed (67.2 ppg), 117th in defensive FG% (41.8%) and 79th in 3 point defense (32.3%).
The Virginia Cavaliers had their 9 game win streak snapped on the last day of the regular season in a hard fought 59-57 road loss to Louisville. The Cavs are now 28-2 overall and have clinched the top seed in the ACC tournament as they went 16-2 in ACC play this year. Even with the loss the Cavs should still grab a number 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. UVA has gone 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss and 29-11-2 ATS in their last 42 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Cavaliers have not been a very good offensive team this year, ranking 223rd in scoring (65.5 ppg), 55th in shooting (46.3%), 94th in 3 point shooting (36.2%) and 82nd in FT shooting (71.6%). Defensively the Cavs have been excellent this year, ranking 1st in points allowed (50.3 ppg), 3rd in defensive FG% (35.8%) and 23rd in 3 point defense (30.4%).
Pick: Going with the Under here. i know this is a low OU line, but still some great under trends for this game. The Under is 15-3 the last 18 in the series, while the Under is 10-2 in FSUs last 12 vs a team with a winning record and 13-3 in the Cavs last 16 vs a team with a winning record. The Noles did score 76 points vs Clemson yesterday, but this is whole different defense that is 1st in the nation in points allowed and they have been even better down the stretch, allowing just 47.8 ppg in their last 6 games. The Noles scored just 51 and 41 points vs Virginia this year and I don't see them getting out of the 40s here. The Noles are not a great defensive team, but you don't have to be vs a Cavs team that plays at a snails pace on offense. The Cavs will not run, no matter how bad a defense is, because they know they have a tough defense backing them up. 61-48 sounds about right for this one.
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