Sunday night college basketball and we will see the Virginia Tech Hokies travel to the Dean E. Smith Center to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. The game has a start time of 6:30 pm (Eastern) and will be televised on ESPN U. Current Vegas betting odds have North Carolina listed as 21 point favorites, while the total is set at 148.
Analysis: This could be a long season in Hokie land as they have already lost their first 3 games in the ACC this year. Overall V Tech has lost 4 games in a row and are 8-8 on the year overall, including 0-4 on the road. The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in North Carolina, but just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Va Tech has been an average offensive team, as they come in ranked 150th in scoring (69.0), 44th in shooting (47.0%), 13th in 3 point shooting (40.5%) and 341st in FT shooting (61.3%). Defensively the Hokies have not been that good, ranking 199th in points allowed (66.9 ppg), 111th in defensive FG% (41.0%) and 160th in 3 point defense (33.2%).
The North Carolina Tar Heels come into this game off a hard fought 81-79 road win off over NC State, which followed a hard fought 72-71 win over the Louisville Cardinals. The Heels are now at 12-4 overall, which includes a 3-1 mark in AAC play and a 6-2 record at home. North Carolina is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, but just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. Atlantic Coast. The Heels have been a very good offensive squad this year, ranking 17th in scoring (79.6 ppg), 80th in shooting (45.7%), 241st in 3 point shooting (32.0%) and 121st in FT shooting (70.5%). The defense for this team has been average, ranking 165th in points allowed (65.6 ppg), 11th in defensive FG% (36.6%) and 5th in 3 point defense (26.7%).
Pick: I like the Hokies to keep this one closer than the big number. North Carolina has had much better teams than this year's team and yet haven't beaten the Hokies by more than 14 points in each of the last 9 meetings. North Carolina is off Notre Dame, Louisville and a road game with in state rival NC State and they have a road game vs Wake Forest on deck, so they may not be fully focused for this one vs the lowly Hokies, plus we note that the Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs the ACC. Va Tech is off BB road losses vs Louisville and Florida State, but only lost by 15 and 11 points in the two games respectively. The Heels have a strong offense, but they are not a great shooting team and horrible from long range, plus their defense is suspect and that should allow the Hokies to stay within the number as they have averaged 69 ppg and are 13th in the nation in 3-point shooting. Too big a number here for the Heels to cover.
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