2025 Masters Betting Breakdown: Expert Picks, Analysis & Tournament Preview

Introduction

The 2025 Masters Tournament at Augusta National brings together the finest golfers in the world, and with it comes the excitement of betting, analysis, and speculation. In a detailed two-hour podcast hosted by Will Docter on Pregame's Golf Preview Network, listeners are treated to a meticulous breakdown of all 95 participants. This article condenses that discussion into a comprehensive guide for both casual fans and seasoned bettors.

A Rough Start and Futures Tickets

Will opens the podcast by acknowledging a difficult betting stretch, down 62 units for the year. However, the focus quickly shifts to the Masters, and he lays out his futures tickets from December:

• Scottie Scheffler (7-1)

• Ludwig Aberg (14-1)

• Sung Jae Im (50-1)

• Sepp Straka (100-1)

He also holds major-win tickets on Sahith Theegala (14-1), Tom Kim (18-1), and Davis Thompson (25-1).

Top Contenders: Analysis & Quotes

Scottie Scheffler

Scheffler enters as the dominant favorite at +525. He’s not finished worse than 25th in six starts since returning from injury and recently posted rounds of 62 and 63 in Houston. In a clip, Scheffler credits his Texas upbringing for honing his adaptability—key to navigating Augusta's variable conditions. Will calls Scheffler “the complete package” and a must-back.

Rory McIlroy

Rory opened at +725 but is passed over due to declining driving accuracy despite victories at Pebble Beach and the Players. While Rory fondly remembers watching the Masters with his father, Will asserts that emotional nostalgia doesn’t outweigh his recent inconsistency.

Jon Rahm

Rahm sits at 16-1. He’s shown form with a recent LIV Golf win and multiple top-10s but has regressed in chipping and putting. Though Rahm has historically thrived at Augusta, Will is out at that price, citing limited sharpness.

Strategic Matchups and Bets

Collin Morikawa

Opening at 18-1, Morikawa is elite in ball striking but has faltered in four final rounds this season. Will places a top-10 first-round finish bet at +220 and critiques Morikawa’s recent comments about media coverage as a sign of poor mental framing.

Victor Hovland

Fresh off a Valspar win, Hovland is praised for elite iron play and improved confidence in his short game. A key quote from him expresses excitement about the progress he’s made. Will places a matchup bet on Hovland over Cam Smith (-125).

Robert MacIntyre

MacIntyre is a value pick at 60-1 with three straight top-11s. Will backs him outright and in a matchup over Tyrell Hatton, who has struggled with accuracy and putting.

Key Fade Picks

Several players are avoided for strategic reasons:

• Bryson DeChambeau (20-1): Strong driver but inconsistent irons.

• Tom Kim (150-1): Recent form is poor; faded against Keegan Bradley.

• Jordan Spieth (40-1): Unreliable iron play undermines strong short game.

• Sung Jae Im (50-1 futures): One of Will’s most regrettable picks.

Underrated Performers

Shane Lowry

Backed for a top 20 at +110, Lowry is playing solidly and historically performs well on Augusta’s Bentgrass greens. His quote reflects a grounded mental approach focused on reducing expectations.

Sepp Straka

Will holds a 100-1 futures ticket and also backs Straka in multiple first-round matchups, citing strong fairway and iron consistency.

Phil Mickelson & Charles Schwartzel

Veteran Mickelson is picked to make the cut at -150 after top finishes on LIV. Schwartzel’s sharp recent play leads to a similar cut-making prediction.

Fantasy Picks and Predictions

Will crafts a Masters.com fantasy lineup consisting of:

• Past Champion: Scottie Scheffler

• Top American: Patrick Reed

• Top International: Shane Lowry

• First-Timer: Davis Thompson

• Wildcard: Sepp Straka

He predicts a winning score of 16-under, citing mild winds and ideal conditions at Augusta.

Final Thoughts

This episode offers one of the most comprehensive and analytically robust Masters previews available. Will Docter combines sharp statistical analysis, real-time quotes, and betting insight to construct a card that balances top-tier favorites with strategic underdogs. Whether you're looking to build a fantasy lineup or place a few educated wagers, his in-depth research and candid commentary make this a go-to guide for Masters week.

Quotes + Analysis (With Timestamps)

? Scottie Scheffler – [8:32–9:29]

"Growing up in Texas... we play in so many different types of weather and winds... I think it's paid off in a tournament like this where the conditions can change significantly from year to year."

Analysis: Scheffler attributes his adaptability to Texas’s diverse weather. This versatility translates well to Augusta, where conditions often vary. His comment underlines his preparation for unpredictable Masters conditions, which is consistent with his consistent top-tier finishes.

? Rory McIlroy – [11:41–12:05]

"There's the history, those sort of spring evenings where I would sit down with my dad and watch this tournament..."

Analysis: Rory's love for Augusta is nostalgic, tied to his upbringing. While this adds emotional significance, Will Docter sees flaws in Rory’s current driving stats, arguing sentiment won’t compensate for recent performance declines.

? Collin Morikawa – [~15:10]

"The media never talked to me during my first trip inside the world's top 10... they only cover me when I'm playing well."

Analysis: Morikawa’s defensive stance suggests pressure and distraction going into Augusta. Will critiques this as a misdirected attitude, calling it poor preparation and hinting at mental fragility under final-round pressure.

? Shane Lowry – [38:11–39:20]

"I need to lower my expectations a little bit and just go and play my game..."

Analysis: Lowry is grounded, aware of both his momentum and the mental traps of overexpectation. Will supports this view and places a top-20 bet on him, citing consistent performance and good putting history on Bentgrass.

? Xander Schauffele – [43:39–44:37]

"There’s a peaceful... serene part of it if you allow yourself to enjoy it... but the hardest thing is to stick to your process."

Analysis: Schauffele's reflection on pressure reveals maturity, though Will notes that Xander’s putting and driving inconsistencies eliminate him from betting consideration this week, despite strong approach play.

? Ludwig Aberg – [45:54–47:24]

"Even though things have been up and down... I still do the same things... in terms of practice and training..."

Analysis: Aberg acknowledges a slump but stays committed to routine. Will sees this as admirable but questions his form, citing two missed cuts and issues around the greens. That said, Will still holds a 14-1 ticket.

? Victor Hovland – [1:04:34–1:05:32]

"Been spending a lot of time around the greens... I feel like I’m able to pull the shots off... I have that belief again."

Analysis: Hovland is optimistic about improvements in his short game—historically his weakness at Augusta. Will loves this confidence and makes a matchup bet for Hovland over Cam Smith, praising his elite ball-striking and recent win.

? Will Docter (general tone)

"There is no reason not to love world number one Scottie Scheffler at 7-1 this week."
"My 9-1 futures ticket on the Cougars burned in front of my eyes..."

Analysis: Will mixes sharp analytical insights with a passionate, emotionally driven style. He uses vivid metaphors (burned tickets, "the sweet-swinging Swede") and isn't afraid to self-deprecate when prior bets go wrong, building trust in his current picks.

? Phil Mickelson (Paraphrased Summary from Will)

“He’s in fantastic form... I see no reason he doesn’t make the cut.”

Analysis: While there's no direct quote from Phil, Will believes Mickelson’s last three finishes justify a strong play. Despite the age, Will trusts the trend and picks him to make the cut, especially given Phil’s 2023 runner-up finish.