After the Celtics took a 1-0 series lead in these NBA Finals, I wrote a Blog about the adjusted series price that the books were offering the Celtics. At the time, you were able to get EVEN money on them and the stats I offered showed us that history supports the Celtics had an 80% chance of winning the Championship at that time...give or take a few % points...well we all know what happened last night, and with that win, the Celtics are now up 2-0 in the Finals. Not only that, but this team is guaranteed to return home to decide who will be crowned the 2008 NBA Champs.

So it was once again time for the oddsmakers and bookmakers to adjust the series price once more. And this time, they not only had to take into account all of the series bets that were placed before it even began, but they also had to take into account all of the series wagers they managed to book after Game 1 concluded. And what did they come up with now ??? I have seen the number anywhere from BOSTON -125, all the way to -140. I decided to do the math real quick to see what kind of win % does someone need to profit at those prices. The answer...between 55.5% & 58.5%.

Then it was time to take a look back at both the history of the NBA and even the other major sports who determine their Champion with a 7 Game Series...here is what I found :

TEAMS UP 2-0 in NBA FINALS (Gm 1&2 at Home) = WIN the CHAMPIONSHIP 88% (22-3)

TEAMS UP 2-0 in ALL FINALS (Gm 1&2 at Home) = WIN the CHAMPIONSHIP 88% (81-11)

I decided to go a little further, for an even bigger sample size and see how teams fared in the Entire Post-Season under these circumstances :

TEAMS UP 2-0 in NBA PLAYOFFS (Gm 1&2 at Home) = WIN the SERIES 94% (172-11)

TEAMS UP 2-0 in ALL PLAYOFFS (Gm 1&2 at Home) = WIN the SERIES 91% (405-42)

That is what history tells us we can expect, and although each event is its own independent series...its tough to argue with such compelling numbers as those above. I was pretty surprised that they chose such a low number to send out and I am very eager to see what kind of figures they had pending on this series to make that decision. I have already urged my clients to make a 3* Wager on the Celtics at +160 before the series began, but I have to be honest and tell you that I will spend a lot of time over the next 24hrs trying to determine if we should take a stronger stand on the outcome...I actually can't wait to make my rounds through the books later today to try and guage what is actually happening as well as some of the reasoning behind the price...

I was hoping to hear what many of you think about the series and how you expect it will unfold...and if you would consider taking either of these 2 teams at the adjusted price ??? Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...