The NFL is officially going to have a full season after ending the lock-out and it’s already apparent that fans and bettors couldn’t be more excited. Ticket sales are up and bookmakers are working on getting prices up for bettors to wager on. No sport receives the support of fans and bettors like football does and we are now just weeks away from seeing an influx of bettors enter the market place.
For now MLB is center stage and unlike NFL and CFB, wise guy money outweighs public money. More importantly, many recreational bettors can now see that it’s only a matter of time before they are betting almost daily on football. That means they won’t want to risk too much of their bankroll on MLB over the next few weeks.
What they will be doing is putting in more parlays and seeing if they can increase their football bankroll by making a score by putting small amounts of money at risk. To compensate for this bias, odds makers will simply inflate the prices on the most marquee teams and also inflate the “run-line” since most recreational bettors will look there when betting big favorites.
Finally, there are still much more “semi-pro” bettors who do wager year around and odds makers are well aware of this fact. Therefore, the lines will still be influenced by perception and there will be many match-ups where they elect to offer a “fair line” as opposed to a “true line”
Remember that the objective of a “fair line” is to split the betting action and the goal of a “true line” is to split the result. That simply means sharp bettors will find more value when betting into fair-lines. Bookmakers are ok with this because they know recreational bettors will limit their liability by creating balance.
TOP “5” OVER-VALUED MLB TEAMS & MMA FIGHTERS :
1.) DAN HENDERSON
Yes, an underdog can definitely be over-valued when the odds don’t reflect the true win probability…At 40yrs old the former Olympic wrestler is still a fan favorite and the current Strikeforce light-heavy weight champion…Hendo hasn’t beaten a top-level opponent in over 2 years and will be fighting Fedor at heavyweight…Bottom line, if this fight happened before Fedor’s air of invincibility was lost, the price would be much closer to -350 than -200...This don’t mean Hendo won’t win, it simply means there isn’t much value at this price.
2.) TAMPA BAY RAYS
Now 9.5 games out of 1st place in the AL East, they have almost no shot at the post-season unless they win the division by besting the Red Sox and Yankees…It’ll be tough to stay motivated the more this fact sinks in but they get enough public money backing them to force an inflated price from odds makers…They’re below .500 at home but almost always listed as the favorite.
3.) LA DODGERS
A $100 bettor is down over $1300 backing them and with a negative 40 run differential they should continue to cost supporters at the betting window…Maybe it’s because they’re a big market team or maybe it’s the huge fan base, regardless they receive a lot of money from the public…At 13 games out of 1st place and 10 games below .500, this is one team that offers very little value as a favorite.
4.) DETROIT TIGERS
They may be in 1st place in the AL Central but unlike the two teams behind them, the Tigers have a negative run differential…Even with a losing record on the road, they receive enough betting action to force odds makers to send them out as favorites…As this race heats up, an even bigger premium will be added to compensate for the money they attract nightly.
5.) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
There was a time when they were under-valued but now that they are in a 3 team race for 1st place in the NL Central, the price to back them is being inflated…NO team in MLB has lost more games on the road but in their L/10 road games they’ve only been a dog of +120 or more 1 time…As long as they’re battling for the division they won’t offer much value.
TOP “5” UNDER-VALUED MLB TEAMS & MMA FIGHTER :
1.) FEDOR EMELIANENKO
Once considered the best in the world at MMA after back to back loses the “unbeatable” perception is gone…The initial opener for his fight with Hendo was -275 but it’s been bet down to -200 with more money expected on the dog as the fight draws near…At 34 yrs of age and plenty of interests outside the cage, many question if the desire to compete and be the best is still his priority…Many UFC fans have a dislike for Fedor and that will be reflected in the betting action come Saturday…Again, Fedor may not win the fight but at -200 and probably better, that’s where the value lies.
2.) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
If it’s not broken, why try to fix it…Tied for 1st place in the NL Central and the MOST profitable team in all of MLB, they still don’t get much support from bettors…They’ve got a winning record at home and on the road and have a positive run differential…As long as they are in the race and stay motivated, they’ll continue to turn a profit for supporters because odds makers are forced to offer them at a discount.
3.) CLEVELAND INDIANS
They are 1 game out of 1st place in the AL Central and have a positive run differential…At home they’re 8 games above .500 but have been offered as the dog in 4 straight…Bookmakers report that not only are bettors avoiding them, but they’re even fading the Tribe and expecting to see a regression…A $100 bettor is up almost a dime and they’ll continue to produce a profit and offer value based on perception.
4.) SF GIANTS
It’s rare to see the defending World Series champions offer value the next season but bettors thought they got hot at the right time more than it was based on talent…Already 16 games above .500 and in the top 5 for home wins in all of MLB…The pitching staff is #1 in ERA, #1 in K’s, and #2 in WHIP which is exactly what gets it done in the post-season…Another run is not out of the question.
5.) ARIZONA DBACKS
Only 3 teams in the NL have more wins overall this season but they get even less respect than the Giants…With a winning record at home and on the road, it’s surprising to hear that the public fades them more than they back them…They’re ranked 7th in Runs Scored & OPS and will continue to turn a profit in the regular season because odds makers continue to offer them up at a discount…Until the pitching improves, they won’t be much of a threat even if they make the post-season, but for now ONLY 3 teams in all of MLB have made more money for supporters.
MONEY METER : 70% SHARP and 30% PUBLIC
Books reported vere low volume on Monday and even though it's not usual for the first day of the week, it was significantly less than it's been of late. The NFL lock-out coming to an end played a major roll in this and as explained at the top, this trend should continue until the preseason when an influx of new bettors enter the market.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.