VEGAS RUNNER’S VALUE TOP 10 LIST + MONEY METER…for MLB, CFB, & NFL BETTING MARKETS !!
Betting volume continues to increase at the sports books as recreational bettors continue to hold their own against the odds makers in CFB and the NFL. The marquee schools have gotten the money and the prime-time games have gone the public’s way as well. Even with a good mixture of favs and dogs in both CFB and NFL, the most one-sided bet games this past weekend, except for the Ravens and Eagles have gone to the players.
Also, even with an obvious adjustment made on NFL Totals in Week 2 the OVER continues to cash. After 12 of 16 games went OVER the opening number in Week 1, we had the same 12-16 go OVER in Week 2. More importantly, the OVER has cashed on ALL 5 “prime-time” games thus far and that means the books have had to pay out on a lot of parlays and teaser bets.
Finally, this is usually the time when odds makers have a good grasp of what the “public perception” is going into each week and they’ll look to capitalize on their bias. From experience I can tell you that this is the time that many of the biggest and most respected betting syndicates take some of their largest positions, feeling they’ve got an increased edge.
With the betting public’s money outweighing the sharp money being wagered in NFL and most of CFB’s marquee match-ups, the odds makers are willing to send out a “fair line” rather than a “true line”. It’s in those spots where the edge increases most and books are more than willing to give it up in exchange for some balance on money bet. Once again we’re seeing some major adjustments being made on the Sides & Totals for many of this upcoming week’s games.
Below is my list of the 10 most “over & under” valued teams in the betting market based on those adjustments and the public’s perception, along with a break-down of what “type” of money is being bet. Keep in mind that I attempt to categorize EVERY team possible and these are the one’s at the very top…
TOP 5 “OVER-VALUED” TEAMS :
1.) RED SOX, RAYS, BRAVES, & CARDINALS
No need for an “under-valued” list in MLB since they’ll obviously be those teams facing any of the above. The reason is that even though sharps may come in and grab the value, odds makers know the books will receive public money on the “must win” team. These teams will be inflated most on days with no football on the board since that’s when betting volume from recreational bettors increases in MLB. With wise guys money outweighing public money in MLB at this time, these “must win” teams won’t be as inflated when football is being played that day. Cross sport parlays are welcomed and won’t force books to adjust prices.
2.) DETROIT LIONS
Received a ton of public money in Week 1 & 2 and covered the number both times with ease. Lions were the “sexy” pick in the NFC coming into the season and after performing well in preseason, continued picking up supporters. Odds makers know the books will be exposed on the Detroit side in most match-ups going forward and they’ll aim to inflate the price to compensate.
After burning the bettors in Week 1, they did it again in Week 2...but this time it was because they got faded. With a win against the Eagles on a national stage, Week 1 backers will be on board again. I felt they were over-valued coming into the season and my work supported they’d regress from 2010. Regardless, a premium will definitely be added, making them a team that will have to overcome the extra points added in order to turn a profit.
Yes they may have the best defense in all of CFB but after wise guys backed them in “Games of the Year” lines before season started, and public has embraced them as well…odds makers won’t be offering them up at a fair price. They’ll have to OVER-perform going forward to cover the inflated price that they demand.
They made the list last week and they’re on it again after falling to 0-3 ATS. That spread record reflects the fact that they’re extremely over-valued and I believe over-rated. Personally, they are not in my Top 10 but that’s because I base it on “power-ratings” and not perception. Only Indiana & Iowa have allowed more points in the Big 10 but bettors will keep backing them since the AP/USA Today have them ranked so high.
TOP 5 “UNDER-VALUED” TEAMS :
The fact they’re 2-0 ATS supports they’re under-valued in the betting market and that will continue because coming into the season, no team received as much money AGAINST them on season win totals. With the talent on defense they’ll be able to stay in games and as they get more confident on offense and begin using those skill position threats more…they’ll not only cover games, but they’ll start winning them as well.
The least respected 2-0 SU team in the NFL means they’ll continue to be offered at a huge discount by bookmakers. They’ve scored more points than the Pats, Jets, and Fins while allowing less than all expect the Jets in their division. In fact, NO team in the NFL has put up more points offensively and that ability will continue to keep the back door open against the spread and give them the chance to win some games.
Most agreed a major regression was coming in 2011 and though they won’t win the division again, they have the type of defense that’ll keep them in games. With the Lions and Packers receiving all of the attention in the NFC North, odds makers will continue sending them out at a discount and making them the value side in most match-ups.
After almost a decade of being “over-valued” the Trojans came into 2011 without much hype or support due to NCAA violations issues. They’re currently 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS but not getting any respect from pollsters. Historically, a solid team with a strong foundation and competent coach are the exact characteristics of teams that’ll cash tickets when under-valued by bettors.
Yes I said it…Bama is under-valued and under-rated because the #1 team in all of CFB is currently ranked 2nd & 3rd in the polls. Even the “Yahoo Users Poll” has them #3 and it’s a more accurate reflection of the betting market than the major polls. Bottom line, most bettors believe they are NOT the best team in the country, but almost ALL sharps I spoke to prior to creating the list have them #1. It‘s rare to see this type of power-house not getting the respect they deserve from bettors, but that’s the case so ROLL-TIDE-ROLL.
MLB BETTING MARKET = 75% SHARP / 25% PUBLIC
Recreational bettors are using the MLB board to tie up parlays when there’s no football on and using the big favs for cross sport parlays when there is. Odds makers know to send out lines aimed at sharp bettors which is why we’re seeing fewer “true positions” taken by wise guys.
CFB BETTING MARKET = 65% PUBLIC / 35% SHARP
The ratio is much greater on marquee/prime-time match-ups but with so many sides and totals available, there are games where sharp money definitely outweighs public money.
NFL BETTING MARKET = 75% PUBLIC / 25% SHARP
Money wagered early in the week is mostly sharp but come game-day, the public accounts for 90% and more of the action being booked. If not for prop bets, 1st & 2nd halves, etc the ratio overall would be even greater for public money.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead, Vegas-Runner.