VEGAS-RUNNER'S VALUE TOP 10 LIST + MARKET METER !!
The MLB All-Star break is over and soon the attention will shift to the NFL and CFB. Before that happens, the majority of action being booked is on MLB and oddsmakers have definitely made some adjustments. Those adjustments are primarily made based on perception more than actual data from the 1st half since more recreational bettors are entering the MLB market searching for action as summer comes to an end.
There is also plenty of boxing and mma on tap over the next couple of weeks and just like sports teams, there will be fighters that are being over and undervalued in the market. With betting action shaping every market, the less sophisticated the bettors, the more perception influences the price. Since so much money being wagered on fights comes from casual fans, you can be sure perception is weighed heavily.
We took last week off because of the All-Star break, waiting to see what adjustments oddsmakers will make. Now that we've seen the prices for a handful of games/series, we can better determine how to label most teams going forward. Below is this week's list...
TOP 5 "OVER-VALUED" TEAMS/FIGHTERS :
1.) AMIR KHAN
I'm not saying he won't be able to beat Judah on Saturday, but I am saying that oddsmakers have added a heavy premium on Khan...That premium is based more on his connection to Pacquiao and Roach that his accomplishments in the ring...The price reflects his win probability is over 83%, and based on the match-up that's way too high...He is more than twice the price Klitschko was against his countryman Haye just weeks ago.
2.) WHITE SOX
They are only 4.5 games out of first place in their division but have a losing record overall and more importantly at home where they're usually heavily favored...In their L/10 home games they were favored EVERY time but won only 3...With a negative run-differential and a premium attatched, they'll continue to lose money for backers...They've turned in profit in 2 of the L/3 seasons for bettors but that won't be the case in 2011.
Only the Astros have cost bettors more money this season but unlike the Rockies, they don't get much support at the betting windows...They are below .500 at home but have been dogs there only 4 times all season...Ranked 23rd in ERA and WHIP, they don't score enough to overcome such bad pitching...They attract plenty of public money but I can't see them motivated without much chance at the post-season.
You would think with teams like the Yankees and Red Sox in their division, they'd be under-valued...That's not the case because bettors continue to back them especially at home...Unfortunately, they're below .500 at home and should only be backed as favs on the road where they've won 58% of games...Until the offense catches up with the pitching or they have a shot at the division/playoffs, be cautious.
Only 1/2 game out of first place and 5 games above .500, but they haven't made any money for bettors...A $100 bettor would is down for the season, while that same bettor is up almost 2 Dimes backing the Pirates, who have almost an identical record...Name recognition and expectations force oddsmakers to add a premium so it'll be tough for them to turn a profit at their current win rate.
TOP 5 "UNDER-VALUED" TEAMS/FIGHTER :
1.) ZAB JUDAH
The 5-time world champion is given NO chance to win according to ddsmakers this weekend...He's fighting in his natural weight class and is a 15 yr veteran who's been in with the very best throughout...Trained by Pernell Whittaker and only 33 yrs old, he's finally matured and focused on his craft...Any way you slice it, perception is the driving force behind the price and not raw data.
They are NOT going away and are now in first place in their division...No team in baseball has made more money for their backers but they are getting very little support from bettors...Because of that, oddsmakers made them the DOG in 14 of their L/18 games...The way it looks, they'll continue to be offered at a discount while bettors wait for them to regress..."Don't Hold Your Breath" !!
NO team in the AL has made as much money for their backers and yet they don't receive much action at the betting window...They are the ONLY team in their division with a positive run-differential ...In their L/22 games they have not been favored by more than -125 and were the dog in more than half of them...They've proven to have a strong home field edge, winning 60% of games there...As long as bettors don't believe they're for real, they'll continue to make money.
The NL West gets no respect and because of that, the top 2 teams in the division have made backers more money than the Phillies...They've got a positive run-differential and a winning record at home and on the road...Only 2 teams in the entire NL have scored more runs this year and their pitching is improving...As long as they continue to be within reach of the division lead and stay motivated, the discount in price offered by oddsmakers will allow backers to keep profiting.
For a marquee team who has a huge fan base, they'll continue to be discounted by oddsmakers because of the perception surrounding the Phillies...They have the 3rd best record in ALL of baseball and are still +1500 to win the World Series...With the 2nd best run-differential in the NL, they're pitching staff is built for the post-season...The offense will continue to improve and this young team will continue to mature...Not only do I have a future bet on them, I also believe money will keep being made in the regular season by backing this team.
*** MARKET METER ***
65% WISEGUY MONEY....35% PUBLIC MONEY
Last week we had a higher percentage of Wiseguy money than we will have in the coming week...With the break over and many having already taken their vacations, as August nears more bettors will return to seek action...We also have a marquee fight this weekend and those almost always attract a lot of recreational bettors money...The line-moves of late still support the fact that only a few match-ups that include marquee teams are the result of one-sided public money.