"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY APRIL 19th, 2011
VR's "VALUE TOP 10" LIST....for Week of 4-19 thru 4-26 !!
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen...I touched on the fact that when the NBA Playoffs arrive, there's an Increased Edge in the Betting Market, just like there is throughout the month of March...and because of that, I always Increase my Unit Amount to Maximize Profits...
We were able to do exactly that in March...and we're doing it again right now...In fact, we've gone a perfect "7-0" on Premium Plays over the L/2 days...are currently 75% on NBA Playoff Premiums...100% on Playoff 3*s...on a 4-1 MLB Run...and even 3-1 in the NHL Playoffs...
Bottom Line...when there's more Value to be had...and your Edge is greatest against the house...you have to make sure you step up and take advantage, because that Edge just isn't always going to be so huge...or even be there at all...when having to lay 11 to win 10...or even worse...
Now you may be thinking...that was simply a way to market an amazing run, and granted...you wouldn't totally be off...But truth be told, it's even more so a perfect example of the fact to beat this market, and turn a profit short & long term...you have to be able to identify value, and wager accordingly...
And my weekly "Value Top 10" is geared to help you do exactly that...
Go into the new week, knowing which teams the oddsmakers will be forcing you to pay a premium to back...and which teams you will be getting a discount on...And although I don't advocate riding or fading these teams every chance you get...I am urging you to be aware when you are getting the best and worst of it...so that you wager correctly...
Finally, this list is comprised of information gathered from various sources...Such as bookmakers here in Vegas and from Locals across the country, who help me determine which teams are getting the most betting action and leaving them most exposed...It's also put together with information from various Wiseguys & Runners, who are earning their living ny finding value and beating other sharps to the price...And of course, from my own experience of reading and interpreting this market...
And after putting it all together, I go into each and every week...regardless of the sports being played...with my own list of teams that I expect the current & future market to over & under value...
So without further delay, let's get to this week's teams which come from the 2 most popular sports being played at the moment...and more importantly, the 2 that are attracting the most betting volume at the counter and through the internet...
VR's "VALUE TOP 10" LIST...NBA & MLB !!
"5" MOST "OVER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) MIAMI HEAT
The Heat continue to top our over-valued list, being at or near the top down the stretch of the Regular Season and as we began the 1st Round of the Playoffs...And with all the attention this team attracts due to it's "Big 3"...it's obvious the betting market will continue to over-value them, and the oddsmakers will continue to put a premium on bettors looking to back them...Bottom Line, the Heat are 40-41 ATS (disregarding any push/es)...and that's just not bad enough for bookmakers to credit oddsmakers for installing sharp numbers when Miami takes the court...And more importantly, after the way they dismanteled the Sixers in Game 2...rest assured we'll continue to see a premium placed on this club...Finally, what bettors need to realize is that even when the heavy chalk discourages some from making "straight bets" on the Heat...they are by far one of the books biggest exposures as far as exotics are concerned...So inflating the price is going to continue to be in the books best interest.
2.) TEXAS RANGERS
The Rangers made the over-valued list last week...when I stated that NO team ends up having won 90% of their games when the season comes to a close...In fact, I stated that it's rare for the very best teams to win more than 60% of their games in any given season (Phillies Won 59.9% in 2010)...So it was obvious that we were in for a regression to the mean, sooner or later...That regression didn't take all that long, since Texas has gone 5-5 over their L/10 games...and now a game under .500 on the road in 2011...Bottom Line, even with the loss of Hamilton, books from everywhere agree that the Rangers continue to leave them exposed day in and day out...being tied into most of the exotics, and receiving plenty of straight bets as well...Finally, they have won 68.8% of their games so far this season...as we all know what type of win % we can expect when all the dust settles...So it's obvious we'll see an overall regression to that mean...with the only question being, the length of time it takes to reach it...Right now, bettors will be asked to pay a premium to back them...and I don't see that changing any time soon.
3.) DETROIT TIGERS
Most expected the Tigers to compete for that top spot in the AL Central, and as of today, they are 4.5 games out...sitting in 3rd place behind both, the Indians & Royals...A $100 bettor is down a little more than a dollar ($100) backing them on the money-line...and down almost a nickel ($500), betting them on the run-line...So no matter how a bettor has backed them, the Tigers have cost he or she some money for that support...And yet, this team who is also -7 in Run Differential...continues to attract a lot of action from bettors almost every night...The Tigers pitching staff is 24th in ERA & 25th in WHIP...and with an offense who is 15th in Runs Per Game & 17th in OPS...it's surprising to see them in the Favorites role so often...In fact, they've been favored in 7 of their L/17 games...and with 10 of their next 15 games being played at Home...that trend should continue...Bottom Line, even after finishing at .500 in 2010...the perception is that they are a top tier ball club...And although thay may eventually prove to be the case, right now...that perception is costing bettors some money.
4.) OKLAHOMA CITY
Yes, after being by-passed last week...this "sexy" pick to win the NBA Championship, or at least represent the Western Conference...has definitely earned a spot this week...In fact, in their 1st Playoff Game against the Nuggets...we saw the betting market force the books to adjust the point-spread from an opening number of -4...to a closing number of -6...And wouldn't you know it, the oddsmakers got it right...as the Thunder went on to win the game by 4 pts...The only ones who made any money on that result, were the Betting Syndicates who attempted to get out ahead of the public by laying that opening line of -4...But only because they came back and took the Nuggets at +6 before tip-off...looking to both, attempt a "middle"...and also get the best of it based on the forced adjustment made by books everywhere...Bottom Line, the Thunder fnd themselves 5 games above .500 ATS (Against The Spread) for the season...And even though they've won 7 of their last 10 games SU, they are only 5-5 ATS...costing their backers some vig...Finally, with the way the Lakers & Spurs looked in their opening playoff games...I expect the perception of this team to be even greater than it was prior...and that can only mean a bigger premium will be charged for bettors looking to back them.
5.) MINNESOTA TWINS
We'll stay in the AL Central for another over-valued MLB team...And even though they were neck & neck with the White Sox as my finalists...I figured my followers already know how I feel about the ChiSox, after using them on this list just last week...and fading them on Twitter just last night...Bottom Line, with the Indians & Royals at the top of this division...two teams we aren't used to seeing there of late, the rest of the division will continue to be over-valued...as fans continue to wait for them to climb in the standings...In fact, this Twins team won "94" games in the 2010 MLB Season...making them one of the Top 5 Money Makers throughout...But so far this season, a $100 bettor is down almost 4 dollars, backing them on the money-line...More importantly, the Twins are -22 in Run Differential...so that 6-10 record is actually surprising, since the Mariners are the only team in the AL with a worse ratio...I believe the market will continue to over-value the Twins because it takes a while for bettors to down-grade teams that they are used to seeing at the top...So until the market comes around, we should continue to see them over-valued when it comes to price.
"5" MOST "UNDER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Why not get things started on the under-valued side with a team from our nations capital...In fact, it wasn't long ago that the Washington Wizards proved to be a very profitable under-valued team for us...after making the list weekly, and going on to cover over 60% during that stretch...And being in the NL East, with teams like the Phillies & Braves...I don't expect them to be over-valued any time soon...But this team is only 2 games out of 1st place, has a positive Run-Differential ratio, and has made a $100 bettor over 3 dollars on the money-line to date...They are getting it done with pitching, by ranking Top 10 in ERA & WHIP...and I expect their offense to get into gear as the weather begins to improve in the northeast...This team ended the 2010 season 28 games out of 1st place in the NL East...so bettors aren't in any rush to back them just yet...But that's exactly what we want in our under-valued teams, so that they stay that way and we can turn a profit by backing them...Bottom Line, as long as bettors can't see past the uniform...this Nationals team should continue to offer us some value.
2.) BOSTON CELTICS
The Celtics were one of those teams that we labeled as under-valued going into the NBA Post-Season...The had a losing record ATS at the close of the 2011 Regular Season, and they were metting up with a NY Knicks team that many claimed had nothing to lose...So it was no surprise to hear bookmakers say they needed the Celtics to cover Game 1...and after holding on for a 2pt win, and another ATS loss...I don't expect the perception to change any...In fact, I expect the opposite...as bettors and sports journalists pat themselves on the back for calling it correctly...But not so fast, this team got to a Game 7 of the NBA Finals only a season ago...and has the kind of defense that wins championships...Bottom Line, for such a quality team, it's surprising to me that the market-place under-values them so highly...And because of that, I expect oddsmakers to continue offering up a discount on them to try and attract some balance in action by enticing the Wiseguys to grab the value...With that said, they still have to go out there and get it done by playing up to their potential and their "true rating".
3.) KC ROYALS
How can I not add the Royals to this week's under-valued list...They sit 2 games out of 1st in the AL Central at 10-6...have made a $100 bettor over 6 dollars on the money-line...and have an amazing +15 Run-Differential...So far, they've gotten it done primarily with offense, ranking 7th in Runs Scored...and continue to get very little attention from bettors at the counter...This team has lost 2 straight heading into today, and it seems like most are just waiting for them to crash...But with games against 1st place Cleveland, and then over-valued Texas ahead...I expect them to continue offering up some betting value...Sure we may only be a few weeks in, but who would have thought that as we head into the final stretch in April...that the Royals would have a better record than the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, & Tigers...in the AL...Whether we're still going to be surprised in July is an unknown, but what isn't is the fact that at the moment...they are definitely an under-valued team.
4.) LA ANGELS
Many believed that Texas would run away with the AL West, and at 11-5, one might conclude they have...But not so fast because the Angels find themselves just 1 game behind the AL's 2010 Pennant winner...and are gaining fast, having won 7 of their L/10 games...More importantly, they've played more games on the Road so far than at Home...and are a very respectable 6-4 away...The Angels have done it primarily with great pitching, ranking 3rd in both ERA & WHIP...And even though their offense is only 22nd in Runs Scored, the fact that they are in the Top 10 in BA, OPS, & HR's...tells me it's just a matter of time before they improve on an already win producing +6 Run-Differential ratio...Bottom Line, it's no secret that I bet a Future on the Rangers when they were as high as +1800...but as long as Texas continue to attract the majority of the attention, I believe the Angels are a very good team that will continue to offer plenty of value ahead.
5.) ORLANDO MAGIC
Last but far from least...I still believe that the Magic are an under-valued team at the moment, and will continue to stay that way as long as they survive the post-season...Now granted, I should be pissed at them for giving me my only loss of the Playoffs thus far...but I don't allow my personal feelings or biased opinions to ever sway me when it comes to taking a position...And even after watching them lose Game 1 to Atlanta, I still feel the Magic are an under-valued team in the betting market...Bottom Line, with the Heat & Bulls considered the front runners in the East, followed by the Celtics...the Magic are very much an after-thought to make any noise in the post-season...And after dropping Game 1, the perception of this team is even lower than before...and that will translate to oddsmakers offering up a discount to bettors willing to back them, in an attempt to get balance at the counter...Finally, I stand by my assessment that this team has an excellent point-guard, and probably the best big-man in the league...And with a Top 5 defense, they have the ingredients that it takes to go far in the post-season...Will they do so, remains to be seen...Just like the answer to will they finally start covering...But regardless, I still believe they are an under-valued commodity in the market-place.
So there you have it...my list of over & under valued teams for the week ahead...I urge all handicappers and bettors to create their own list, or even add & subtract teams from this one...
Because there's nothing more important than being able to identify value when betting...And the best way to do this, is by taking the time to isolate those teams that you believe the market is currently over or under valuing...Then try to look ahead and determine the same, in an attempt to get ahead of the market...
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck ahead...Vegas-Runner