"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY JUNE 14th, 2011
VEGAS-RUNNER'S "VALUE TOP 10" LIST...MLB & NHL BETTING MARKETS !!
The NBA Season is officially over and we're a single game away from crowing a Stanley Cup Champion in the NHL. This signals an increase in recreational bettors for the MLB betting market. It happens each and every year so even though betting volume deceases over the summer until football rolls around, the oddsmakers always adjust.
The reason for this is simple...the best way to protect their clients, which are the bookmakers is to factor the bias of bettors into the price. By shading the lines to reflect that bias they are able to increase the books advantage.
The downside to this practice is that the market will ultimately offer more value for sharper bettors. But when unsophisticated bettors money outweighs sharp bettors money, the tradeoff becomes well worth it for books.
Until now, the MLB betting market was much more efficient because the market was saturated with sharp bettors. That forces oddsmakers to place less weight on factors like "perception" and instead focus on true intrinsic value in an attempt to limit exposure brought on by wiseguys.
Now that the only source of action for ALL bettors is MLB, the marketplace is comprised of a much more diverse clientel. Therefore oddsmakers will begin to factor in biases like "Favs & Overs", knowing they reflect the wagers recreational bettors prefer. They'll also put more weight on "perception" since those kind of bettors aren't strictly information and data driven.
Below is this week's version of my "Value Top 10" for MLB and the 2 NHL teams who are now only one win away from capturing a Championship.
TOP "5" MOST "OVER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) BOSTON BRUINS
The tables have turned and the team that began the Stanley Cup Finals as an under-valued team goes into Game 7 with a premium attatched...Oddsmakers have them listed as a much smaller dog for the final game than they did for the entire series even though it's being played on the road...The lop-sided scoring in their wins as compared to their 1-goal losses has fans and bettors now convinced they are the superior team...So oddsmakers are forced to factor that "perception" into the price and based on historical probability for road teams in Game 7's, it's obvious they have.
2.) COLORADO ROCKIES
No MLB team has cost their backers more this season than the Rockies...A $100 bettor is down over $1500 even though they're only 4 games below .500...They are 5-5 over their L/10 games but the average lay price was almost -135...That price converts to a win probability of 57.45% to break even...It's obvious they're being sent out over-priced especially at home where they are 3 games below .500 on the season.
3.) LA ANGELS
They're 3-7 over their L/10 games but are still only 4 games below .500 overall and 4.5 games out of 1st place in the AL West...It appears the perception they created when neck and neck with Texas earlier this season hasn't changed much because bookmakers continue to receive money daily on the Angels...With a -13 Run-Differential and 5 games below .500 at home, this is a costly team to back when favored.
4.) NY YANKEES
With the NBA Season over bookmakers can expect to receive even more one-sided money on the Yanks and be exposed nightly...Even at 8 games above .500 and a .562 win percentage their backers are down on the season...Since the best teams in MLB end up with a final win percentage right around .600, oddsmakers know how to price these "public" teams so that it's almost impossible to profit long-term...The only way to make money backing the Yanks is to really be selective, otherwise fading them will be the sharper move.
5.) FLORIDA MARLINS
It didn't take long for bettors to make the Marlins the "sexy" pick and force oddsmakers to attatch a premium after offering them at a discount earlier in the season...They are only 1-game below .500 but are currently in a downwards swing having lost 9 of 10 games...With the highest "Negative" Run-Differential in the NL East at -16 and a 15-22 home record, this is one team you don't want to back when favored...especially at home.
TOP "5" MOST "UNDER-VALUED" TEAMS in the BETTING MARKET :
1.) VANCOUVER CANUCKS
They were more than a 2-1 favorite to win the Stanley Cup Finals at the start but after 3 blow-out losses on the road, coupled with 3 razor-thin wins at home...the Canucks stock has dropped dramatically...The "perception" has changed and that makes them the discounted team even as -150 favs at home in Game 7...In any market an investor should look to buy a quality company, item, or team as in this case when it's being offered at it's lowest price and sell when it's at it's highest...Bottom line, Vancouver's price is now at it's lowest.
2.) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
No team in MLB has rewarded their backers as much as the DBacks have this season...They've produced a profit of over a dime for a $100 bettor and even after an amazing win streak, bettors just don't trust this team yet according to bookmakers...I don't know why since they have a +23 Run-Differential which is highest in their division and are currently 7 games above .500...They are 20-13 at home which reflects a break-even money-line of -150 and 17-17 on the road...If you can get this team as a dog on the road and a small favorite or better at home, it appears you'd be getting the best of it.
3.) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
I stated before that if this team can hover around .500 they'd be a huge money maker for their backers...They're currently 1 game below .500 and as advertised only the DBacks have produced more profit in the entire NL...Bettors have gotten accustomed to fading this team with good reason in years past and that means oddsmakers will continue to offer them up at a discount...At the prices they're being offered, they won't have to do much better than they've been doing to remain profitable.
4.) SEATTLE MARINERS
Only 2 games behind the Rangers in their division but not a team anyone is talking about...The lack of attention has made them an after-thought for bettors even though no other team in the AL West or AL East has produced more profit for their backers...They're a team that has cost supporters a ton in past seasons and provided profit for their faders...And that's the main reason the market will not catch up for a while, if at all.
5.) SF GIANTS
The Brewers came close to being in the 5 slot this week but the Giants have a much better road record making them a better wager...I've said it before that it's extremely rare to have a defending Champion in any sport under-valued, but the numbers support it and we know that numbers don't lie...SF is now 8 games above .500 and currently in 1st place in the NL West but have been priced low enough to be the 3rd most profitable team in the NL...Few give them credit for that Cinderella performance in 2010 and the market is slow to react to how good this team truly is.
Thanks again for all your support and best of luck ahead...Vegas-Runner.