"MORNING MOVES" NEWSLETTER for TUESDAY JULY 5th,
Vegas-Runner's "VALUE TOP 10" List...Plus "MARKET METER"....for MLB Betting Market !!
Interleague action took center stage for the past few weeks and even though
fans seem to enjoy it, their fondness doesn't carry over to the betting window.
In fact, betting volume was low when compared to the regular schedule where
teams play within their division.
As far as the betting market is concerned, "perception" is tougher to guage
on match-ups that don't include marquee teams. But now that things get back to
normal and MLB has a monopoly on the betting market until football gets here,
let's determine which teams are over and under valued as we approach the
Before we do I wanted to state that historically, recreational bettors tend
to excuse the results from Interleague play. Therefore, we have to make sure we
take that into consideration when labeling these teams. Meaning, the stock price
won't reflect the results from the past 2 weeks expect in the most extreme
Finally, I'm going to be adding a new factor to the list starting this
week..."The Market Meter" will guage the percentage of public money in the
market. For example, during football season a Monday Night Football match-up's
action may be comprised of 90% public money when compared to wiseguy money. On
the flip side, bets made on the total for a CFB game between Western Michigan and Eastern Michgan may be 90% in favor of
TOP "5" OVER-VALUED TEAMS in MLB :
1.) TEXAS RANGERS
They may be in 1st place in the AL West and show a positive run
differential, but oddsmakers place the kind of premium on Texas that makes it difficult to turn a profit backing
them...Even though they're only 20-23 on the Road, the betting market had them
favored in their last 7 road games.
2.) CINCINNATI REDS
Currenly .500 on the season and only 3 games out of 1st place in the NL
Central...but enough of a premium's being added by oddsmakers has a $100 bettor
down over a nickel...They've scored the most runs in the NL to date and we know
public bettors prefer offense so they'll continue to attract support at the
window, meaning oddsmakers will continue to over price them.
3.) DETROIT TIGERS
Only 1.5 games out of 1st place in the AL Central and 4 games above .500
this season...but they haven't turned a profit for supporters overall...Tigers
have a negative run differential and are 18-22 on the Road...They've won 59% of
home games but oddsmakers continue to add a premium since they get public money
almost every night.
4.) COLORADO ROCKIES
Only the Astros have cost their supporters
more than the Rockies as a $100 bettor is already down over $1500 this
season...Only a .500 team at home but oddsmakers sent them out as the favorite
in 14 of their last 16 games there...Perception reflects a much stronger home
field advantage than they actually have and as long as bettors continue to back
them at Coors...oddsmakers will continue to over price them.
5.) LA DODGERS
Maybe it's because they're a big market team or maybe it's because they
have a huge fan base...regardless the reason, they're 11 games out of 1st in the
NL West but continue to attract public money at the betting window...With a -36
run differential and a losing record at home and on the road, they should only
be looked at when offered as dogs.
TOP "5" UNDER-VALUED TEAMS in MLB :
1.) CLEVELAND INDIANS
They win 64% of Home games and are in 1st place in the AL Central but the
perception seems to reflect a lack of confidence by bettors...The market has
made them the dog at home against the NYY in back to back games, even though win
percentage at home converts to a money-line of -178 there...As long as bettors
continue to stay away, a quality team like this will continue to produce profit
for backers since they're being offered at such a big discount by
2.) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
They are the MOST profitable team in all of baseball on the money-line at
only 3 games above .500...Now that they're only 1.5 games out of 1st place in
the NL Central, I expect them to continue to play with motivation...Since
bettors are conditioned to fade them yearly, the market will continue to under
value them...Rather than backing them, the public instead is waiting for them to
regress...With a positive run differential and a winning record on the Road,
they may have to wait a long time.
3.) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Along with the Pirates, they'll continue to remain under-valued and offered
at a discount because bettors have always looked to fade them rather than back
them...Only the Phils have produced more profit in the NL East even though the
Nats are 11 games behind...They're at .500 on the season and will continue to
produce profit as long as they're able to hover there.
4.) NY METS
They're 10.5 games out of 1st in the NL East but they've got a winning
record overall and on the road...Overlooked in a division that includes the
Phils and Braves, oddsmakers continue to offer them up at a discount...A $100
bettor is up over a nickel but since they haven't produced a profit for backers
since 2006, not many are in a rush to back them in 2011.
5.) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
They've been hot & cold throughout the season and currently sit only 2
games out of 1st place in the NL West...A $100 bettors is up almost a dime backing them
and they have a winning record at Home and on the Road...They have a positive
run differential and an offense that keeps them in games but don't get much
support at the betting window from bettors.
MARKET METER : 70% WISEGUY
MONEY / 30% PUBLIC MONEY
The 4th of July weekend just came to a close and it'll take a couple of
days for people to recover and get back to their normal routines. Because of
that, books expect volume to be low and the majority of recreational money to
come in the form of parlays. Betting syndicates and professional bettors work
year round and in the week ahead, I expect the majority of money wagered to come