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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

"5" TRUE STEAM BETS for NCAAFB Week 7 & NFL Week 6 !!

We are now over 1/4 of the way through the Football Season, and this is when the Wiseguys usually kick it into gear...They now have more than enough data to really sharpen their Power Ratings, but the Oddsmakers also have plenty to work with as well. This is why we will begin to see less and less "TRUE STEAM" in those initial 24hrs after the sportsbooks release the odds for the following week's games...

The reason for this is that the Power Ratings of BOTH, the Oddsmakers & the Wiseguys will definitely begin to resemble each others more and more...and therefore, we will begin seeing more "Moves" after these Betting Syndicates have had time to work on the individual match-ups...Because as I've said in the past, those initial "Steam Moves" are based almost entirely on the fact that the Betting Syndicates numbers differ from what the Oddsmakers sent out...and ultimately, what the books offer...

With that said, the Wiseguys will continue to have the advantage...because the "Betting Line" offered by the books, must take into account for "Public Perception"...and is also set to try and encourage more 2-way action from the bettors...To do this, sometimes they have to adjust a number...even though they know it may not truely reflect what their "Power Ratings" dictate...And this is why, although the Oddsmakers & Bookmakers always have to take into account what the Syndicates may be looking for...many times, they are forced to allow them to get the best of it...Which is why they continue to beat the books year in and year out...

Finally, as we move forward...I will attempt to pass along those "Steam Moves" which my own numbers support the most...Because although we've used the last few Blogs to focus on the bigger moves from these Outfits...along with those that allow me to best explain some of the reasoning that goes into these bets...I also believe that we should try to peg down some winners as well...So with that, let's move on to some of the upcoming week's "TRUE STEAM"...

 

NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for Week of 10-17-09 :

1.) NORTHEWESTERN opened +13.5....Now +12

This is one of those games that the books really have a hard time putting a line up for...and are always holding their breaths when they do, to see just how wrong they may be...and how much it will cost them...Because when there is an injury to a "Key Player", the books have no clue how the Wiseguys will approach it...And in this case, with MSU QB Kirk Cousins (Probable) not 100%, the sportsbooks didn't offer a line until early this morning...And when they did, the Outfits let them know immediately that they opened it too high...The Syndicates took +13.5 right away, which scared many books into moving it an entire 1.5 pts right away, like Pinny did...While others who chose to drop it a 1/2 Pt at a time like CRIS, were bet into, again at +13...Since then, we are looking at 12 or 12.5 all across the board...My Line Prediction : Word is Cousins will be ok to play, but I also hear that they Wiseguys may not be done...So I expect this line to dip down even a bit lower, before being pushed up some on game-day by the Public, who is expected to come in on MSU...VR

2.) WISCONSIN opened PK....Now -2

This is another perfect example of why you have to have solid sources if you are attempting to make money following "Steam"...Because when CRIS opened up IOWA at Pk, the Wiseguys immediately tossed some money down on IOWA...That forced books like Pinny who opened a bit later, to actually make IOWA -1...and we saw CRIS move to -1.5...And until this morning, you would have been made to believe that the Syndicates were backing IOWA...But then, like they've done so many times before...they threw a curve-ball at the books, by sending out all kind of "Buy Orders" on WISC...They ended up buying all the +1.5, +1, & PK that they could find...And because the books initially thought that the Outfits were on the other side...they were slow to react, and these Syndicates got plenty of money down on WISC...Which was the plan from the start...My take is that they will now have the benefit of being able to get BOTH sides as DOGS...Which I've explained many times before, as something they love to do...But with that said, I can also tell you that their "TRUE POSITION" when all the dust settles will ultimately be on WISC...My Line Prediction : We will see a small "Middle" attempt later in the week, or even sooner if they come to the conclusion that the Public will take IOWA...This line move will make it hard to know what the Outfits are truely on...which has always been their goal...But you can be sure that they will be cheering in WISC on Saturday...VR

3.) PENN ST opened -14.5....Now -16.5/-17

This is a very significant move and I'll explain why...The sportsbooks are expecting MIN action from what I've been told...So when they got the send-out from the Oddsmakers, I expected them to offer it lower than it should actually be...which they did...But I also give them credit for opening it up over 2 TD's at -14.5...as a way of possibly keeping the Wiseguys away...But within the 1st hour of offering the line to the bettors, they found out that the Outfits still felt there was plenty of value in backing PSU...Those books who opened right after CRIS, put it out at -15...and that's when the Wiseguys tipped their hand, and began buying up all the PSU they could find...They bet them at -14.5, -15, -15.5, & -16...Which forced books here in Vegas, who open up on Monday's for the following week's football action, to put the line up at -17...And that's where it's at now, while some books fearing the "Middle" attempt, chose to leave it at -16.5...Line Prediction : With the public expected to be on MIN Saturday, I don't think the Outfits will get a chance at a "Middle" unless they are the one's who force the books to go higher...Which I don't see happening, since they already got plenty down...This means we should see the books try to keep it below 17, and hope the pubic helps them balance and limit their liability on the game...VR

 4.) OKLAHOMA ST opened -6.5....Now -7/-7.5

Here is one of those moves that many overlook because it's only a 1/2pt or 1pt move...figuring, how significant can it truely be ?? Well, it all depends on the "number" that is being moved, much more than how much it moves...For example, there are no 2 numbers that the sportsbooks try to be on the right side of more than..."3 & 7"...Because those are the 2 margins that most games end by, so when the books decide to move "on or off" those "key numbers"...we have to take notice...And this is no exception, especially since the books expect the betting public to come in on the Dog, MIZZOU...And these moves are extremely telling because rather than elect to allow the betting public to possibly come in and lower the line, ultimately allowing the Syndicates to lay less...they chose to lay the points now...And that's what they did with OK St. this morning, since there was no line offered on the game last night...The Wiseguys went ahead and bet -6.5 and even some -7...This forced many books to move to -7.5, which is where they opened it here in Vegas a little later this morning...to avoid getting "Steamed" as well...Line Prediction : With the public expected to grab the points, we should see this line settle at 7...with the vig jumping around from side to side...And because of that, many who try to pick off "Steam" would have trouble doing so because it will ultimately look like only a 1/2 pt move...But with that said, if you see this get to 8 by game-day...then you can be sure that the Wiseguys have decided to unload again...Making this an extremely "Strong Move"...VR

5.)  NC STATE opened +4...Now +2.5

This is definitely a bet that the Wiseguys couldn't wait to unload on...because they wasted absolutely no time at all getting down as much money as they could on NC State, before the books adjusted drastically...Once again the Outfits forced the books to adjust through a "key number"...something that takes plenty of money to do, and something they don't like doing...But in this case, according to the Wiseguys...the number was just wrong...And when CRIS opened it at 4, the Outfits didn't fear tipping their hand to the other books...which tells me that they had plans to take a lot less than +4 and be happy with it...So when the other offshore books finally opened for next week's business, and put the line at 3, thinking they were safe...Once again the Wiseguys showed them by sending out another "Buy Order", that the line was still too high...And the Syndicates took NC St at +3 also...forcing the adjustment down to 2.5...That is where the books here in Vegas opened this game, and by doing so, were able to avoid getting "Steamed" as well...Line Prediction : This sets up a perfect middle opportunity, but to do so, I believe that it will have to come early in the week...Because the betting public is expected to bet B COLL on Saturday, which would probably move it back to 3, eliminating that perfect middle...So we may see the Wiseguys be the reason for this to get back up to 3, well before the weekend gets here, and the public begins betting it...VR

 

NFL "TRUE STEAM" for Week of 10-18-09 :

1.) UNDER PHI/OAK 41.5....Now 40.5

Once again we have a move which isn't that big...but a closer look at the number/s involved tells us bettors that it actually is...Because just as there are "key numbers" for "Sides"...there are also "key numbers" for "Totals"...and "41" is one of them...So when an adjustment is made that goes through this "key total", we have to pay attention...And I feel that this is a big move because the books believe they will get plenty of OVER money from the betting public on Sunday...And since this game is played in Oak, not Philly...we can be pretty sure that the Wiseguys didn't make it in expectation of poor weather...And for them not to wait and allow the bettors to drive this Total up to "42" or even higher...which would truely add even more value to their bet...it tells us that we can also be sure that the Total they made for this game is much lower than what the oddsmakers thought it should be...So as soon as the off-shore books put up this Total for next week's game, the Outfits went to work betting the UNDER...And they were able to hit ALL of the offshore books who simultaneously, opened the Total at 41.5...Because it was around the "key total" of 41, the books were cautious and moved the line a 1/2 pt at a time...And all that did was allow the Wiseguys to get even more money down on the UNDER...Until they finally adjusted down to 40.5, where we've seen Vegas open this number here this morning...Line Prediction : If we see this get below 40, then you can be sure that the Wiseguys absolutely love this bet...But I don't think that will happen because as I said, the books are expecting plenty of Over money from the public on Sunday...Which is why we will probably see this go off at 41...Which once again, would hide the fact of just how big of a "Steam Play" that this truely is...VR

 

In closing, I just wanted to add that for this week's "TRUE STEAM"...I really took the time to choose those plays that most reflected my own "Ratings"...And although I haven't had time to handicapp the individual match-ups just yet, all 5 of these plays show that they offer value according to my own lines for the upcoming week's games...

Because as I said at the top, and a few times this week in my "Forum Posts" and "Daily Message"...I think that along with being able to educate people on how these Outfits work, and what "True Steam" really is...I want to also try and choose those plays that I agree with most...And maybe we should begin keeping a record from this week on, to see how they are doing...Just keep in mind that BOTH, the Wiseguys and myself are betting plenty of other things as well...and as the week progresses, and more work is done...sometimes there are developments to the contrary...But regardless, I thought it was best to also try and pass along those plays that as of right now, look like WINNERS...

Thanks again for all your support and best of luck, Vegas-Runner...

 

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