Along with all the great NFL & NCAAFB Match-Ups...as well as some interesting series in MLB, this weekend offers plenty of action for fight fans...And since all of my attention come Saturday & Sunday needs to be on football, I'll go ahead and pass along some OPINIONS as well as my TOP 2* BET FREE for this weekends fights...
Let's get the Boxing out of the way first, since we are not making any Official Bets...MARQUEZ vs MAYWEATHER
In Marquez vs Mayweather...the books have installed Floyd as an overwhelming -350 Favorite...And as much as I would love to grab the +275 take-back on Marquez, and may very well do so as a courtesy bet for my locals...I just can't ask you to go ahead and back Marquez with your money, because the only time I'll go ahead and ask that of you...is when I'm stepping up and backing my own opion with REAL cash...
Bottom Line here is that once again, Mayweather's handlers have opted to go the same route they have since 2000...Making sure Floyd fights a "Big-Name", who is at the end of their careers and have the odds stacked against them...For example, although Marquez has those qualities as a fighter which give "Money Mayweather" problems...such as excellent combo's, rather than one-shot at a time... goes to the body, which is always easier to hit on Floyd than his head...has a great jab which has caused Floyd problems in the past...and finally, is an extremely smart fighter who is very capable of implementing and adapting to conditions and game-plans as the fight dictates...
Marquez has also been the much busier fighter, as Floyd has been out of the ring for almost 2 years...And as we've seen countless times from Marquez, he is almost NEVER dominated in any of his fights...
On the other hand...Floyd has the longer arms which will help keep Marquez away, he always keeps his composure in a fight regardless of how it's going...which makes him one of the smartest fighters in the game...And finally, Floyd is probably the best defensive fighter of our generation...And knows how to avoid getting into trouble by forcing his opponents into his kind of fight...
Now we all know that fighters have gone up in weight in the past and have had success...The latest example being Pacquiao going up to face what was supposed to be a much bigger Oscar DeLa Hoya...But I have to tell you, in this case...although Marquez has seemed to put on a lot of muscle weight, Floyd will have a huge physical advantage and is ultimately the bigger man...This is why Marquez was chosen in the first place...And it's that physical edge that I am having trouble getting over...And we can't forget, that although Marquez has been extremely competative in all his fights...when going up against a much quicker "boxer", he has not been able to come through on the score-cards...
More importantly, Marquez is at the tail end of his career...and I only wish they would have made this fight even just a few years ago, and a couple of wars earlier for Marquez...Because he is by far one of, if not the most complete fighter that Floyd has faced to date...And true boxing fans have been treated to some of the best fights in the ast 10 yrs thanks to Marquez...But once again, Floyd has gone ahead and chosen to make the fight at a time where he just has such a huge advantage...
In my heart, I'll be rooting for Marquez...and hope that he is able to make a great fight out of it...But with that said, as a Professional Sports Bettor, I just can't advise anyone to Bet against Mayweather in this one, unless you just want action...In which case, Marquez is definitely the way to go...
Many believe he bit off more than he can chew, and Oscar DeLa Hoya says that Marquez has all the tools neccessary to get by Mayweather...Well, I truely do hope that he is right and that we see a Marquez who reminds us of the same fighter who went up against Manny on two seperate occassions, that many believe he won...So, I'll go ahead and watch this fight cheering in Marquez...but when the final bell sounds, if he's still standing...I expect Floyd to walk away with another decision after playing it safe throughout the fight...Let's just hope that if this is the case, that his handlers allow him to go ahead and get in the ring with Manny, which is by far the one fight all boxing fans want to see...VR
UFC 103 : TOP PLAY+ OPINIONS
Let's go ahead and get right to the ONLY bet that I am making for Saturday's Card...Because even though I broke the card down like I do for each event, the bottom line was that I just couldn't Confirm any other Opinions...And although I may go ahead and toss a couple of dollars on a few of those opinions to make it more entertaining...I make my living from making wagers when I believe I actually have an EDGE, which is much different from having an Opinion...
1.) JUNIOR DOS SANTOS -135 over Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic....(2*)
True MMA fans have enjoyed watching Cro-Cop beat the best fighters in the world for years...Unfortunately for him, those great years were while he was still fighting over-seas for Pride and before that as a K1 Kick-Boxer...And since coming to the UFC, new MMA Fans can't understand what all the fuss was about...Because saying he's been a disappointment for Dana White is a huge understatement...
Cro-Cop has 34 Pro Fights...and is 25-6-2 w/ 1 No Contest...Unfortunately, 2 of his L/3 have been loses which many felt he was the Favorite to win...And although he won his last fight against Al Turk in June, that was by far the easiest of the 3...And more or less a "gimme" to get him only his 2nd UFC win...
The problem is the Mirko is 35, and just like other fighters who use their stand-up to win fights...as their speed goes, so does their advantage...Nothing proves this case more than the fact Cro-Cop has not been able to use that High-Left-Leg kick he has made famous, since arriving at the UFC...And I truely believe that Cro-Cop is at the very end of his MMA career...In fact, his actual job is being in the Croatian Parliament (like the US Senate)...so being a champ is no longer his main goal in life...And as an MMA fighter, any distraction away from the octagon or even a lack of passion, has proven to be a recipe for disaster...
On the flip side, Junior Dos Santos is only 25 yrs old and in the prime of his career...He has disposed of 2 very quality opponents in devastating fashion, both in the 1st Round...And unfortunately for Cro-Cop, Junior has incredible speed, accurate stand-up, and even a purple belt in jui-jitsu for when his fights hit the mat...This kid is for real and living here in Vegas, where many Brazilian fighters now reside...I can tell you that word is his striking skills are world class...Something that you definitely need when facing a striker like Mirko...
The key to success for Dos Santos will be getting in close to Cro-Cop, and not allowing the "south-paw" to keep him away and at a distance...Because that's when Mirko is at his best, by picking fighters apart and slowly breaking them down before landing the big kick to close out the show...But at this age, and against this opponent...that is just asking to much, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this one ended in a KO for Dos Santos...VR
OPINIONS : Unlike Boxing, I just won't lay those high prices that many MMA fights hang up there...Because unlike boxing, there is just so many ways that you can lose in the octagon, even if you truely are the better fighter...And when you only have 3 Rounds in most cases, it just don't allow for many of the advantages that a 10-12 round boxing match does...So even though I would go ahead and lay some very big chalk in Boxing, I would really have to have some strong Confirmations and Information to do so in MMA...
1.) COLE MILLER +125 over Efrain Escudero...Although I am a big fan of Efrain since his debut in TUF, Cole Miller just continues to find ways to win...He came through for us as a Best Bet in his last fight, and his experience is an advantage here again...
2.) RAFAEL DOS ANJOS -125 over Rob Emerson...Ju-Jitsu ve Kick-Boxing...and since Emerson has shown to have trouble against those kind of fighters, as we saw vs Peligrino...I have to give the nod to Dos Anjos in this fight...
3.) TYSON GRIFFIN -285 vs Hermes Franca...The Price was the turn off here, but Griffin should just be too much for the Brazilian Ju-Jitsu artist from American Top team...Not only is Franca trying to come back from a torn ACL...but we've seen Griffin have his way with Ju-Jistu fighters in the past...
4.) TOMAZS DRWAL +100 over Drew McFedries...For starters, we can all agree that regardless who wins...this one ends in a KO because Both of these guys love to bang...Drwal is the bigger man, having fought mostly at a higher weight-class...He has vast experience for being only 27...And finally, since training with Dean Lister...we've seen him improve in each of his fights...
5.) VITOR BELFORT +125 over Rick Franklin...The PHENOM is back, and the question is...will he be as explosive as he once was, and will he still have that speed he is known for...All reports say YES, and the only question and reason this isn't an official bet is because I need to see if his stamina is there...Because we all know that Franklin always comes to fight in "Dog Shape"...and his game-plan is going to be to try and get this to the later rounds...Fortunately for Vitor, it's a 3 Round fight...Also, let's not forget Franklin is soon to be 35 and this fight is at the catch-weight of "195 lbs"...As long as Vitor stays patient and don't run into something by being over anxious in his return...I truely feel that the wrong fighter may actually be favored here...
That's my break-down for this weekends fights...and we can't forget there is a great Under-Card for the first time in a long time in Boxing...But again, the prices of Both...CHRIS JOHN, and one of my favorites, MIKE KATSIDIS...are just too high to look to get involved...So instead, I'll just enjoy a great card...
Finally, although I do have a lot of opinions since I put in the work...the bottom line is that as a Professional Bettor, you need to be able to seperate entertainment, from opportunity...And the toughest thing is trying to narrow it down and determine exactly where the true value lies, while also backing the side which should get the money...Putting those 2 things together is what ultimately produces profits...
And for this weekend, after breaking down Both fight cards...I was able to find one match-up, where I believe those 2 key components are present...
I'd like to thank you all for your continued support, and wish you all the best of luck...Enjoy the Fights this Weekend...Vegas-Runner