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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

TRUE STEAM: CFB & NFL (Oct 24/25)..."4-2" L/WEEK !!

We had some success last week with the "TRUE STEAM", going "4-2" Overall...It was the 1st week that I decided to add my own handicapp to the mix, by choosing those "Early Moves" that the Wiseguys made which offer the biggest edge based on my own "Lines"...And then trying to narrow them down to the 5 that I like the most...I only ask that you keep in mind that I have not had the time to really disect each individual match-up...and just like the Wiseguys, these selections are based on "Numbers" alone...

Remember, as the season progresses there are less and less "Big Early Moves"...Because the "Power Ratings" of Both, the Wiseguys and Oddsmakers tend to resemble each others more and more...as they both collect more data...

With that said, since the Oddsmakers have to weigh in "Public Perception"...especially in football where the Public money far outweighs the Wiseguy money...And on the "Marquee Match-Ups", many times it isn't even close...And ultimately, that is where the Wiseguys gain the advantage...and will always have the advantage...

No better proof than the fact the sportsbooks now move their lines on "Air"...Without even booking a single penny...And there's also no better proof than the knowing the books take a smaller limit on the "Opening Lines" in those initial 24hrs after accepting bets for the following week's games...I mean let's tell it like it is...they have a 5 cent edge on EVERY dollar that's bet, so if they had any confidence in these lines...they would be welcoming the money...not refusing it...

So let's go ahead and see if we can pick out some winning "TRUE STEAM" for the week ahead...

 

NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for 10-24-09 :

1.) CLEMSON opened +7....Now +5

CRIS went ahead and opened the line at Miami -7 for this match-up...and within 3 minutes after opening, the Wiseguys went ahead and grabbed +7 on Clemson...forcing the drop to 6.5...That's where the Greek opened the number, but plenty of shops went ahead and opened Miami at -7...because they do expect to get plenty of "Public Money" bet on Miami this Saturday...In those first 24hrs, we did see a couple of Outfits grab +7 throughout the day, but books weren't making too big of an adjustment and by the end of the night...Miami was -6.5 across the board...In fact, many of the Vegas Books who refused to put out an NCAAFB Line until late Monday...went ahead and brought it out at 7, thinking that the Wiseguys may not be looking for anymore...But that was where they were wrong, and the Wiseguys began STEAMING Clemson +6.5 all over the place...The books quickly moved to 6 and that's where it was across the board at the close of Monday...Then this morning, on Tuesday, after having some more time to work on the match-up...the Outfits sent out yet another "Buy Order" at +6...Sending the books scrambling once again to move adjust, and right now we are looking at +5...and we even see a low of 4.5 at the Hilton...This sequence of events really tells us just how much the Wiseguys like Clemson this week...They could have very easily allowed the betting public to move the line up for them, possibly above the "Key Number" of 7...But it appears that their Ratings showed such a discrepency, that none of the Outfits wanted to be the ones left out...And as soon as the first group grabbed the points...the rest joined in as well...Line Prediction : There is no reason why the books won't go to 4.5 or even 4 if they see some "Steam Followers" try to bet Clemson also...But I really can't see it dipping any lower because the "Public" is expected to come in heavy with Miami money, which may even push it up a point...The Wiseguys were able to get down plenty of money by waiting until all the outs provided a line before they really started buying up Clemson...VR

2.) MIAMI OHIO opened +13....Now +11/+10.5

CRIS was the first to offer a line on this match-up, and within 4 minutes of opening it at N ILL -13...the Wiseguys let them know that it was too high...CRISimmediately went to 12.5, 12, then 11.5 within the initial 25 minutes after opening...So when the rest of the off-shore books were ready to start accepting wagers on next week's games...they knew what the Outfits had done, and opened their line at N ILL -11.5...That's where it was across the board on Monday, until the Wiseguys decided that it was still too high...and sent out another "Buy Order" at +11.5...Most books instantly went to -10.5 on N ILL, while those who only dropped it a 1/2 point...got hit at +11 by a few groups who wanted more on MIA OH...We've since seen a low of 10, and a high of 11 across the board...with the Vegas Books being the one's who want NO "Wiseguy Money" at all...using 10...The offshore books, have decided that the Wiseguys have taken what they wanted...and now in anticipation of "Public Money" on N ILL come Saturday...the books seem to want to keep this line at or above 10.5...Line Prediction : It does appear that the Outfits were able to get down what they had hoped on Miami O...and at the number they wanted...Because they haven't reprimanded those books who are now at -11...This is why I believe we won't see this line drop any more, and just the opposite...those who want to bet Miami O, may be better off by waiting,because as I stated above...the Sportsbooks are expecting the Public to bet N ILL on the weekend, which may force a slight adjustment upwards again...VR

3.) BAYLOR opened +10....Now +9.5

This is one of those "TRUE STEAM" bets that are difficult to uncover if you don't have a solid source when it comes to what the Outfits are doing...Because it's very easy to overlook a 1/2 point movement, or not take it very seriously...And in this case, that would be a huge error because I can CONFIRM that the Wiseguys love Baylor getting double-digits...CRIS opened this line at OK ST -10 on Saturday, and when they didn't receive any Wiseguy money...most of the books felt safe to go ahead and also open the game up at -10, while some even went on to open it at 10.5...The reason for this is obvious, the books are expecting the Public to really show support for Oklahoma St come Saturday...So why give them a good number...And that's where it stood even as Monday came to a close...Then this morning, the Outfits threw a wrench into the books plans...by sending out a "Buy Order" on BAYLOR +10...And they went on to buy up all the +10 they could find...Which has since forced the adjustment to 9.5, and ultimately forced the Wiseguys to stop betting...So it's now obvious to us, that these Outfits believe that getting Baylor at +10 or better is the right side in this game...And I also believe that they've realized that they could now sit back and allow the betting public to possibly move this line back up for them as we approach game-day...Because from what I've heard, they are far from done with getting involved in this match-up...Line Prediction : The books should begin to slowly creep back up to 10 as the week progresses...And as the Public begins betting Ok St and adding them to all kind of Teasers, we should see this line move back up some...That's when I believe that the Outfits will get involved again...And although we may see some +10's or even better early, as we approach game-time, that line should drop as low as +9...I would recommend that anyone looking to follow the Wiseguys here, to grab +10 when they find it because that's the number that they liked, and it should end up being the best you could find...VR

4.) NEVADA opened -13....Now -15.5

This is an extremely significant move, not just because it's over 2pts...but because it's crossed over "14"...Which may not be that "Key" of a number...but to bettors, you are now looking at an extra score to cover...And this really entices those who may be looking to bet dogs...More importantly, this move is significant because the Wiseguys didn't bet it when the line initially was offered on Sunday evening..Instead it wasn't until early on Tuesday, that they got involved and took a position...And "get involved" is exactly what they did...Because they began laying -13, -13.5, & -14...And the books just kept on moving it 1/2 pt at a time, which allowed the Outfits to take a pretty substantial position...This all took place within a "20 min" time frame, which is always difficult for the bookmakers because they just aren't sure when the Outfits will cease betting...And when the dust finally settled, the books had all moved to -15 or higher...which is where this game now stands...This is also one of those spots that we can be sure had more "handicapping" behind it, because it was made almost 2 days after the game was first offered...So it wasn't simply based on a disagreement of the line...And with the books having no problem taking it up over 2 TD's, we can also be pretty sure that they don't want anymore Nevada money...Line Prediction : According to the books, they are expecting split action on this game from the betting public...But now that it's over 2 TD's, they should see more Idaho money on Saturday...I don't see this coming back below 14, unless the Outfits try and work a "Middle"...But I do not think that will be the case, since the public isn't expected to help them push this number up higher...Therefore, I see this line sitting at 15 for most of the week...VR

5.) MICHIGAN ST opened +1.5....Now PK/-1

This is another "STEAM" bet that would be extremely difficult to uncover without getting Confirmation of what the Outfits are doing...Because we actually saw a "Double Move" on this match-up...And it wasn't until just this morning, that the Wiseguys decided to reveal their "True Position"...When CRIS first opened this line on Sunday evening at IOWA -1.5, the initial move made by the Outfits had the books thinking that they would be backing Iowa...And after a couple of smaller wagers on Iowa, the books were quick to adjust their lines and inflate the number all the way to Iowa -2.5...The reason for this was simple...the books feel that they will be 1-sided on this game for sure...Because they believe that the betting public will be taking Iowa on Saturday...and that would put the books at a huge risk, being 1-sided by BOTH...the Public & the Wiseguys...That is never a position that any book wants to be in...I was surprised that the Outfits didn't wait it out until the weekend, and possibly get +3 on MSU after the public starts getting involved on Iowa...But once again, it's one of those spots where nobody wanted to miss the party...And the Wiseguys felt that MSU +2.5 offered them so much value, that when 1 group stepped out and grabbed it...the rest couldn't get to their computers, phones, or in line...fast enough to bet MSU...They took +2.5...they took +2...then +1.5 & +1...Until the books either made the game a PK or MSU -1...Now don't forget, as I have explained countless times...for some reason or other, the Wiseguys just love to get "+ Points" on BOTH teams in the same game...And they may get an opportunity to do that early, before the Public begins betting Iowa and an adjustment is once again made...Line Prediction : As I just said, they love getting Both teams at a dog price...and this is the only reason that I could see Iowa going back to Favorite...Because even though the Public is expected to bet Iowa hard, the sportsbooks know that as a dog, the Outfits love MSU...This once again puts them in a tough spot, which they may remedy by simply making the game go off at a PK...VR

 

NFL "TRUE STEAM" for 10-25-09 :

1.) DOLPHINS opened +7...Now +6

Well, who didn't see this one coming ??? This has been a classic move made by the Wiseguys since I was first introduced to "Steam"...They love when a team is either extremely "Over-Valued" or "Under-Valued" by the betting public...And in this case, the Outfits believe that the books are now going to make the bettors pay a premium to bet the Saints...Because if they weren't a "public team" before with all that offense...they are definitely one now, after beating the NYG...So I was really waiting to see when the Outfits would begin looking to "fade" the Saints...And after they cashed with them a few times already this year, including last week vs NYG...this is the week they finally did so...The Wiseguys wasted no time at all showing their hand, and when CRIS opened NO -7...they immediately took MIA +7...This move prompted those books opening a bit later, to go ahead and make the line NO -6.5...And it seemed like it was enough to back the Wiseguys off...But then on Monday, the Outfits went on to BUY up all the +6.5 on MIA that was out there...Which is why we are now seeing this game at -6 across the board...Here is another spot where I think the Outfits could have waited because the books are expecting heavy public money on the Saints come Sunday...Which may have allowed the Wiseguys to get an even better number, or at the very least a lower vig...But as we've seen, when the don't do that...many times, these have shown to be their strongest positions...And what we saw here was another example of nobody wanting to be left out...Line Prediction : I don't think that the Outfits will "Buy" anymore MIA at +6...and as the betting public begins betting the NFL match-ups for next Sunday, I believe the Saints will be one of the heavier bet teams...Which should allow the books to raise the line back to at least 6.5...I really don't think they would want to go back to 7, regardless of how hard the public hits the game...because they would once again tempt the Outfits to get involved, something that I don't think they'll want to do...So if you like the Saints, I would go ahead and lay the -6...But if you are going to follow the Wiseguys on this one, you shouldn't lose out at all by waiting until game-day to ultimately get the best line on the Dog...VR

 

Those are the PICK "6" for this week's "TRUE STEAM"...And I believe that we are far enough along in the season, that it is more beneficial to wait until Tuesday to write this Blog...Because we are starting to see the Wiseguys wait for more and more books to offer a line and to begin taking normal limits, before they really look to unload...

I went ahead and chose those "EARLY MOVES" that I also felt offered the most value...based simply on the "Line"...And please keep in mind, that after I compare my own lines to what the books are offering...I then make sure to thoroughly capp the game to try and uncover why there may be a difference, or who may be mistaken...And finally, I try to Confirm that lean...and make it an "Official Position"...

But with that said, along with trying to educate more bettors about "Steam"...and the reasoning behind what many of these Outfits do, I also want to try and pass along those moves that I agree with most...And I hope that along with some good Info, I can also pass along some Winners...

Thanks again for all your support...Please feel free to add your own insights, opinions, comments, questions, ect...Because I believe that between now and this weekends games, we can all help each other find some winners and learn a little more about this racket...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner...

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