Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs

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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    06/08/2017 10:19 AM

The RUN-LINE in Baseball...When Is It a Good Bet ??...

The truth is, prior to moving to Vegas, I had no clue about the Run-Line, in fact the only time that I ever heard of a point-spread in baseball in my early years, was when Clemens was -300 and rather than allow credit players to take a shot at me I would make him -2runs instead. Then eventually I came out to Vegas and since it was August, baseball was the sport of choice for the "sharps" who employed me and that was my very first encounter with the Run-Line...

Back then, we rarely ever layed it, and in fact I can probably count on 1hand the amount of times we took -1.5runs over my years as a runner as the main wager. Of course the Run-Line gave us the opportunity to scalp at times, but I am refering to using -1.5 as our main bet. Instead I found myself taking +1.5 many times and actually did well with it but then again, back then if the books had their way, from May to Sept, except for the NBA Playoffs, they would have prefered if I left town because in MLB, they stood absolutely no chance of beating us...

Eventually I became friends with many of the other runners, since I saw them more than I saw my own family back then and that was when I first started seeing the positive and negatives associated with Run-Lines...so many times the order would come in to lay -140 on a team and within 30min, it was -175 all across town and since there was no offshore, if you tried to hit your local with it later in the day when they started working...he would probably be using 9 or 11 on the game...I'm sure you remember when MLB lines were offered in that format....so as I sat there awaiting the next order to come in I would get a chance to speak with the others and found out that so many of them were using the RL as a way to avoid the vig when they wanted to get down for themselves...what you need to remember is that our job was to move the play for our boss first, and after that, we were free to do what we wanted for ourselves...

So you can imagine the dilema we each faced each day because we knew the sharp side, but unfortunately couldn't get the sharp number for ourselves...so many of these runners were using the RL as a way to do that and over the years, I saw so many times the look on their faces when the STEAM won by 1 and everyone back at the office was happy, except the people placing the winning wagers.

Eventually as you all know, I went off on my own and began capping my own plays which of course I owe to the education I got working under others and since I was calling the shots, I now had the Run-Line at my disposal and even though I do not use it as much as many capper I know, there still are times when I know its definately the right move to make, and also other times that I see and hear others taking it, and I just know its wrong....so I decided to do a little work...well actually I had one of the guys who helps me do this as a project...and here is what we have found as far as the Run-Line is concerned...

First we found that a single run will win the game 27.8% of the time....but of course that wasn't enough, so I had us all go back in and dig up some details and here is what we've got...

In the last 3yrs, 31.4% of ALL HOME WINS have come by only 1run....and 23.6 % of ALL ROAD WINS have come by 1run....the discrepency is obviously based on the fact that when the game is tied and the home team scores...the game is over, while on the flip-side, the road team can keep on scoring when tied...

From all of our research, another very important fact was discovered...unlike other sports, where home teams win at a much higher rate, in MLB, the HOME TEAM only wins the game about 54% of the time...in the NFL its around 58%, NBA around 60%, and NHL around 63%...so the reason that is so important when discussing the RL is because the oddsmaker will definately be taking that into consideration when making the price...

The other thing we found which was very important is the fact that the Total that is being offered on the game plays a huge role in the price, which is obvious because you should get better compensated when laying -1.5 on a Total of 7, than in one where the Total is 10.5, ...below I will break down the numbers we found for RUN-LINE Results over the past 3+ yrs...

TOTAL        RD TM WINS       HM TM WINS       % RD TM by 1       % HM TM by 1

  7                    41.8 %                    58.2 %                    31%                       38.5 %

  7.5                 43.6 %                    56.4 %                    24%                       36.7 %

  8                    48.5 %                    51.5 %                    28.2 %                   33.1 %

  8.5                 46.6 %                    53.4 %                    23.8 %                   30.5 %

  9                    45.5 %                    54.5 %                    22.2 %                    30.6 %

  9.5                 44.3 %                    55.7 %                    23.8 %                    30.8 %

  10                  49.4 %                    50.6 %                    26.2 %                    27.7 %

  10.5               43.4 %                    56.6 %                    20.3 %                    27.4 %

  11                  43.7 %                    56.3 %                    20.3 %                    31.5 %

These are the figures for RUN-LINES in MLB over the past 3+ yrs and because they have remained consistant, I feel we have enough of a sample to draw many different conclusions to help us best determine whether or not, when we break down the price being offered, and compare the likelyhood of a particular outcome....whether or not applying the RL will prove to show us a better return over time than going ahead and laying the ML and swallowing the vig....because if you remember and I feel that I should make a Blog Post about this topic...you can actually lay -200 and still have value...there is no law that value only exists in Dogs...that is another one of those bettors misconceptions that I am always refering to....

I hope that this helps you a bit through the next couple of months of the MLB Season and I am sure that this is a topic that can definately get a lot more coverage because as sports betting continued to grow and hit the mainstream like poker has...you will see a lot of people trying to take advantage of the RL without fully knowing the details and instead, only concerned with the pretty price its offering...and as that happens, remember, the oddsmakers will have to adjust to compensate....kind of like the pros at the poker tables had to do for all the new "dead money" that was entering tournaments...and as sharp and successful bettors...we will be able to take full advantage of it because unlike the masses, we have forced ourselves to learn whether or not value is actually present....Please feel free to add your thoughts to this post because maybe we can expand on this subject much more over the next few weeks, and I am also very eager to find out how many of you use the RUN-LINE....best of luck, Vegas-Runner...

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