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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

"TRUE STEAM" for TUES 1-26-10

Although it's impossible for me to publish a "True Steam" Blog each and every day because of time restraints on some days...When I do have time, I always like to pass along some of those Early Moves that my own Numbers/Ratings support as good positions to take...

Many times, it has nothing to do with time restraints...and instead has to do with either my Numbers/Ratings not supporting any of those Early Moves...or even because of the lack of positions taken by the Betting Syndicates early...

Because I spent so many years moving these very "Steam Plays"...I have an excellent understanding of what it is that they are trying to accomplish with a lot of their Early Moves...And because I still have a wealth of sources that are taking these positions for those Betting Syndicates, more times than not, I'm able to confirm my opinions...

Today, is one of those times where we are really seeing a lack of "True Steam" by the Betting Syndicates...And to be perfectly honest, although so far they have gone ahead and taken a few early positions...I am very confident that these positions are not based on anything more than the fact that they are taking advantage of an "Out" that isn't using a line that is uniform across the board...so when they bet into it, other books see that and take the initiative to adjust slightly...as a way of preventing getting "steamed"...Or, these Early Moves are simply a smoke screen for a "True Steam" Bet that is coming later in the day...or even a way to set up a "middle" later in the day...

So I wanted to take the opportunity, since I scheduled myself an 1 1/2 hours to put a "True Steam" bet out today...and discuss what the "lack of steam" actually means...Because remember, I was and am right there in the trenches...So I am very much aware of the different manuevers made by those winning Outfits...And because I do put so much work into each and every "True Steam" Blog that I publish...and try to pass along both...winning selections, and more importantly, knowledge and experiences...I was not going to simply pass along a play, unless I myself was going to back it with cash...And since I haven't done so, I felt this was a great opportunity for us to discuss what is happening in the market...

 

Bottom Line...we've seen that when the Outfits are winning, the sportsbooks either over-adjust or even fear putting a line up too soon...But lately, these Betting Syndicates have not been doing so well...Which is the total opposite of how they did in the first 2 months of the NBA & CBB seasons...when they were just destroying the books, and forcing adjustments upwards of 3-5pts on so many sides and totals...

That just hasn't been the case here lately, so what we are seeing is that the sportsbooks are more willing to put their lines up sooner than before...and aren't adjusting as drastically for "steam"...Now obviously some of that has to do with the fact that the betting public has now gotten more involved in basektball...Which means that there is less of a liability on many of the games...But I can tell you from experience, that it don't matter how much public money may be coming in, or expected on a particular side or total...the Wiseguys will always get respect because historically, the books know that they will cash more tickets than they trash...

 

So why are these Betting Syndicates not making as many Early Moves as they previously were ?? Is it because they lack the confidence, or is it because the lines have gotten so much stronger ??

Well, fortunately because I speak with those guys who move these "steam plays" throughout the day...every day...I can tell you that it's neither...In fact, this is actually a strategy that they employ many times when they aren't doing as well as they think they should be...

And what they are doing has 2 parts...The first, is that they are not going to tip their hand early when they are losing...Because they want to make sure that they are able to get as much money down as possible...at the very best number...And what happens when they tip their hand early is that the off-shore books adjust so quickly that it becomes difficult to get it all down at a particular number...So they then go ahead and give up a 1/2 pt or even 1pt of value...to get that wager down...This is something that they do not want to do when they aren't winning...

More importantly, many "Locals" will not offer a line as early as off-shore books do...I mean, not even here in Vegas will they put a line up that hasn't already been bet into off-shore...And when they do, they put such low limits on them that it don't make it worth it to show your true intentions...So by waiting, they are able to line up more outs to get ALL their money down at the desired number...And also reap the benefits of having their cappers put more time into breaking down the match-ups...Because when you aren't winning, you don't want to even give up that vig that you would normally do to get off a bet...Reason being, not every "buy-back" is offering up a long-term profitable "middle"...

Second, they want to allow the oddsmakers and bookmakers to have a false sense of confidence in their numbers and the adjustments...Because adjustments are made by how much money is being bet, and also by who is betting it...and how they are currently doing...A perfect example is early in the CBB season when we see year in and year out...the Syndicates beat the books up so badly on Totals...that the books are willing to adjust as much as 7+ points...And offer a "middle" rather than continue getting "steamed" by other Outfits piggy-backing the "hot" ones...rr even the wanna-be sharps, who spend all day monitoring line moves...

It's human nature that when we are winning...we get more and more confident...So we can expect the oddsmakers and sportsbooks to do the same...And that's exactly what these Outfits want them to do...Because as they get more confident or even cocky, they end up actually providing a bigger edge for these Wiseguys...Which is exactly what everyone wants when then aren't winning...

 

So how do we take advantage of this ??

It's simple...by paying much more attention, and giving more respect...to "Late Steam"...rather than "Early Steam" during these stretches...And although they don't last, and eventually things flip-flop back and forth throughout a season...by knowing what is going on, and being sure that this is truely what is happening in the market-place...we as handicappers can know when to give more respect to "early steam" and when to do so for "late steam"...

A perfect example is the "Late/Late Steam" Bet that I gave out last night for FREE on Twitter...Which was OVER 141 STJ/PENN...

This Total Opened at 144...and I can promise you that although we saw it drop all the was down to 140.5 at some spots around 6pm est...that the 3.5 pt line-move wasn't based on even $1.00 worth of "Wiseguy Money"...Instead, after speaking with books...it was based 100% on the fact that after the ESPN Match-Up (Mis vs Kan)...that this was the 2nd biggest bet total of the day in CBB by the "public"...

And what the Wiseguys did is exactly what we touched on above...They allowed the books to get a false sense of confidence that they can go ahead and move their lines however they please, to make sure the public is getting the worst of it...Especially since it don't seem like the Outfits have any interest in taking a position...I mean, they didn't do anything as the books adjusted in 1/2pt incriments throughout the day...so why not go ahead an take advantage of this, thought the bookmakers...

But what did we see...about 15-20min before tip-off...after EVERY sportsbook had adjusted the Total down as much as they could...EVERY Betting Syndicate on the planet sent out a "Buy-Order" on the OVER 140.5...Because as soon as one made the move, the rest went ahead and unloaded as well...And from what I was told, that OVER ended up being by far...the biggest position of the day for the Wiseguys...

So you can rest assured that these Betting Syndicates win because they know that it's a war...And like any war, you have to be able to adjust to current conditions...or run the risk of being destoyed...This is why these guys win long-term all the time...Because they have no egos, and instead are willing to concede at times that maybe their numbers just aren't as sharp as the oddsmakers are at the present...So instead of continuing to fight the same way, they change their strategy and use different methods to win these small battles...as their cappers are hard at work sharpening up their weapons (ratings/numbers)...

And when they then see that these weapons are as stong as they should be...or more importantly, stronger than the oddsmakers/bookmakers...Then they go ahead and flip the script, and come at them a different way again...this time, beating them with Early Moves...

Remember, this is a war...and it's a constant battle against the oddsmakers/bookmakers...And the key is to never allow it to become a war against yourself...By doing self destructive things, or allowing your ego to force you into not adapting with the current market conditions...When I was a runner, that was one of the things that shocked and impressed me the most...that these Betting Syndicates had absolutely no problem changing gears, using smoke screens, and finally, being willing to adjust to the market immediately...and knowing when they had to do so...

Finally, forgive me for once again going on and one about these topics...But you know how much I love this racket, and I have so many experiences and have so much knowledge that I picked up along the way that I love sharing with those who I know have just as much passion as I do...So forgive me for not having an Official "True Steam" Bet for tonight's action just yet...But I'm sure that we will see more Early Moves here very soon that I agree with...And my clients can be sure that we will have plenty of "Late Steam" on our Cards when this is happening...

Keep your eye on the market as tip-off approaches...and you may see some of the strongest "True Steam" Bets of the day...Thanks again for your continued support and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.

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