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"TRUE-STEAM" Daily Follow-Up (Thu 10-1) NCAAFB & NFL

"TRUE STEAM" for NCAAFB & NFL (Week Ending 10-4-09) :

On Monday Morning, I went ahead and passed along some of the major positions that various off-shore & US Syndicates had taken immediately after the "Next Week's Football  Lines were offered to the betting public...And as I've explained previously, the "STEAM" that I want to point out are those initial moves which are either attempts at future middle opportunities, or the "True Positions" based on the simple fact that the Ratings used by the Syndicates show a different number than what the books are offering...

We've touched on the fact that almost EVERY side & total will move from it's opening line...But that doesn't mean that the Wiseguys have taken a "True Position" on those moves...And because I spent so many years moving "Steam"...and have plenty of sources who still do, I will be able to help you differntiate the "True Moves", from the rest...And try to educate you from my own experiences, so that you too can ultimately be able to differentiate "True Steam"...and more importantly, get an inside look at the type of Positions these Syndicates look for, as well as the numbers that offer the most value when betting...VR

"TRUE STEAM" NCAAFB for SAT (10-3-09) :

1.) WAKE FOREST opened PK/-1....Now -2.5

This wager made by the Betting Syndicates is the perfect example of why it is so difficult for bettors to try and make a living following "steam"...Because we saw plenty of reaction from the marketplace on this game which wasn't consistant early on...Almost all of the off-shore books who are known for putting up the earliest numbers, went ahead and opened this game at a PICK last Sunday...while CRIS seemed to lean towards WF and opened their line up at-1...We saw no action come in from the Wiseguys during that first 24hr period, and in anticipation of public money coming in on NC St for this game, by the time Vegas opened up their lines for the following week...we saw such properties as the Hilton actually make NC St a -1 pt favorite on Monday...And that move even made some off-shore shops go to -1 on NC St as well...That line was still there on Tuesday, but after having some time to work on the games...the Outfits immediately sent out a Buy-Order on WAKE FOREST at +1 by Wed morning...And the betting didn't stop there as the Wiseguys continued to bet WF at +1, PK, and even -1...Some books went to -1.5, while others didn't want more Wiseguy action and immediately took it up to -2...Since then, we've seen this line settle at WF -2.5 and there has been no word of a "Buy-Back"...Just the opposite actully, because the books believe that the betting public will come in the other way and help them balance the action...This will also help the books avoid having to open themselves up to a middle, by being forced to go to -3 if the public instead chose to follow the wiseguys...I will add that for some reason or other, my experience moving steam has shown me that the Outfits LOVE getting + Points with Both teams...Meaning that if they can get WF +1 and then NC St + 1.5 or better, more times than not, they'll do it...Couple that with the fact the books believe the public will take NC St, and my Line Prediction for this game is that it will stay below 3 and most likely go off with WF a -2 Pt favorite...VR

2.) BALL ST opened +7/+6....Now +4.5

Well, well, well...A "Steam Play" against "TOLEDO", what a surprise !! Let's tell it like it is and not beat around the bush...When you see the Wiseguys take a Position on or against a team like TOLEDO, who has a checkered past and has actually been accused of "Point Shaving or Fixing"...you have to pay attention and always respect the Position...In this game, once again we saw inconsistancy in the market-place...When the off-shore books opened for business on Sunday for the following week's games, we saw the majority put this up at Toledo -6...and PINNY actually opened at -7...Surprisingly, the Wiseguys didn't touch this match-up on Sunday, and the books, once again expecting money to come in on the favorite by the public, actually had -7 on Toledo all across the board by Monday morning...And that is where the Hilton and other LV Books opened the game...By evening on Monday, a couple of the Outfits grabbed +7 on Ball St, and we saw a slight drop in the line down to 6.5 by the end of the day...Then came Tuesday, and that's when the Syndicates decided to take a "TRUE POSITION" on the game...And the Buy-Orders went out and the runners started firing away at BALL ST...Taking them at +6.5, +6, +5.5, and finally even some at +5...Which forced the books to drop the line on Toledo all the way down to -4.5...Which is where we see it everywhere this morning...I believe that move will scare the betting public some, and more importantly, this isn't the type of game that is going to get too much action and therefore puts the books in a tough spot...Because they may see more followers begin taking Ball St also, but if that happens, they will be very hesitant to drop it more and allow for a huge middle on Saturday...And that is why so many times, you can actually get "Value" following Steam even after the books adjust....Because on these match-ups that don't get too much public money...rather than continuing to adjust and offer a possible middle to the wiseguys...they will instead hold the line steady and take their chances...And that means you are getting a team in a spot where the line should actually be worse than what they are giving you...VR

3.) CINCINNATI opened -26.5....Now -29 (and climbing)

I used to love these type of games back when I was a runner...Because when those lines came up for the previous week, I knew that there were always a handful of teams that I could bet early, and be sure that the betting public is going to be betting them late in the week...Which ultimately opened up a huge middle opportunity for us weekly...And it's on these type of bets that the followers of "Steam" can get themselves in trouble, if they aren't getting the kind of info that allows them to know whether or not the Outfits are actually betting it because they feel the number is "soft"...or whether it's being bet, for the purpose I touched on above, which is to have a huge middle opportunity after the public starts betting the game...And for this bet, I can tell you that it's a bit of both...On Sunday, when the off-shore books opened the game up at -26.5, the Wiseguys took a position on CINCI and forced the move to -27 & -27.5...By Monday morning, we even saw Vegas open their line at -28...That got the Wiseguys attention and they immediately started buying up ALL of the Cinci -27, -27.5, & -28 that they could find...And since that time, the books have adjusted, and we are now looking at Cinci being a -29 pt favorite...You can be sure that the Wiseguys will now sit back and let the betting public get a crack at Cinci, hoping that money forces the books to raise it some more...And that's when we may see a slight Buy-Back on Saturday, simply to try and catch a middle...That don't mean that the Wiseguys are getting off of a game, because what they do is simply bet more than they intend to hold on a side or total...And then try and middle that extra money that was bet...Line Prediction: We won't see this line get back to 26.5 or 27...but if it gets to 30 or higher on Sat, don't be surprised to see a drop back to -28/-29 by kick-off...

"TRUE STEAM" NFL SUNDAY (10-4-09) :

1.) LIONS opened +12/+11.5....Now +10

More times than not, the Wiseguys are going to grab the points in an NFL game where the favorite is laying "double-digits"...They believe that over time, laying double-digits is a losing proposition in the NFL...just like going Over 70 is in NCAAFB...And although they won't just bet these blindly, it definitely takes a lot less supporting data for them to take a "True Position" in these spots...And although they waited a few hours on Sunday, after the NFL lines for the following week were already being offered off-shore...before the evening was over, the Wiseguys made sure they grabbed all the +12 & +11.5 they could find on the Lions...By Monday morning, most books had adjusted and here in Vegas we saw them open the game up at CHI -10, which allowed them to avoid having to book wiseguy action with Detroit...But offshore, any book that hadn't moved down to -10, and was still offering the game at -10.5...saw the Wiseguys come in and grab +10.5 on Detroit once again...I've noticed that the Wiseguys have a good handle on Detroit this year...They've Cashed all 3 times they've bet on them or against them...In Week's 1 & 2 they opted to fade the Lions, then came back in Week 3 and backed them as a dog in a game they won SU...Making the Outfits perfect on Detroit games...So once again, we have to give the move some respect...And the books don't think the public will help them balance their books by laying the chalk with the Bears...So if you are looking to take the Dog here and follow the Steam, it's a bet that I would make sooner, rather than later...And I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this game go off at less than -10...VR

Those are a handful of the more significant moves made by the Betting Syndicates...And each Weekday, I will try to zero in on those games that the Wiseguys are affecting the market most on...And also try and get you those moves which aren't actually "TRUE STEAM" at all...Best of Luck, VR

Follow me at: www.Twitter.com/VegasRunner

My early week True Steam report

My homepage at www.VegasRunner.com

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