Allright fellas, this will be the Final "Follow-Up" for this week's "TRUE STEAM" series...And so far we've discussed a handful of the biggest "Positions" taken by the off-shore and US based Betting Syndicates...On Monday, we covered some of the bigger moves caused by these Wiseguys as soon as the sportsbooks offered their lines for the following week's NCAAFB & NFL match-ups...Then we came back on Thursday and went over some of the bigger positions taken after these Outfits had some time to work on the games...And today, we'll go ahead and try and cover a couple more big moves that were forced on the books by these Betting Syndicates...
Before I get to these moves...keep in mind that so much betting will be going on TONIGHT...And if you have some time, and would like to see these Wiseguys in action...just make sure you tune into the Lines late this afternoon, and throughout this evening...Because you will definitely see the sportsbooks scrambling to adjust their lines as quickly as they can because the various Outfits will be spending that time firing STEAM...Especially for NCAAFB Sides & Totals...So if you get a minute, check that out and you'll see STEAM being bet Live for sure...
With that said, let's get to some of this weekend's "TRUE STEAM" that has already been bet...
"TRUE STEAM" for NCAAFB (Sat 10-3-09) :
1.) PURDUE opened -6/-6.5....Now -8
These are the kind of bets that really made me feel lucky to be getting such strong, and more importantly, respected information...Because it's the kind of bet, that I was 100% sure going in...to be getting the best of it...And here's why...When the off-shore books opened up Purdue for the following Saturday, they put the line out at -6 & -6.5...And by the end of Sunday, the books were still showing the same number...In fact, when Vegas put up their lines for the following week, I saw Purdue at -6 most Strip Properties, including the Hilton who puts up a pretty early line...But by the end of Monday, the Wiseguys announced their "Position" by sending out a "Buy-Order" on PURDUE -6 & -6.5...That got the books moving, and by Tuesday the line was -7 everywhere...Now the books reached a number that they really don't want to move off of, and it took a couple of more Wiseguy bets on Wednesday to get them to finally come off of 7, and go to -7.5...At that point, a couple of the Outfits thought it was a good opportunity to try for a middle, and immediately took NW +7.5...Giving them a 1.5 pt middle on a Key Number...This again forced the Books to drop the line back to -7 on Purdue...And just when they thought that fiasco was over, another "Buy-Order" was sent out on Purdue by those Outfits who didn't try for a middle...and once again, they went out looking to buy up all the -7 that was available...This time, the books weren't going to concern themselves with the middle opportunity...and realizing that they would most likely be getting Purdue money from the betting public on Saturday...the books went ahead and moved it up to -7.5 and eventually -8...Which is where we are seeing it this morning...I said at the top that these were the kind of bets I loves because I knew I was getting so much the best of it...Because it's become obvious that the Wiseguys believe that getting -7 or better on Purdue, is definitely the right side...We may see some "Buy-Back" on Saturday,especially if the Betting Public does what they are expected and also bets Purdue..forcing an even greater adjustment , which would then force an even bigger middle...But with that said, if you see this game go off at -8 or higher...you can be absolutely sure that the Wiseguys love Purdue and have taken a huge position to prove it...VR
2.) MEMPHIS opened +9/+8.5/+8....Now +6.5
This is one of those bets made by the Betting Syndicates after their handicappers had a chance to work on the game...Because when this line originally was offered for the following week on Sunday night...there was very little action from the Wiseguys...And instead, we saw a move based on the simple fact that each of the off-shore books who put out an early line...were a bit different from each other...By the end of the day, the little money that did get bet by the Wiseguys on Memphis...made all the books agree to put this line at -8 by the end of Sunday...Then Monday came, and the Wiseguys decided that anything higher than a TD is offering some Value, and they immediately went to work buying up all the +8 & +7.5 that they could find on Memphis...So by the time the Las Vegas books opened the game, we were looking at CFLA as a -7 pt favorite...That's where it stayed and last night I got a call by one of my friends who moves STEAM for a living and we were discussing some of the moves, when we got down to this game...and he says, "Oh Yea, we are planning on taking more Memphis action later tonight at +7, so if you like them, go on and get them now"...And to be perfectly honest, I really didn't have a position to try and confirm in that game so I let it go...Only to wake up this morning to find that they did go ahead and bet MEMPHIS again..In fact, not only did some Wiseguys get down late last night...But if you look at your lines this, you will notice that the rest of the Outfits also decided to join the party this morning...and have since bet Memphis down to +6.5...This again opens up the kind of middle the Wiseguys love taking...and I wouldn't be surprised if some decided to lay -6.5 or better if they can on Saturday morning...Which would then have this game go off at -7...If not, then you can be sure once again that the Outfits love Memphis in this one..VR
"TRUE STEAM" for NFL (Sun 10-4-09) :
1.) NO SAINTS opened -6.5....Now -7
Once again we are looking at a very small move as far as "points" are concerned...But because of the numbers involved, as well as the attention that this game will demand, it actually is very significant...Let me explain...The offshore books went ahead and opened this line at -6.5, and only the Greek seemed to want to take a position, by offering the line at "7"...That was gutsy, but what was more surprising and somewhat telling, to me early on...was the fact that the Outfits didn't bet +7 with the Greek, even though the rest were using 6.5...Something that they would usually do, especially in the NFL...So I immediately felt that the Outfits also had an opinion on this game...and that opinion was probably NO...I believe that they initially felt the betting public may line up and bet this hot Jets team at almost a TD dog, which would then lower the line for the Outfits...But when that didn't happen immediately, rather than allow the other books to figure out what may be coming and also go to 7 on NO...the Wiseguys stepped up and bet up all the -6.5 that they could find on NO by Wed...And from what I've been told, the Outfits got pretty lucky, since some books, including most here in Vegas...went ahead and lowered their line to -6, in anticipation of Jets money...And because they were hesitant to get to 7, and moved in 1/2 pt incriments...the Wiseguys were able to get some serious money down...The key to this will be where does it go from here and how will the public bet this game...Because if the wiseguys were planning on coming back on Sunday and backing the Jets, then this was a move of genius and will get them more points than they could have imagined coming in...But if they are going to keep all the NO money they bet, and the Public comes in on the Jets...then they may have moved a little too fast...It's at 7 now, and I don't think anyone wants to come off it...which is why I believe it will go off at 7, unless the Outfits decide taking an even bigger Position on NO...VR