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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    Yesterday - 4:48 PM

PART II : HANDICAPPING ERRORS to AVOID

Well I was really hoping to get more feedback from you guys on my last blog so that I would be able to really zero in on those factors which I believe are holding some really good cappers back from being great cappers...but I understand that summer is upon us and people are doing a lot more outdoor activities, so I will try to go over some of the things that I think are important for all handicappers to consider...

For starters, I truely feel that too many bettors are willing to wager without putting in the actual time that it requires to beat the number. What needs to be understood, is the fact that if you are actually trying to wager on sports as an investment, rather than for entertainment....it is going to require a lot of dedication and hard work. The reason for this is simple...you are attempting to beat a price that has been set by a group of men whose only responsibility is to set a price which will entice bettors to take the worst of it, while attemtping to increase the advantage their clients (books) have over the bettors. Now if you are doing this as a form of entertainment..then this doesn't apply because entertainment costs money and therefore you should expect to get billed...

Next, I have seen way too many bettors look at the board and even without having created their own number to compare, which I will get to a little later...go ahead and make their mind up right there and then about a bet. Now there is nothing wrong with instinct, and I believe that as you gain experience and really understand the inner workings of this market, you will become much better at locating certain situations which immediately scream "winner"...but what I am refering to is that too many cappers, after making that assumption...then go on to locate information or data that supports that decision...and there is no bigger mistake than that, because as human beings we tend to be extremely biased towards our own opinions, which is understandable...but as a handicapper, that really does you no good because its like a trend...if you really want to find one that supports your selection, it won't be too difficult to find...

Instead, I think that the approach should be this...you see a game that you feel is a good pick...but now, rather than try and locate a bunch of data which simply supports those feelings...instead, try and reason on a different level...try and figure out exactly why you think its a good pick...if its the price, then explain to yourself why the price is being offered...could it be a mistake, or could there be something that I do not know which is behind it...does public perception play a huge factor in this particular game (if its a MNF or ESPN game...the answer is always YES)...then when you break down the match-up try and justify taking the other team and really test yourself to see if you can make a case for them because as time passes and you get better and better at doing this...you will begin to see just how strong you play really is...and that then helps you rate your bets better...meaning that you become more efficient at choosing the unit size of your bets...which is something I will discuss when I write about money management...because it plays a major role...

Next, I know how difficult it is to know for sure if a game is being "steamed" if you aren't moving it yourself or have access to those who do...and the reason for this is obvious...many times there are different reasons why a number will move a few points even, which has nothing to do with "sharp" money taking a stand. What many fail to realize is, this is actually the "game"...meaning who is quicker to the move, and since I have had the privilage of playing that game, I know first hand that many times the books will beat the "sharps" to an adjustment which takes the value out of the play and therefore isn't "steam" at all...but I find too many people following it and assuming they are with the "smart money"...And then, you always need to be conscious of what the betting public is doing...and not because you want to be fading them or following them, but more importantly, because you want to be able to interpret how the market is reacting to action. And ask yourself...are they afraid of being heavy on one side ?? Why or why not...may help you form a more complete picture of what the oddsmaker is thinking...

And although our jobs is to be able to beat the oddsmakers price...we as cappers must respect the fact that these guys have access to a lot of information and their only obligation is knowing as much as possible about everything that has to do with the teams involved. And that brings me to the next thing that I have always found strange. I hear so many people say, "I would never pay for a pick"...and that is the most foolish attitude to have in this game if you intend on beating it. And I am not saying this because I am someone who now sells his information...Instead, I say this because I have worked under the most successful and respected sports bettors ever...and every single one of them paid for info and made sure that I understood that I was to try and locate winning info wherever possible and when I do...snatch it up as my own.

The reason for that is simple...Information is your weapon and the more weapons you have...the better chance you have of winning the war. The key is being able to locate, purchase, and to use it correctly. But more importantly, your success will hinder on your ability to locate "Winning Information"...and that is where the difficulty is. There is just too much worthless information available out there and securing profitable info becomes extremely difficult. But I will be the first to tell you that there has not been a day in my career as a sports bettor that I have not paid for information....NOT ONE...and my goal is always to try and locate even more of it so that I can be even more "armed" when I try to choose the right sides.

Now there are a lot more factors that I would like to go over which I feel are extremely important, and even possibly some further detail to possibly help you get started in moving in the right direction to becoming a more efficient and successful handicapper. And as we move forward, I would love to try and go over many of them and the best way for me to do that is to simply reply to your comments and questions. Like I have said before, I am accessable to you but you need to help me, help you...meaning, I was able to learn so much more than many of the other runners who I still see..and most of those guys are still looking for sharps to move money for because they didn't try to learn why they were making those bets. They didn't take the time to ask the kind of questions that would make them less dependent on others, so when they did try to go off on their own and bet for themselves...it didn't work out for them. So please, if there is something that is on your mind, or a question that you wished could be answered...do not be shy or timid...go ahead and ask it because that is how questions become answers. I want to thank you all for your support once again, and Best of Luck, VR...

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