Because I have always approached sports betting as a market, where one side sets a price (Oddsmaker/Bookmaker)...and the other side decides whether it's too high or too low and bets accordingly...I just couldn't pass up the chance to compare and convert the 2008 Presidential Election into an NFL Pointspread.
After taking a look around the web, at many of the off-shore sportsbooks who have posted a "price" on the upcoming election...I have concluded that the average lay price to Bet Senator Obama is about -700...Now that means, that for every $100 you want to win...you would have to lay $700, which ultimately makes Senator Obama an overwhelming favorite...The return price on Senator McCain is about +400, which means that for every $100 that you wager on him to win the Presidency next week, you would get back $400...Which is a bit higher than what Boxer Bernard Hopkins paid just a week ago, when he spoiled the party by derailing the "Younger", "Stronger", and "Expected Winner"...Kelly Pavlik...
But since we are in the heart of the football season...let's go ahead and convert those Prices into fair NFL "Point-Spread" equivalencies...And try and handicapp this election, based on that price...
For starters, at a lay price of -700...Senator Obama would come into "game-day" at about an -11 Point Favorite over Senator McCain...Which as most sports bettors would agree, is a very big number to lay in professional football...where parity is expected much more than in college sports...And usually, most recreational bettors would be the one's who wouldn't mind laying such a big number...
As for McCain, that would mean he is a huge "double-digit" Dog, heading into election/game-day...Because when it comes to sports which carry a point-spread, you either "lay" or "take" the same amount of points which are being offered...
But because this type of wager is a "Money-Line" Bet...and the sportsbook keeps a nice hold for themselves for booking the action...In reality, having Senator McCain installed as a +400 under-dog...would be the equivalent to an NFL team getting around "9" Points....Which once again, is a "Big Dog" in the NFL....and one that I am sure all of the "sharp" bettors would be lining up to back, which would "steam" the line down I believe...
To see just how big of a Favorite the sportsbooks have made Senator Obama, heading into the final week before the election...This week in the NFL (Week 9)...the closest comparisons would be Jacksonville Jaguars who are a -9 point favorite, on the road no less, against the win-less Cincinnati Bengals....Or like the Chicago Bears, who are a -12.5 point favorite at home...against the win-less Detroit Lions...
Fortunately for Obama supporters, he only needs to win...in order to become our next President, and not neccessarily by any particular amount of points...but instead electorial votes. On the other hand, McCain supporters may find comfort in knowing that just last February 3rd...the New York Giants, who were an underdog of a point or two higher (Patriots -12.5)...went on to defeat the highly favored and highly touted New England Patriots, by a score of 17-14...After some miraculous plays were made late in the game...while the Patriots had felt they had the game in the bag...
Will we see the Favorite, Obama come out on Election/Game-Day and cover the number like those 49ers & Cowboy teams we all remember...Or will the "live-dog" bite once more, and pull off another exciting back-door cover...just when we thought the outcome was final...The answer to that, barring any problems in Florida this time around...should be settled late Tuesday Night...24hrs after the Steelers and Redskins meet in Washington, in a game that the oddsmakers have set at more or less a "Pick-em" (Redskins -1.5)...
Either way, with all the conflicting reports we should continue to hear and read about...leading up to the "Big Game" on Tuesday. The only thing that I can confirm, is that although the point-spread shows otherwise...polls in the past have me believing that as of today, neither candidate is a "Lock"...Best of Luck to Both Men and their Supporters, Vegas-Runner...