In my daily thread this morning, I was asked to answer 2 questions pertaining to this week's NCAAFB & NFL Match-Ups...and I thought that I would take a moment and put up a Blog Post because many may be wondering about my opinions on these same matters. The questions were how do I approach Week 4 of the NFL Preseason, with all the different strategies applied by the various teams in many of the match-ups...and second question was whether I approach Week 1 of the NCAAFB Season differently than the rest, and whether it's true that Favs are more prone to covering ???

First, let's get to Week 4 of the NFL Preseason...I feel that there are definately some good opportunities to take advantage of even in the Final Week as long as you are willing and able to be extemely selective and realize that if you have the game-plan info...then you can be almost 100% sure that the oddsmakers did as well. What that means is, there will be very little value to capitalize on when it becomes official who will play and for how long. Meaning, if Team A is a 3pt Fav and Wed Night announces that they plan on Playing NO Starters at all on Friday...then they will obviously become the Dog and the Value on Team B may no longer be there. Also, if I remember correctly, you can also expect to see much less movement than the previous 3 Weeks, where we were treated to 6pt lines moves like it was nothing. The reason for this is simple...Just like we have created a summary of each coach's tendencies as far as how they approach each week of the Preseason, to how they manage the end of a regular season game, when ahead or behind...I am sure the oddsmakers have also. But with that said, there is opportunities, but this Week you need to go a little deeper in your reasoning when taking a stand, than the normal comparison of personnel that we can get away with early on. Finally, and most IMPORTANT...and this is one of the things that I have noticed most, since becomming more familiar with how recreational bettors approach the market, that I didn't realize before I decided to share my work here at Pregame...and truthfully never even realized when booking because back then, although I was able to pick up on patterns which help me to this day, I never really got a chance to hear their reasoning behind their bets...So getting back to that important factor...The one thing that I believe too many bettors are unable to do is change their minds...meaning, to be very successful as a handicapper and even as a sports bettor...you need to be willing to like the Favorite at -3...but be willing to Unload on the Dog 2 days later if you can get +5...Too many bettors do their capping and like the Team -3 but do not have a grasp of actual value/strength.

I was fortunate to have begun my career as a handicapper while working for many of the syndicates moving "Steam"...and was quickly taught that we may love the Fav -9.5...but the Dog is a LOCK if you can get them at +12. And it was all of those years of working around that type of reasoning that has allowed me to totally look at this market as a numbers game and nothing more...So as much as I love sports, and I love to watch them and get into them just like you do...I also make sure that when it comes to my betting, I put all of that aside and I treat it strictly like a business and a market. Because the key to beating it is by having the ability to analyze Prices and determine the "True Worth"...and then look to take advantage of the discrepency between what they are selling it at, and what you are willing to spend for it.

Now the 2nd question which deals with Week 1 of the NCAAFB Season and how I approach it is pretty complex because I am one of those handicappers who is always willing to adjust my initial thinking and numbers. I have absolutely no ego at all when it comes to my numbers and the ability to quickly determine I have made a mistake is what I credit a lot of my success to. In Week 1 of the NCAAFB Season everyone is excited and looking for action and the books know this. For myself, I approach each sport in sections...meaning there are various parts to a season and you have to be equiped to adjust your reasoning accordingly. In Week 1, I remember when I was a Runner...we may had made 30 bets, but truth was, we really only needed 4-5 sides/totals...Because the rest were simply arbitrary opportunities based on experience. For instance, I can tell you that you can almost blindly bet EVERY UNDER when the numbers come out and have an opportunity for a middle on Game-Day...Now we didn't do it blindly but I can tell you that when the numbers first went up...I was lined up ready to take a ratio of 9 Unders to 1 Over every year. But getting back to my approach, I tend to be very selective during the 1st week because I know the sportsbooks have had enough time to properly adjust the numbers sent to them by the oddsmakers...and from booking I can tell you that you will be looking at the public backing almost EVERY single Fav...In fact, even with some sharp money on the Dogs...the books will be heavy on the Fav of probably every single game. And with good reason because I don't have it right here in front of me because I am not at my home office yet, but I believe something like 65% of Favs Covered Week 1 last year in NCAAFB and about 63% of Favs Covered the Prime-Time Televised Games which get the most Volume...Will that happen this year, maybe not to that extreme because obviously it stung enough that I have already seen some differences is the prices offered. But with that said, if you are a player who prefers Favs...now if the time for you to do your best work because between now and Week 3-4...all of us, including the oddsmakers will be tightening up our numbers and they will be much sharper and tougher to beat. Same holds true in the NFL more or less although this year may be an exception because after 58% of the Favs covered last year...The pressure from the books should force the oddsmakers to be willing to adjust their ratings more than ever before...something they do not like doing.

That is my take on the two topics and I hope my answers shed some light into how I feel about them...like I said, these are very complex issues and to truely give a deeper explaination of my reasoning would take a lot of time and right now, there is just too much work that needs to get done. Please feel free to go into the Pod-Cast Weekly Question Thread in the Forum and post some of the questions/topics you would like me and the other cappers on the panel to discuss...because I believe that you can get a better feel for what we really want to get across from it, than from writing....Thanks again for all of your support and best of luck...Vegas-Runner