Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs

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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    06/08/2017 10:19 AM

NFL "TRUE STEAM" Wk 16..."3-0" Sweep L/Wk !!

We have had an incredibly successful season identifying "True Steam" in Both, the NFL & CFB...But more importantly, we've been able to isolate those handful of positions taken by the Betting Syndicates, that offer the most betting value...And it's really paid off...

We went "28-13" (68% ATS) for the Entire Season...and an even better, "23-8" (76% ATS) over the L/2 months...

Which goes to show that as we strengthen our Ratings...and the Oddsmakers/Bookmakers have to adjust heavier for "public perception"...we gain an even bigger edge...

Unfortunately, the CFB Season was over a few weeks ago...and the NFL Season is coming to a close...

And when it comes to the Post-Season...there are so many different manuevers that the Outfits use to try and profit...from middling to scalping, to allowing the "public" to force adjustments that ultimately provide betting value...that it becomes almost impossible to uncover the "True Position" of these Syndicates until game-day...Which I will pass along to Subscribers as "Personal Plays" or "Late Steam" on Game-day...

Fortunately, we have now had a few months of NBA & CBB...And I will continue to strengthen my Ratings/Numbers as we move forward...which is also what the Wiseguys are doing...So that when the football season is all but over, and more recreational/public bettors begin getting involved in basketball...we will once again have the same opportunities that we've had in football to beat the books...

I'm not sure whether it's because of the terrible weather the country is experiencing...or whether it's because the holiday's have even the Outfits taking it a bit easier until the weekend gets here...But as of Thursday, there have been very few "True Positions"...And even fewer that my own Ratings/Numbers support...

But with that said...I was able to Isolate 1 "True Steam" Bet that I know for fact, the Syndicates took a significant position on...and that my own work supports as offering excellent betting value...

And I've decided that I would go ahead and Pass it along to all of the Forum Members...and so many others who use this information daily/weekly for their own work...for FREE...As my way of saying Thank You, for such a great season of "True Steam"...

Without your interest and participation...I probably wouldn't have continued putting so much work into it, and I definitely wouldn't have seen the need to do a Daily NBA/CBB Blog...So Thank You...VR

 

 

NFL "TRUE STEAM" for SUN 12-27-09 :

 

1.)  NY JETS opened +7....Now +5.5

This is the kind of "move" that really used to baffle me back when I first started moving "steam" back in Philly...Because I never understood why they would send out a "Buy-Order" for a huge "Public Favorite"...as soon as the lines for the following week's games went up...That was, until I moved out here to Las Vegas to move "steam"...

Because back in Philly, although I knew that I wasn't the only guy moving "steam"...I did think that the main source/s was the same...But when I moved to Vegas, and got the chance to stand in the Stardust Sportsbook for the very first time...on a Sunday evening at 5:30pm pst...it all became crystal clear...Because it was on that very first Sunday, that I realized we weren't alone...

Truth is, I didn't even see the importance of putting my name in the hat Joe Lupo would hold out for us to put our names in, for him to draw positions for what place in line we got to take...And I remember that when the lines finally went up, although I had a list of possibilities...I didn't end up being able to take a single position...Because there were so many other "runners", "wiseguys", & "sharps" who were already waiting to jump on any value that was there...

And that is when it became apparent...that there were a handful of Betting Syndicates...whose information was as strong as ours was...And that's when I realized that my success was going to depend on my ability to beat them to that betting value, each and everyday...

This is why we saw the line for this game move immediately...Because although the betting public, is obviously going to be betting the Colts on game-day...when the books hung that 7 up there for this game...there was already enough value for the Betting Syndicates to start betting, rather than risk being left out of this party...

Of course they probably could have gotten better than +7 if they waited for the public to start betting the Colts...Which would really add some extra value to this bet...But the bottom line is that even at 7, it was worth a significant position...And more importantly for us, there was plenty of value, even at less...

So when this line came out on Monday afternoon...the Wiseguys went to work and started betting the JETS +7, +6.5, & +6...

This forced the adjustment all the way down to 5...Which is where it closed when the betting ceased on Monday evening...VR

 

LINE PREDICTION : Although my "True Line" shows that there may still be some value in betting the Jets +5...the truth is, I really don't think that's the number that you will end up getting, if you decide to follow the Wiseguys...Because even if the Outfits don't decide to try and attempt a "middle"...there will be more than enough public money bet on the Colts -5...and also on "teasers", that the books will be forced to adjust this line and move it back up some...So far, none of the guys who we have access to, that move "steam"...have said they expect to try and "middle" this game...But with that said, they did take a big enough position...that the books shouldn't have any fear in moving it back up, because these Outfits won't need anymore Jets action...But even if a few of the Outfits do decide to try and attempt a "middle"...which some ultimately should, for at least some of their position...the books will again be able to move the line back up...And that will be an attempt by the books to try and give the betting public, the worst of it...So bottom line, either way...unless word comes out that the Colts aren't going to play their starters like normal...we will see this line go back up between now and kick-off...VR

So if you plan on following VR and the Betting Syndicates...by betting the Jets...Then I suggest you wait until closer to kick-off, for the very best line...But if you plan on backing the Colts, and fading the Outfits...then I would go ahead and lay -5 now, because I don't think it can get much lower...Unless, as I mentioned above, there are rumors of starters not playing their normal time...

That is the this week's NFL "True Steam" Bet...And it is the ONLY "early move"...that is truely supported by my own Ratings/Numbers and more importantly, "confirmed"...

 

Finally, I do have a handful of possible bets for Sunday's NFL...that do appear to be actual "True Steam" Positions...But as of today, they just haven't been confirmed...But I will continue working on confirming those, and will go ahead and use them for this week's NFL Subscribers Card...if I'm able to do so...

Thanks again for all your support fellas, and best of luck...Have a very Merry Christmas...and an even Happier New Year, Vegas-Runner.

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