Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs

Videos are just the START of the conversation. Each show has a dedicated blog post with show notes, links, and pics. Plus, the host and guests continue the conversation in the comments section!

0 Members
  • Type:
    Joinless
  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

NCAAFB & NFL "TRUE STEAM" (10-31 & 11-1)..."5" EARLY MOVES !!

Last week the "True Steam" Bets went 3-3...making them 7-5 the last 2 weeks...And although that may not sound like anything to get excited about...It's exactly the type of results that the Wiseguys have been beating the books with forever...In fact, 58% ATS would be something that any of the Betting Syndicates would be extremely satisfied with...Remember, that the Wiseguys aren't in the business of trying to find those few games that they can unload on...Instead, they look for EVERY opportunity that they perceive to have an edge on...and bet it...Knowing that overtime, with volume, that edge will result in an excellent profit...

And I can personally tell you from experience, after spending a decade plus moving "Steam"...that the approach they use works...And there is no better proof than the fact these sportsbooks move the lines after the Wiseguys bet...they set strict limits on these Wiseguys...and many books even refuse to book what they believe to be "Wiseguy Money", or worse, pay out...So believe me when I tell you, that 58% ATS can make any bettor a lot of money...as long as they wager correctly...Which is something that is always automatic for these Betting Syndicates...

For Week 9 of NCAAFB & Week 8 of the NFL...I was able to uncover and confirm 5 "Early Moves" that my own numbers agreed, offer the most Betting Value based on what the Oddsmakers sent out...and what the Bookmakers decided to hang up and offer us...So without further delay, let's get right down to it and see if we can GRIND like the Wiseguys do...

 

NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for 10-31-09 :

1.) VANDERBILT opened +13.5....Now +11.5

CRIS was first to put a number out on this game and they opened it up at GTech -13.5 on Sunday evening...They didn't receive any Wiseguy money on the game, and when the rest of the off-shore books began making book for next week...most went ahead and opened the game at -13.5 as well...But with the anticipation of the betting public coming in heavy on GTech come Saturday, we saw the Greek open the game at -14...These spreads were still available as of Monday afternoon, until the Outfits decided that they should get involved...The "Buy-Order" was sent out and the Outfits grabbed +13.5 on Vandi, which forced the adjustment to 13...That wasn't enough because within 10min another "Order" was made and the Outfits took +13...That prompted the books to move to -12.5 and the Wiseguys took a step back...but not for long, because after the books had finally relaxed and believed they now had a strong number up on this game...the Wiseguys were making other plans...Which weren't revealed until almost "3" hours later...And that's when the Outfits went back to work on that game and bought up any +12.5 on Vandi that was available...Most books had enough by this time, and rather than play this cat and mouse game with the Wiseguys...immediately moved to -11.5 to test the waters...That was enough to stop them from being bet into on this match-up, but for those who decided to adjust only a 1/2 point to -12 ended up taking a little more money on Vandi before finally getting down to -11.5...LINE PREDICTION : Because the Public is expected to come in strong with GTech money, I don't expect us to see this line drop any further...And since the Wiseguys took a 3hr break between betting, and also didn't bet Vandi on Sunday when the game was first offered...I'd have to think that this was based more on handicapping or information...than it was on a difference of Power Ratings...VR

 

2.) KENT opened +1...Now -2.5

The trend continued for this game, as the Wiseguys decided not to tip their hand until more books offered a line for next weekend's games...And when CRIS opened this line at W MICH -1 and didn't receive any Wiseguy money...all the other books who open for business a little later on Sunday evening...also went ahead and offered W MICH at -1...And that is where the line remained until Monday afternoon, when the Outfits decided to get to work...The "Buy Order" was sent out on KENT, and they took +1...forcing the books to adjust their line to PK...But the Wiseguys weren't done yet, because they went ahead and took KENT at PK...which prompted books everywhere to quickly make KENT the Favorite at -1...These 2 "Orders" were executed inside a 20min period...and then the Outfits backed off...But not for long, because the runners came right back 3 hrs later...looking to now lay -1 on KENT...The books obviously know that this type of match-up doesn't receive much public money on game-day, so they went ahead and made a 1pt move...taking KENT up to -2...And less than 10min later, the Wiseguys hit the books again...this time laying -2 on KENT...That now forced to books to take it to the "Key Number" of "3"...Which is something that they truely don't like doing...Because this now offers a very profitable "Middle" opportunity for the Betting Syndicates, if of course they choose to take it...When the books got to 3 on this game, we did see some Outfits decide to take that "Middle" by grabbing +3 on W MICH...Which is why we are now looking at -2.5 all across the board...LINE PREDICTION : We've seen this type of move plenty already, and I've said it before, that for some reason or other...when the Outfits can get "+ POINTS" on BOTH teams in the same game, more times than not...they will take it...What's interesting here, and what will ultimately put the sportsbooks in a terrible position is that the betting public is expected to bet W MICH...And they will now get them as a DOG...I don't think we will see this line get back to that key number of "3", because the only way the Outfits should now play this, is to work a "Middle"...And the books won't want them being able to get +3...VR

 

3.) TEXAS opened -9....Now -9.5/-10

 Here is one of those examples that we've covered which really makes trying to follow "Steam" extremely difficult, without a good source...Because what we see is a team ranked in the TOP 3, moving simply a 1/2 to 1 point...Which more times than not, shouldn't come as a big surprise to bettors...But it is in this case and I'm going to tell you why...Because in this "Marquee" match-up, the books are expecting the betting public to take the "Home Dog", OKLAHOMA ST plus the points...And this is why such a small move is so significant...When CRIS opened this line at TEXAS -9 on Sunday night, they received no Wiseguy money on either side...So when the rest of the off-shore outs began making book for next week, they felt comfortable putting 9 up also...And here in Vegas, where they open the NCAAFB lines much later...and in fact a day later in most cases...they too felt that 9 was the right number to hang up...But once again, on Monday afternoon...the Betting Syndicates showed that they disagree...Because the "Buy Order" went out, and a couple of groups laid -9 on TEXAS...But with the public expected to come in on the other side, the books cautiously decided to adjust in 1/2 Pt incriments...taking TEXAS up to -9.5...The Wiseguys let them know that it still wasn't high enough and also went ahead and bet it at -9.5, which ultimately led to TEXAS becoming a double-digit road favorite...Since that time, we've seen some books go back down to 9.5...while others, such as the Greek, which caters to Wiseguys... remain at -10...LINE PREDICTION : It appears that the Wiseguys realized the books don't want to entice the public too much by offering a 10 pt "Home Dog"...So they backed off for now...I say for now, because it's obvious to me that their Ratings show Texas to be a good bet at anything less than -10...And I expect them to sit back and see if the betting public comes in on Oklahoma St enough to force the books to lower their lines...so they can possible strike again...Look for this one to drop some as dog money comes in, but with that said, come game-day if you see a move towards Texas again...then you can be very sure that the Outfits really like that side...VR

 

4.) SOUTHERN MISS opened +7.5.... now +6.5

Now here is a "True Steam" bet that was first made based on a difference in "Power Ratings"...and then became one based on handicapping/information as well...Let me explain because this is a HUGE move...For starters, the books expect to get a lot of public money bet on HOUSTON in this game...Which is evident by the fact that CRIS and the GREEK opened the line for this game at the EXACT same time on Sunday...with Cris making HOU -7.5 and Olympic making them -8...For this "Steam" bet, the Outfits waited over 2 1/2 hours after the line was up, to make their move...This tells me that their "Ratings" showed that there was a lot of value being able to get S MISS as a TD or better dog...Because they waited until more of their "Outs" began making book on the following week's games...And when that happend, the Wiseguys went ahead and took +7.5/+8 on S MISS...The books were obviously only going to adjust this line a 1/2 pt, because that now put this game on the "Key Number" of "7"...And some books were even hesitant to do that, since they expect to get 1-sided on the game by the public...So when the night was through, this line was anywhere from 7 to 7.5...Where it stayed until the Outfits decided that it was now time to really take a position...And once the first +7 was bought on S MISS, the rest of the Outfits decided to join in and before you knew it...within a 25min span...the Wiseguys had bought up all the +7's and +6.5's that were available to them...And there were plenty...All that Wiseguy money forced the books to take HOU all the way down to -6...And this morning, we are seeing -6.5 all across the board...LINE PREDICTION : In the heat of battle, the books may have over-reacted... Because as I pointed out, after the "Buy Orders" were executed...we've seen the books go back up a 1/2 pt, to -6.5 on HOU...The reason for this is 2-fold...One, they don't want to give the Outfits such a profitable "Middle" that they can't pass it up...And two, because the books are expecting a lot of public money to be bet on the other side...This tells me that we just may see this line get back to 7 on Saturday, with S MISS being -120 to get the TD...Because the Outfits are so disciplined and each move so calculated, that they really don't like having to lay the extra vig on a "spread" sport...VR

 

NFL "TRUE-STEAM" for 11-1-09 :

1.) SF/IND TOTAL opened 46.5...Now 44

This is one of those bets made by the Wiseguys that we can be 100% sure, they absolutely love...The reason for this is simple...They could have easily waited for the books to possibly adjust this line "UP" to a "Key Total" like 47...or even better, based on the fact the betting public will be unloading on the OVER on game-day...In fact, I personally expect this to be the most lop-sided bet total of the day in the NFL...And if I'm that sure, there is no doubt in my mind that the Outfits were aware of this as well...But with that said, it's also obvious that the Total they made for this game is so much LOWER than what the oddsmakers/bookmakers posted...Because there wasn't a second wasted on getting down...And when CRIS first opened the Total at 46.5, they immediately got bet into so hard...that they adjusted the line a whole 1 1/2 Points...All the way down to 45...It happend so quickly, that by the time Pinny decided to begin booking the game...only minutes later, they opened their Total at 45...That is where the majority of off-shore books who open a little later on Sunday, as well as the Las Vegas books, opened this Total...The Wiseguys ceased betting, and on Monday morning...this Total was 45 all across the board...That is until the Outfits felt there was still some Value there, and sent out another "Buy Order" on UNDER 45...Forcing the adjustment down to 44.5...LINE PREDICTION : Since that 2nd move was made on Monday, we are seeing books like the Greek, who cater to Wiseguy action, offer this Total at 44...While those books who more or less refuse Wiseguy money, and cater to the public, like Bodog...using 44.5...We can be sure that weather won't be a factor, and because so much got bet already, I don't expect the Outfits to "Steam" the UNDER again...And when the betting public starts firing their OVER bets into the books, we should see this one get back to 45 on game-day...VR

 

Those are the "5" EARLY MOVES that offer us the most Value, when compared to my own Lines (Ratings)...The biggest difference, which you probably picked up on...is that the Outfits are now being much more patient in their attack...In fact, friends who I spoke with that are actually some of the guys who are placing these bets for the Betting Syndicates, all said that this is planned...And the reason for this is because the sportsbooks have such little confidence in the oddsmakers these days...that they refuse to take high limits on their opening lines...In fact, they aren't even offering normal limits on most of these numbers...So it didn't take the Outfits long to realize that they should wait until more outs begin making book, so that they can get more money down on the "Steam"...

The only problem faced by doing this...is that some of the Outfits may not exercise the same patience as others...Which may make them step out and try to take a position before it may no longer be available...And since these Betting Syndicates end up on most of the same bets...as soon as one decides to make a move...the rest are also forced to begin getting down...

I'm interested to see how this plays out over these next few weeks...Because we weren't seeing this happen very much at all early on this season...And I'm also interested to see how the sportsbooks intend to counter this change in approach...

 

That's going to do it for this week's "TRUE STEAM"...We have "5" EARLY MOVES for next weekend's NCAAFB & NFL games...So let's see if we can do like the Wiseguys, and "Grind-Away" at Profit...

I want to Thank You all for your continued support, and wish you all the Best of Luck...Vegas-Runner

 

*** Check Out My Pros Page for Info, Updates, Results, Schedules, Blogs & More...Each & Every Day (Updated Daily)

Email Share Sent

Your share has been sent.

x

Quick View

Loading...

Future Game

League:

Teams:

Date:

Time:

Pick:

Bet Type:

Odds:

Picked:

Contests: ,

Full Pick Details

x

Multi Quick View

Loading...

Pick Name
Odds: Odds
Picked: Stamp

x

Quick View

Rank:

Member:

Team:

Wins:

Losses:

Ties:

x

Pregame.com Join Contest

x