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    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
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    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Thur 1-7-09

Allright gentlemen...we only have 1 NBA game on tonight, due to the BCS Championship...And since my Ratings/Numbers support the "Early Move" that was made by the Betting Syndicates this morning...I decided that we would use the play, as tonight's isolated bet...

Like I said on this week's Video Pod-Casts...These next 2 weeks are extremely dangerous if you don't know how to approach them...Because with more and more football bettors making their way over to basketball...the oddsmakers will be forced to make some adjustments...

In the past, I've seen the Wiseguys get ahead of this adjustment and do some real damage...While other times, I've seen the books get the best of them...

So keep that in mind as we move on these "STEAM PLAYS"...And together we'll be able to see in no time, who is ahead of who in this battle...VR

 

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-7-09 :

1.) OVER 197 CHA/NYK....Total Now 199

This is actually a total that I had circled because I felt that based on the last 2 meetings between these 2 teams, the oddsmakers would be forced to over-adjust, due to "public perception"...rather than "true strength"...Because if you look at the current form for BOTH of these teams, you will notice that their Offenses are clicking (Both Teams FG% has INCREASED Over L/5 Games)...And when the books hung the Total up, only 1Pt higher than they did for the last meeting...I expected to see the Wiseguys take a strong position, if my Ratings/Numbers were accurate...

Fortunately, I wasn't disappointed...Just the opposite...And although the Outfits left the Total alone when the number went up last night...today is a different story...What you need to always remember is that the Opening Lines Off-Shore have "Low Limits"...Especially when you are flagged as a "Wiseguy"...So it becomes advantageous for the Betting Syndicates to wait until more books offer a line on the game they are looking to bet...Especially when it's a Total, which the limits for are almost always lower to begin with...

That's what happened here...as the Wiseguys showed up bright and early to blast the OVER in this match-up...They hit it at 197, 197.5, 198, & 198.5...And that's when the sportsbooks decided that they have had enough...and went ahead and adjusted this line up to 200...Well after the Outfits had taken a huge position on the Total...VR

LINE PREDICTION : Because we've seen so many NBA games fall very close to the total offered, the Betting Syndicates always see "value" in working a "middle" on Totals...In fact, this practice even forced books like MGM/Mirage to use a ML on Totals...in an effort to turn-off "middle seekers"...This is why I believe that we are now seeing 199 & 199.5 all across the board...And although it won't receive much "volume", I do feel that the betting public will be split on the Total for this game...So they shouldn't provide any added pressure for the books on this Total...With that said, barring another "Buy-Order" on the OVER...which is definitely not out of the question, since according to my "Line"...there is still plenty of value on the OVER...we probably won't see too much movement...VR

I do expect that this will be on my Card for Tonight...Because like I said above, there really is still some more value on the OVER for us to take advantage of...And with all the attention on the BCS Championship game, I think that we will be able to get some added value in NBA & CBB tonight...

Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.

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