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  • Created On:
    09/07/2011 9:56 PM
  • Last Update:
    01/17/2019 7:25 AM

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Fri (37-20 for 65%) !!

Allright fellas, we had a loser in the NBA last night...and are now "37-20" (65% ATS) since launching this Blog...And as proud as I am about those results, I'm even prouder to see that so many up and coming handicappers are really learning a lot...And that they otherwise may have never had the opportunity to truely see how the Betting Syndicates approach sports betting...and the different ways that they use to beat this market...year in and year out...

The Bottom Line is that I do put a lot of time and work into each blog that I publish...And I also make sure to try and pass along the kind of "Steam" that will produce a long-term profit...Just like it does for the Wiseguys...

But with that said...I am also simply educating bettors...and giving them accurate information about what is happening, and what is behind a lot of those "early moves"...In the end, as handicappers...the decision on how you are going to use this information is ultimately yours...

I have built a small army of sources which include Bookmakers, Pro Sports Bettors, Runners, ect...And what I do each day is gather as much information from each as I possibly can...But then, it's all up to me to try and make sense of it...and decide how to use it...

That's exactly what I wish that bettors do with this Blog, and all of the "Bets & Info" that I try and pass along here at Pregame...Since day 1, my main priority and true goal as a "paid handicapper" to become a strong source of information for bettors...And more importantly, to try and educate bettors...the same way that I was educated by so many extremely sharp professionals...

With that, let's see if we can cash this NBA "move" tonight...and head into the weekend off an NBA winner...VR


NBA "TRUE STEAM" for 1-8-10 =

1.) MIAMI HEAT opened +7....Now +6

These are the type of moves that always used to baffle me when I was a "runner"...Because since I was a bookmaker prior, I had developed a pretty good sense of knowing where the "public money" was going to go each day...And when we would get that "Buy-Order" at 7am on a team that I just knew the public would be betting heavy that would piss me off, because I thought that by waiting...we would have gotten a better line...But as I said previously, when I moved here to Vegas to apply my craft...I was shocked by the amount of Betting Syndicates that were in Vegas doing the exact same things that we were...Some at a higher level, and others at a lower one...And that's when it all began making sense...And I realized that just like the stock market, and any other's going to be a daily race to get the "Best Price" on each position that we were going to take...

Tonight's game is one of those examples of the Betting Syndicates competing against each other for the best price...And as soon as the line went up on Thursday afternoon, the race to get +7 on MIAMI was on...I wasn't surprised because I had made my "True Line" a bit lower, and I also wasn't surprised when they stopped betting it after the books adjusted down to 6.5 because by that time...almost EVERY sportsbook had a line on this match-up, so I was pretty sure that the Wiseguys were able to get down what they had hoped +7...

But then this morning...I did get surprised, because the Betting Syndicates came back...and they came back strong...Betting MIAMI +6.5 and even +6...Forcing the books to eventually drop this line all the way to 5.5...

That tells us that not only did the Outfits see "Line Value" in this wager...but they also saw "Handicapping Value", because after having time to work on the match-up...they were willing to come back and take a lower number...VR

LINE PREDICTION : This just shows you how much respect the sportsbooks have for these Betting Syndicates...Because even though they expect the public to come in one-sided on PHO...they still went ahead and adjusted for that "Steam"...They do this because they know these Wiseguys are going to win more bets than they lose...And rather than try to guess when they are going to be wrong, they've decided long ago to respect each wager...I've worked with those Betting Syndicates long enough to know that the books are correct, but not only do these guys win more than they lose...but they bet like robots and when they get ahead, you will never see that money again...For tonight's game, I would truely be shocked if the Wiseguys sent out another "Buy-Order"...because as I mentioned above, they took a very significant position already...Therefore, I expect the books to eventually adjust this number back up to at least 6...With the shops the cater to the public more than the Outfits possibly going back to as high as 6.5...

So if you plan on followin the "Steam"...then I feel you shouldn't lose any value by waiting, and in will probably get some more as we approach tip-off...

For those who disagree, and plan on backin the Suns...I would go ahead and lay -6 now, because I highly doubt that you will get better...


Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck...Remember, over the next 2-3 weeks...the oddsmakers/bookmakers will be looking to adjust their Ratings, to accomidate all of the public bettors who will now make their way over to basketball...And while these adjustments take place, it's good to be cautious...and try to determine if this is on of those seasons, where the Wiseguys are ahead of the books...Best of Luck, Vegas-Runner.

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